Predicting the CFP: What does committee do with Oregon and Ohio State after Week 13?
Another week has passed, and once again, the college football landscape has been largely devoid of chaos near the top of the rankings.
That’s not to say that the upsets didn’t give a great effort on Saturday of Rivalry Week, the final week of the regular season. We saw No. 1 Georgia win by a single score, while No. 4 Washington got a game-winning field goal at the horn in the Apple Cup, and No. 8 Alabama managed a miraculous game-winning touchdown on 4th and 31 with under a minute remaining in the Iron Bowl.
Elsewhere, No. 5 Florida State survived, while the No. 6 Oregon Ducks blew the doors off of No. 15 Oregon State in the Civil War. Meanwhile, the biggest result was between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan, where the Wolverines won The Big Game for the third straight season.
That now leaves us with an interesting question for the College Football Playoff committee — where do they rank the Buckeyes?
You could argue that with their resume and their close loss to the No. 3 Wolverines, they are the best one-loss team in the nation, surpassing the Ducks. However, should the committee rank Ohio State ahead of Oregon, it won’t matter much in the final rankings, since the Ducks play Washington in the Pac-12 title game, while Ohio State will be sitting at home.
It will be an interesting decision to watch play out. In the meantime, here’s our prediction for how the rankings will look after Week 13:
Michigan Wolverines
Michael Allio-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 30-24 Win vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 3
Analysis: I believe that if you are the No. 3 team in the nation, and you beat the No. 2 team in the nation, you should move up to the No. 1 team in the nation. Michigan won The Game for a third-straight year, and they are now virtually a lock to make it to the College Football Playoff.
Georgia Bulldogs
Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 31-23 Win vs. Georgia Tech
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 1
Analysis: Georgia took care of business and beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, though it wasn’t always pretty. They’ve got a huge test next week against Alabama in the SEC Championship. If they win, they’re obviously in the playoffs.
Washington Huskies
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 24-21 Win vs. Washington State
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 4
Analysis: Washington needed a last-second field goal to win the Apple Cup, but they made history on Saturday, becoming the first team in Pac-12 history to go undefeated in the conference. Now they get a rematch against Oregon in the Pac-12 title game where they are already 8-point underdogs, with a CFP spot on the line.
Florida State Seminoles
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 24-15 Win vs. Florida
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 5
Analysis: Without Jordan Travis, it’s clear that this Florida State team is not worthy of a playoff spot, but they might still get one should they beat a very average Louisville team in the ACC title game next week.
Oregon Ducks
Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 31-7 Win vs. No. 16 Oregon State
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 6
Analysis: The Ducks had one of the most convincing rivalry week wins, dispatching with the No. 16 Beavers in dominant fashion, setting up a rematch with the Washington Huskies, this time in the conference championship with a CFP spot on the line.
I have Oregon ranked ahead of Ohio State, but I would not be surprised to see the committee put tOSU at No. 5, and keep Oregon at No. 6. In the end, it won’t matter as long as the Ducks can win the conference title. If they do that, they’re in the playoff.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Barbara Perenic/Columbus Dispatch
Week 13 Result: 30-24 Loss vs. No. 3 Michigan
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 2
Analysis: After suffering their first loss of the season, Ohio State drops down from No. 2 to No. 6 for me. Again, I could see them being put at No. 5 by the committee, but it won’t matter much in the end, since they don’t have a chance to play for a Big Ten title.
Texas Longhorns
Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 57-7 Win vs. Texas Tech
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 7
Analysis: Texas got a big win over Texas Tech, blowing them out to clinch their spot in the Big 12 title game where they will face Oklahoma State next week. Should the Longhorns win that game, they’ve got a good argument to get into the playoffs, and will be hoping for a loss from Florida State.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Week 13 Result: 27-24 Win vs. Auburn
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 8
Analysis: Alabama needed a miracle against Auburn, and they got it. Down 4 with under a minute left and facing a 4th and goal from the 31, the Crimson Tide got an insane touchdown that won them the game and kept their playoff hopes alive, much to the dismay of Oregon Duck fans.
Missouri Tigers
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 48-14 Win vs. Arkansas
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 9
Analysis: Missouri got a big win and likely clinched a spot in a New Years Six bowl game, though they are out of the running for a spot in the playoffs.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 42-0 Win vs. Michigan State
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 11
Analysis: Penn State’s dominant win over Michigan State was impressive, but at this point in the season, they are playing for nothing more than a New Years Six bowl.
Ole Miss Rebels
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 17-7 Win vs. Mississippi State
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 12
Oklahoma Sooners
Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 69-45 Win vs. TCU
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 13
LSU Tigers
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 42-30 Win vs. Texas A&M
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 14
Arizona Wildcats
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 59-23 Win vs. Arizona State
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 15
Louisville Cardinals
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 38-31 Loss vs. Kentucky
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 10
Iowa Hawkeyes
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 13-10 Win vs. Nebraska
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 17
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 56-23 Win vs. Stanford
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 18
Oregon State Beavers
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 31-7 Loss vs. No. 6 Oregon
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 16
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 40-34 Win vs. BYU
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 20
Tennessee Volunteers
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 48-24 Win vs. Vanderbilt
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 21
NC State Wolfpack
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 39-20 Win vs. North Carolina
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 22
Kansas State Wildcats
Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 42-35 Loss vs. Iowa State
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 19
Tulane Green Wave
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 29-16 Win vs. UTSA
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 23
Clemson Tigers
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 16-7 Win vs. South Carolina
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 24
Liberty Flames
Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 Result: 42-28 Win vs. UTEP
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 25
