Spread Options: College football Week 5 picks against the spread

We've got another intriguing collection of games on tap this week in college football. It may not be the six ranked vs. ranked matchups we saw last week, but there are a lot of opportunities on the board here.

I'm coming off a good week, winning on five of my seven Week 4 picks to get back over .500 on the year. Let's keep the good vibes going.

Last week: 5-2

Overall: 14-13

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas

Time: Noon ET | TV: SECN | Line: Texas A&M -6.5 | Total: 53.5

Texas A&M will be without starting QB Conner Weigman for the foreseeable future, so the Aggies will turn to Max Johnson. Luckily, Johnson has plenty of starting experience in the SEC, so it’s not a big dropoff for the offense. That’s especially true when he’s surrounded by as many weapons as he has.

Johnson and the A&M passing game should be able to thrive against a porous Arkansas secondary. But I don’t want to lay the points here with A&M. Arkansas is desperate for a win after losing back-to-back heartbreakers to BYU and LSU. The A&M defense only gave up seven points last week to Auburn, but I think that was more about the ineptitude of the Auburn QBs. Arkansas will move the ball on D.J. Durkin’s defense, especially if RB Rocket Sanders returns from injury.

I think the winner of this game will score in the mid-30s, so I’m going over the total.

Pick: Over 53.5

No. 13 LSU at No. 20 Ole Miss

Time: 6 p.m. | TV: ESPN | Line: LSU -2.5 | Total: 67.5

Brian Kelly has been a good coach to bet on when his team is coming off an uninspired effort. The Tigers blasted Mississippi State a few weeks after a gross second-half vs. Florida State. Last week, LSU was not sharp early at home vs. Arkansas and needed a late field goal just to escape with a win. I’m expecting a much more focused Tigers team on Saturday in Oxford.

LSU has serious concerns with its secondary and Lane Kiffin will be able to exploit that a few times. But over the course of 60 minutes, I don’t envision the Ole Miss offensive line holding up vs. LSU’s front seven, nor do I think the Rebels can stop Jayden Daniels and the LSU offense. LSU’s collection of receivers is one of the nation’s best and Logan Diggs seems to have emerged as the top running back.

Ole Miss has not responded well to adversity during Kiffin’s tenure. The Rebels are 1-4-1 ATS after a loss and 3-6 ATS against ranked opponents. I try to be selective with road favorites, but this is a spot I like.

Pick: LSU -2.5

No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 17 Duke

Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: ABC | Line: ND -5.5 | Total: 54.5

After the brutal last-second loss to Ohio State, Notre Dame has to get up off the mat and face a Duke team playing one of its biggest games ever.

It’s hard to know how a team will react to something like that, but I tend to think the Irish will be ready to go. However, the same concerns I voiced last week about Notre Dame apply in this game, too. I don’t think ND’s receivers are very good. Duke head coach Mike Elko is one of the top defensive minds in the sport and should be able to corral the ND passing attack.

Notre Dame may be best suited to just use its physicality to wear Duke down. That means running the ball and also playing an aggressive style of defense against Riley Leonard and the Duke offense. Both teams play slowly, ranking No. 115 (ND) and No. 116 (Duke) in plays per game. I’m expecting a low-scoring game.

Pick: Under 54.5

South Carolina at No. 21 Tennessee

Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: SECN | Line: UT -12.5 | Total: 63.5

Spencer Rattler caught a lot of heat earlier in his career, but he’s emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the country this season. He caught fire late in 2022 and that has carried over to 2023 even with South Carolina struggling up front. Xavier Legette has emerged as South Carolina’s top receiver with Juice Wells out and I think the Gamecocks will find more success through the air on Saturday night in Knoxville.

On the other side, Tennessee is going to be very motivated with the loss to South Carolina from last year in mind. The Vols should be able to move the ball on a South Carolina defense that just gave up more than 500 yards to Mississippi State. But if this turns into a shootout, I trust Spencer Rattler to make big throws way more than I trust Tennessee’s Joe Milton. Milton just isn’t consistent enough with his accuracy, nor is he a dangerous scrambler like Rattler.

Tennessee should win this game, but the number is too big.

Pick: South Carolina +12.5

West Virginia at TCU

Time: 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN2 | Line: TCU -12.5 | Total: 52.5

West Virginia has won three straight, including home wins over Pitt and Texas Tech. In those wins, WVU combined for 467 yards while averaging just 3.7 yards per play.

Garrett Greene, WVU’s starting quarterback, was injured early in the Pitt game, so the Mountaineers had to turn to backup Nicco Marchiol. Marchiol ran the ball well against Texas Tech, but went a combined 18-of-30 for 138 yards, two touchdowns and two INTs as a passer. Greene, who is nursing an ankle injury, could return for Saturday's game at TCU but he’s not a great passer either and WVU just doesn’t have many weapons on offense.

I think the Mountaineers are going to have a lot of trouble moving the ball against the Horned Frogs. At the same time, I trust WVU’s defense enough to make this an ugly game.

Pick: Under 52.5

(Editor's note: Oregon State beat Utah, 21-7, on Friday night.)

No. 10 Utah at No. 19 Oregon State

Time: 9 p.m. (Fri) | TV: FS1 | Line: OSU -3.5 | Total: 44.5

Oregon State is coming off a disappointing defensive performance in the loss to Washington State. WSU gashed the Beavers through the air, but Utah doesn’t have the offensive firepower to do the same even if Cam Rising finally comes back from injury. If he does return, he’s walking into a really difficult environment having gone 10 months without playing. If not, Nate Johnson, a limited passer, will continue to play and will encounter the toughest road venue he’s seen in his young career. And he may do it without top rusher Ja’Quinden Jackson, who injured his ankle vs. UCLA.

Oregon State is not built to play from behind like it did vs. WSU, but this matchup should allow the Beavers to play by a more preferred game script. DJ Uiagalelei has not been an efficient passer, but he can get tough yards in the running game to go with the stellar running back duo of Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick. The Beavers are 12-2 ATS as a home favorite under Jonathan Smith while the Utes are 4-8-1 ATS on the road in the last three seasons. I think Oregon State wins this by a touchdown.

Pick: Oregon State -3.5