How Andrew Painter's pending elbow surgery will impact Phillies trade deadline plans

PHILADELPHIA − There are so many permutations on what the Phillies can do leading up to the Aug. 1 trade deadline.

But whether they do nothing, or go after a big bat, or a starting pitcher, depends on two players doing something they have never done before at the major league level.

For Bryce Harper, that's playing first base. For 20-year-old phenom Andrew Painter, that's pitching.

The Phillies already got one answer when they announced Wednesday that they're recommending Tommy John surgery for Painter, who's still feeling discomfort in his elbow nearly five months after making his spring training debut.

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Painter has a surgical consultation with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday in Los Angeles. If ElAttrache agrees with the Phillies' assessment, it's possible that Painter could miss the 2024 season as well.

That clearly puts the Phillies in the market for a starting pitcher, most likely a back-of-the-rotation guy to provide depth.

As for Harper, if he can make the transition to first base, they can make Kyle Schwarber a designated hitter and improve both their offense and defense.

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That's the answer the Phillies are hoping for, especially now that they're going to need pitching help.

The Phillies (52-42) are 27-10 since June 3 after beating the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 on Tuesday night. That's the second-best record in all of baseball over that span, surpassed only by the otherworldly Atlanta Braves.

This time, Schwarber led off the first inning with a home run, his 26th of the season. And the Phillies benefitted from Aaron Nola’s top form. He had a perfect game going through 4⅔ innings, helped in large part by Schwarber's leaping catch at the wall in left to take away at least an extra base hit, if not a home run, from Owen Miller.

Beyond 'shocked' at Schwarber's catch

Schwarber couldn’t help but chuckle to himself as he threw the ball back in while his teammates roared from the dugout steps along with the crowd.

“Everyone’s a little shocked, I guess, that I can play left field," Schwarber said with a laugh.

And that brings us back to Harper and Painter.

Last week, Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Harper would make his debut at first base during this series against the Brewers. But it didn't happen Tuesday, and it might not happen until the Phillies play this weekend in Cleveland. If not then, it might not be until next week.

The Phillies' plan is by playing Harper at first base, they can make Schwarber, rated as one of the worst outfielders in the major leagues, the designated hitter.

Harper has been the everyday DH since returning from offseason elbow surgery on May 2. The Phillies have pretty much ruled Harper out from playing the outfield this season. Thus the work at first base.

But it hasn't happened yet, and Thomson blamed the All-Star break and the weather for this most recent delay. Since July 9, Harper has only worked out at first base last Friday and on Tuesday.

The Phillies played a day-night doubleheader last Saturday, so there wasn't a chance for work on the field. There was a three-hour rain delay before Sunday's game, again preventing Harper from working out. That was followed by a day off Monday.

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"There are no boxes to check anymore," Thomson said. "We just need to get him moving, get him out there and keep getting him ground balls and things like that. We just haven’t been able to get him out (on the field) these last few days."

The Phillies won't know if Harper can play first base adequately until he actually plays first base. And that will have to come at the major league level, in the heat of a playoff run.

"It’s really gotta be game speed," Thomson said. "And we can’t simulate that here. And we can’t send him out on a rehab assignment, so we’re just going to have to do it on the fly."

Thomson did say that even three or four games at first base before the trade deadline will be enough to determine whether the Phillies can go forward with Harper there.

If that's the case, the Phillies could either stand pat, knowing their offense should improve with Harper and Trea Turner finding their hitting stroke. Harper has only four home runs in 226 at-bats this season. Turner, meanwhile, is turning around a slow start with 10 home runs and 21 stolen bases.

Schwarber, meanwhile, is still hitting just .189. But he has thrived in the leadoff spot ever since the beginning of June, which coincides with the Phillies' run. He has 13 homers and 30 RBIs in his last 36 games, and he has homered in four straight games.

"It’s June and July. He goes on these streaks, and it’s pretty incredible," Thomson said.

What's the latest on phenom Andrew Painter?

As for Painter, the unsaid plan was for him to be their fifth starter this season. When he suffered elbow soreness in spring training, the plan was to have him pitch sometime after the All-Star break. Then he felt discomfort while preparing for a live batting practice session on July 4. He has not pitched since.

Still, the hope was that the Phillies could start ramping Painter up to be a reliever into September and the postseason. Or he could even serve as an opener, gradually working his way up to 3-4 innings.

The Phillies, at least, are in a better position to handle Painter’s absence than they were earlier in the season. That starts with Nola, who has had an up-and-down season. Over his past eight starts, he has allowed two runs or less four times. He has allowed at least four earned runs in the other four starts.

The rest of the rotation has pitched well after a slow start. And Cristopher Sanchez has taken over the fifth starter role, with a 3.26 ERA in six starts.

But there's little depth behind the five starters. And here is where Painter, even in a limited role, could have helped the Phillies.

Now they'll have to get help elsewhere, which they have done before. In 2021, they traded for Kyle Gibson, and last year at the deadline, they got Noah Syndergaard.

"All I can tell you is that we’re going to be really careful with this guy," Thomson said Tuesday before knowing the prognosis. "We’re going to take our time, and if that means if he doesn’t pitch this year, that’s what it’ll be."

And if Harper can't handle first base, can they keep relying on Schwarber to make leaping catches at the wall in left field?

"He got up there," Nola said with a laugh. "Honestly, I thought it was either gone or it was going to hit off the chain-link fence up there. That was awesome."

Contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on Twitter @Mfranknfl.

This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: How Phillies' MLB trade deadline plan rests on Andrew Painter, Harper