Week 5 Expected Points: Nico Collins Blending Volume & Efficiency

Earlier this week, I published my Week 4 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.

For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.

In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.

Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Running Backs

Week 4 Expected Points

Dameon Pierce (HOU, 16.8 Expected Points)

It hasn't been a fun season for Dameon Pierce. The second-year back has rushed for 64-181-1, averaging 2.8 YPC while ranking fifth in stuff rate (53.1 percent) and 27th in yards before contact (0.34). His 55.5 expected points rank 13th amongst all running backs, while his -16.6 FPOE ranks 109th — trailing only Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, and Alexander Mattison.

Fantasy managers who took a shot on Pierce as the Texan's RB1 have seen a 30 percent opportunity share result in nothing but disappointment thus far.

Things have been bleak for Pierce, but fantasy managers who have held on thus far could soon be rewarded for their faith — although we wouldn't hold out hope for Week 5.

Houston has a few more difficult matchups to get through before their Week 7 bye, but their opponents in Weeks 8-13 offer some optimism.

If there's a disgruntled fantasy manager in your league still holding Pierce, it could be worth floating a trade offer for him, as his breakout moment could be just a few weeks away. Assuming the Texans don't give up on Pierce for a slow start, his volume suggests he's a future smash against some of the worst run defenses in the league.

Isiah Pacheco (KC, 14.1 Expected Points)

I mentioned Pacheco in my Week 4 snap report earlier this week, highlighting his consistent uptick in snaps throughout the season. Pacheco has slowly taken over the snaps in Kansas City's backfield, and as you might expect, the opportunities have followed.

Since Week 1, here is how Pacheco's opportunities have shaped up.

Pacheco made the most of his 23 looks in last Sunday's win over the Bears, totaling 20 carries for 115 yards and one touchdown while adding another three receptions for 43 yards through the air. Pacheco's 10.7 FPOE ranked fourth amongst ball carriers on the week, while his 14.1 expected points were tied for 14th-most.

Few running backs in the league have been better than Pacheco, who is top five in:

• YCO/ATT (3.75)

• Breakaway Percentage (41.8%)

• Missed Tackles Forced Rate (29.1%)

• PFF Elusiveness Rating (115.2)

Pacheco has also slowly crept into the passing game, fading Jerick McKinnon into irrelevance through four weeks.

Pacheco gets another chance to lead the Chiefs in Week 5 against the Vikings, whose defense is ranked ninth in yards before contact per attempt (1.13 YBCO/ATT) and allows the third-lowest explosive run rate at 1.6 percent. However, it is worth noting that three of their four matchups came against the Buccaneers, Austin Ekeler-less Chargers, and Panthers, among the league's worst on the ground. The Vikings were on skates in Week 2 against D'Andre Swift when he ripped off a career-high 28-175-1 in prime time.

I'm firing up Pacheco wherever I have him until he gives me a reason to do otherwise.

Jaylen Warren (PIT, 12.5 Expected Points)

The rushing effort out of Pittsburgh has been underwhelming. While Najee Harris leads the team with 49-210-0 on the ground (4.3 YPC), he's also 10th in the league in stuff rate at 49 percent. Nearly all of Harris' yards are coming after contact, which sounds great in theory, but would be far more impressive if his offensive line wasn't ranked 27th in YBCO/ATT (0.79).

Running behind the same offensive line as Harris, Jaylen Warren is doing slightly better on the ground, averaging 1.12 YBCO/ATT on his own and forcing missed tackles at a 40 percent rate.

Neither back is getting fantasy managers overly excited, but Warren's receiving upside continues to give him the highest floor of the two.

Warren's 18-127-0 receiving line leads the Steelers' backfields through four weeks and is well ahead of the four receptions for 34 yards Harris has. When stacked against the other backs in the league, Warren's 44.9 expected fantasy points through three weeks ranks 25th, but his 32.6 expected points through target volume alone are good for fourth-most.

Fully committing to Warren could bode well for the Steelers, but that doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon. In the meantime, the only Steelers running back who isn't touchdown-dependent is Warren, who is outscoring Harris 39.1 to 28.4 on the season.

Both backs will be hard to trust in Week 5 against the Ravens, but the Ravens are allowing 6.3 targets and 4.8 receptions per game to opposing running backs, which could keep Warren's PPR floor somewhat intact for the week.

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Wide Receivers

Week 4 Expected Points

Romeo Doubs (GB, 19.7 Expected Points)

Romeo Doubs was limited by injuries to start the season but has now had 21.2 and 19.7 expected points in his last two outings.

His 25 targets over the last two weeks are tied for third-most with Keenan Allen and trail only Davante Adams and A.J. Brown. The return of Christian Watson could drive that total down a bit in recent weeks — as could positive game scripts. The Packers are 1-1 in their last two games, as they needed a heroic fourth quarter from Jordan Love to win in Week 3 against the Saints and spent all of Week 4 trailing the Lions. Of the 133 plays the Packers have run over the last two weeks, 130 came when the team was tied or trailing.

Doubs isn't blowing anybody away with his efficiency metrics, but among receivers with at least 25 targets, he ranks 15th with a 12.2 aDOT and is 21st of 39 receivers in yards per route run. His six end zone targets are three more than the next closest receiver on his team and make up 46.2 percent of his team's end zone targets this season. His 26 percent target share also ranks 16th in the league.

With a Monday night road matchup against the Raiders on tap, the Packers currently sit as 1.5-point underdogs on the books, suggesting another negative game script could be in store. One would also assume Davante Adams is looking forward to going off against his former team in a revenge game.

Watson only played on 47 percent of the snaps in Week 4 — a number that is sure to increase in Week 5. While we should expect a slight decline in targets for Doubs as Watson continues to get ramped up, I wouldn't be too down on Doubs against a bad Raiders secondary.

Nico Collins (HOU, 15.4 Expected Points)

If I had told you this off-season that Nico Collins would be the most efficient wide receiver in fantasy through four weeks, I would have had to change my name and address. A darling of the fantasy community since entering the league in 2021, many in the analytics community insisted it was only a matter of time before Collins finally had his day in the sun.

Well, that day may have finally come, thanks to the arrival of C.J. Stroud and offensive coordinator "PFF" Bobby Slowik.

Collins has emerged as the Texans' No. 1 receiver through the first four weeks, leading them with 22 receptions for 428 yards and three scores on a team-high 32 targets. Collins' 29.8 FPOE leads the league, while his 53 expected fantasy points are good for 20th. Amongst receivers with 25 or more targets, Collins also grades out at an elite level in several efficiency metrics.

As long as the Texans continue to be thought leaders in the passing game, I expect Collins' string of success to continue. Houston is only throwing at a 52 percent rate in neutral game scripts but ramps that up to a 67 percent rate when trailing. They're also in the upper half of the league when it comes to running no-huddle offense (13 percent in a neutral script) and rank 10th in play-action dropbacks.

Everything the Texans have done offensively has worked to perfection for Collins and Stroud, who is yet to throw an interception on the season. Collins and the Texans get a tough road matchup against a Falcons defense that's allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game, but he's a must-start as a high-end WR2, given his production to open the season.

Michael Wilson (ARI, 12.5 Expected Points)

Cardinals rookie receiver Michael Wilson saw a career-high seven targets in last week's loss to the 49ers. He hauled in all seven of those targets for 76 yards and two touchdowns, turning in an exciting 26.6 PPR performance on the day.

A third-round pick who dealt with injuries throughout his career at Stanford, Wilson impressed throughout training camp and stepped into a starting role for the Cardinals right out of the gate. He's quickly established himself as a big playmaker, averaging 16.9 YPR to go with an aDOT of 16.0, and has gone for 56 or more yards in three of his four games this season.

While Week 4 was exciting, fantasy managers should temper expectations for Wilson heading into Week 5 against the Bengals. Per the FantasyPoints Data Suite, Wilson has been the first read on just 15.7 percent of his targets, which trails both Marquise Brown (32.6 percent) and Zach Ertz (24.7 percent) in first read targets.

Those playing in deeper leagues could consider starting Wilson against a Bengals secondary that's been targeted 21 times on passes of 20-plus yards — the second-most of any team in the league (Eagles, 24). Opposing receivers have hauled in seven of those deep targets for 287 yards, the sixth-most yards on said attempts.

DeAndre Hopkins (TEN, 10.3 Expected Points)

If there's one thing we know for certain, DeAndre Hopkins didn't go to Tennessee to chase a ring with Ryan Tannehill. The 2-2 Titans have largely gotten by on a top-10 defense that's ranked eighth in points allowed per game (17.5) and 12th in total yards allowed. Offensively, they're outside the top 20 in both points and yards per game.

Still, Hopkins has been funneled 29 percent of the Titans' targets this season, averaging 7.8 targets per game in a low-volume passing attack, and is averaging just below 10 fantasy points per game.

While the WR49 fantasy production hasn't been impressive, Hopkins expected fantasy points total (49.6) ranks 28th amongst receivers — putting him in fringe WR2/WR3 territory.

Like Wilson, Hopkins also gets a defense prone to giving up big passes. The Colts are allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game overall and have surrendered a reception on passes 20-plus yards downfield on 5-of-9 targets. On passes that have traveled 15-plus yards downfield, the Colts have allowed 22 receptions — the most in the league.

Hopkins has yet to find the end zone but has seen three of the team's four end zone targets. Fantasy managers stashing him in hopes of a big week could see things payoff against the Colts in Week 5.

Tight Ends

Week 4 Expected Points

Jake Ferguson (DAL, 12.5 Expected Points)

Through the season's first four weeks, Jake Ferguson has been one of Dak Prescott's favorite targets.

Ferguson has seen seven targets in three of four games this season and is tied for the sixth-most targets amongst tight ends (25). Ferguson has had double-digit expected points in every game this season and is the No. 1 tight end in expected fantasy points with 52.1 — sorry, Swifties.

Currently one of the better fantasy tight ends in the league, Ferguson could be in line for another big day against a 49ers defense that allows seven targets per game to opposing TE1s but has allowed just 22 yards per game to said tight ends.

Still, Prescott has gone out of his way to make Ferguson the second-most targeted player on the team. His 25 targets are eight ahead of the 17 targets Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup have seen and 10 more than Brandin Cooks has received.

Ferguson's volume has put him in near must-start territory until further notice.