Spread Options: College football Week 6 picks against the spread
It’s hard to believe we’ve already reached Week 6 of the college football season, but there are some big games on tap this weekend.
I’ll have a few of those games on my card as I hope to continue building momentum with another winning week. I’ve had two winning weeks in a row, going 9-4 combined over the last two weeks to get to 18-15 on the year.
Let’s keep the good vibes going.
Last week: 4-2
Overall: 18-15
No. 23 LSU at No. 21 Missouri
Time: Noon | TV: ESPN | Line: LSU -5.5 | Total: 64.5
This LSU team doesn’t really require a deep level of analysis.
LSU has one of the best offenses in the country and a really bad defense. I'm not quite sure how good Missouri is, but it certainly has the weapons on offense to exploit this struggling LSU secondary.
Mizzou coach Eli Drinkwitz knows how to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers, and Luther Burden has been thriving since his move into the slot. I'm not going to overthink this one.
Pick: Over 64.5
No. 13 Washington State at UCLA
Time: 3 p.m. | TV: P12 | Line: UCLA -3.5 | Total: 59
Washington State is off to a 4-0 start and looked great its last time out in a home win over Oregon State. The WSU offense was clicking on all cylinders as Cam Ward threw for 404 yards and four touchdowns in the win. UCLA, meanwhile, managed to score only seven points in a road loss to Utah.
Both teams are coming off a bye, and I’m expecting strong performances from both offenses. Though this is probably the strongest defense Chip Kelly has had at UCLA, the Bruins’ strength lies in the trenches. Washington State barely tries to run the ball, and the combination of quick passes and downfield shots are going to give a leaky Bruins secondary some issues.
At the same time, I think UCLA will be able to run the ball on Washington State even though the Bruins are pretty mediocre on the offensive line. Entering the season, I had major concerns about WSU’s personnel losses in the middle of the defense and Dante Moore and the Bruins offense should be able to turn in a much better performance after the off week.
To me, this feels like a game where both teams score in the 30s, so I like the over.
Pick: Over 59
Purdue at Iowa
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: Peacock | Line: Iowa -2.5 | Total: 38.5
Even with QB Cade McNamara out for the season, this feels like a good buy-low spot for Iowa. McNamara was already playing injured, so having to turn to Deacon Hill doesn’t change much about the way I look at Iowa and its underwhelming offense.
Iowa is always going to lean on its advantages in the trenches and special teams play to win games, and the Hawkeyes are a significantly more physical team than Purdue. Purdue is coming off a win over Illinois and now has to go into a tough environment in Iowa City. The Boilermakers have been a pretty sloppy team this year, and Iowa is not the kind of team you can be loose with the football against.
Iowa is 9-2 against the spread in its last 11 games as a favorite of a touchdown or less at home. With a total this low, Iowa can grind out a win by a touchdown or so.
Pick: Iowa -2.5
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 25 Louisville
Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: ABC | Line: ND -6.5 | Total: 54.5
Based solely on talent, I’d lay the points here with Notre Dame. But there are so many factors going against the Irish in this spot.
Notre Dame is playing its third consecutive prime-time game and second straight on the road in a difficult stadium. The Irish lost a heartbreaker to Ohio State in the literal last second of regulation and then put together an incredible drive to beat Duke in the final minute last week.
The Irish are playing their seventh consecutive game without a bye and have a massive game with USC next week. Can this team really come out and play at a high level again? That’s asking a lot from an emotion and energy standpoint.
Louisville, meanwhile, played last Friday and barely eked out a road win over NC State to stay undefeated. The Cardinals did not play particularly well, but they’ve had an extra day to prepare and Jeff Brohm is a plus-value coach. Brohm knows how to scheme up some plays for his offense to put points on the board, but Jack Plummer is just not a trustworthy quarterback whatsoever.
Instead of backing the home underdog, I much prefer the under. Both teams play at a slow pace and I believe Notre Dame’s defense is the best unit in this game. The Irish can force Plummer into mistakes while leaning on the run game on offense.
Pick: Under 54.5
San Jose State at Boise State
Time: 8 p.m. | TV: CBSSN | Line: Boise -9.5 | Total: 58.5
I have not liked what I’ve seen from Boise State this season. The schedule has been tough, but the Broncos’ inconsistencies on both sides of the ball have been uncharacteristic for this program.
Ordinarily I’d look at this as a get-right spot at home for Boise State, but this team really lacks an identity on offense and is just flat-out bad on defense. The Broncos are allowing 6.84 yards per play, a mark that ranks No. 129 out of 133 FBS teams.
San Jose State is not as bad as its 1-4 record shows. The Spartans lost to USC and Oregon State and then lost a very close road game to Toledo. SJSU opened Mountain West play at home vs. Air Force and led at halftime before the Falcons’ option attack just wore down the Spartans’ defense in the second half.
Chevan Cordeiro is one of the best QBs in the Mountain West. And coming off a bye, this is a spot where San Jose State can give Boise State a scare. Over the last five seasons, SJSU is 12-4 ATS as an underdog of seven or more points.
Pick: San Jose State +9.5
No. 15 Oregon State at Cal
Time: 10 p.m. | TV: P12 | Line: OSU -9.5 | Total: 51.5
I don't put too much stock in Oregon State’s 21-7 win over Utah last week. It was a really advantageous spot for the Beavers against a Utah team that is dealing with so many injuries.
The Beavers can really run the ball, but I have very little confidence in DJ Uiagalelei and the passing game. I also think OSU’s defense will prove to be average as the Pac-12 season progresses. That includes this weekend’s trip to Cal, which improved to 3-2 with a win over Arizona State last week.
It wasn’t the cleanest game played by the Golden Bears, but I think Justin Wilcox will get a much more focused effort from his group this week. Cal is 11-4-1 ATS as a home underdog under Wilcox. And when the spread is at least a touchdown, the Golden Bears are 7-1 ATS.
Pick: Cal +9.5
