NFL picks against the spread: Bills face another tough, crucial game vs. Cowboys

The Buffalo Bills feel like a team that is either going to miss the playoffs or make a Super Bowl.

Everyone knows the Bills' story by now. They're a talented team that analytics identify as a top-five team, but they've dropped many close games and they are far from a lock to make the playoffs. Buffalo is less than a 50/50 shot to make the postseason, according to DVOA. A lot of that is due to some difficult remaining games.

One of the NFL's best teams is going to have to beat another top team or two to make the playoffs in a tight AFC wild-card race (though the Miami Dolphins' Week 14 loss also opened up the possibility of stealing the division). And coming off a win over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills have to face the Dallas Cowboys.

The Bills can't complain about this gauntlet of tough games. They just need to figure out ways to win.

The San Francisco 49ers might be the hottest team in the NFL, but the Cowboys aren't far behind. Dallas is coming off an impressive win over the Philadelphia Eagles, their seventh win in eight games. And it's not like the Bills will catch a Cowboys team that is letting down; Dallas is tied for first place in the NFC East and needs to keep winning to have a shot to take the division title from Philly.

If the 7-6 Bills want to make the playoffs, they probably need to get to 10 wins to feel comfortable. That means beating the Cowboys this week or the Dolphins in the finale, at very least. And then not stumbling against the Patriots or Chargers.

It is telling that the Bills are 2-point favorites at BetMGM over the Cowboys, who might be the second-best team in the NFL. The Bills are very good as well, they just don't have the record to match. It's hard to go against the Cowboys considering how well they're playing. Dak Prescott might be the MVP of the league. The defense makes big plays just about every week. The Bills are coming off intense back-to-back games against the Eagles and Chiefs, and it's not easy to stay up week after week.

Still, I'll go with the Bills. They know what's at stake. Their home crowd will too. It should be a fascinating game. And if Buffalo wins, it'll be a step closer to saving its season and making the playoffs.

Here are the picks for the Week 15 games, with odds from BetMGM:

Raiders (-3) over Chargers

This week's Thursday game will look more like it's from the preseason. Easton Stick replaces Justin Herbert for the Chargers. The Raiders are coming off a 3-0 loss. I don't mind taking teams in their first game with a backup quarterback because often they rally around the backup and play well. But the Chargers could be a team that realizes its disappointing season is beyond repair and goes in the tank the rest of the way.

Bengals (-3) over Vikings

There are three Saturday games and all of them are compelling. That makes up for Thursday night. I'm buying the Bengals. Jake Browning looks good. If you're expecting him to crash to earth, it might not happen. The Vikings are going to Nick Mullens as their fourth starting quarterback this season, and I simply think the Bengals are in much better shape going forward.

Steelers (+1.5) over Colts

Both wild-card contenders have flaws. It's hard to have much faith in the Steelers after watching their last two games. But their season is on the line, and they should be helped by a little extra rest and motivation after being embarrassed in losses to the Cardinals and Patriots.

Broncos (+4) over Lions

It has been a long time since we've seen the Lions play well. Their last four games have looked like a step back. Meanwhile, the Broncos' story stays the same: I'm not sure how they entirely turned their season around after a 1-5 start, but it is undeniable.

Browns (-3) over Bears

The Bears are playing well. But I think the Browns have a lot of energy with Joe Flacco giving them some much-needed stability at quarterback. And the Cleveland defense is very good.

Buccaneers (+3.5) over Packers

Both teams are 6-7 and the loser is going to be in some trouble in the playoff race. The Packers had been playing well before a bad loss Monday night against the Giants. That Giants game was a reminder that Green Bay has been playing better but still is mediocre at best. The Buccaneers battle every week, even on the road. It'll be close.

Texans (+3) over Titans

I don't assume C.J. Stroud will play Sunday. He's in the concussion protocol and even if he's cleared, the Texans could hold him out a week. But even though the Titans had a huge win at Miami on Sunday night, they're not very good. The Texans will rally around Davis Mills if he has to play. I think Houston will be fine even without their starting quarterback.

Jets (+8.5) over Dolphins

The Jets have to feel a little rejuvenated after seeing Zach Wilson throw for more than 300 yards last week. Maybe they won't be totally inept on offense the rest of the way. The Dolphins could rebound off a horrible loss to the Titans and win big, but I'm back to taking the Jets when they're getting a lot of points. Hopefully Wilson doesn't revert to being what he's been most of his career.

Chiefs (-8) over Patriots

I don't generally take the Chiefs because their spreads are inflated. This one is inflated a bit. But after a frustrating loss to the Bills, I can see Kansas City taking it out on a severely undermanned Patriots team. There's also the possibility that New England doesn't score in double digits.

Giants (+6) over Saints

You can't get caught up too much in narratives when picking games, but it's hard to deny this Tommy DeVito story is pretty cool. And the thing is, he's really playing well. After how bad he looked in his first two games, that's one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season. The Saints are simply not a team I'll trust as a favorite of more than a field goal.

Falcons (-3) over Panthers

Yes, feel free to do a double take on this line. The Panthers have played in 13 games and either won or lost by fewer than three points exactly once. That includes a 24-10 loss to the Falcons all the way back in Week 1. I don't like the Falcons and don't particularly want to back them as a road favorite, but what have the Panthers done to justify being just a 3-point underdog?

Rams (-6.5) over Commanders

The Commanders' defense is horrible. In its last six games, it's given up 38, 17 (against a terrible Patriots team), 29, 31, 45 and 45 points. Washington can move the ball, but even that has faded the past few games. The only thing that worries me is every single bettor who likes to play teasers is going to include the Rams this week.

49ers (-12.5) over Cardinals

You're not going to win much taking a lot of double-digit road NFL favorites. But the 49ers are a wagon right now. They are the best team in football and it's not close. I don't think Arizona can keep it close.

Ravens (-3) over Jaguars

We make the mistake of thinking that a player is healthy just because he's playing. I credit Trevor Lawrence for his toughness playing through a high ankle sprain last week, but he missed a lot of throws and that is not a two-week injury. He might not be right until very late in the season. And the Ravens will pressure him often and test his bad ankle. Normally I'd be happy to take Jacksonville as a home underdog but I didn't love what I saw from Lawrence last week.

Seahawks (+4) over Eagles

How good are the Eagles? I think it's fair to answer that we don't know. I'd really like a desperate Seahawks team if we knew Geno Smith was playing and somewhat healthy after missing last week with a groin injury. But we don't know that as of yet, and it's scary to take Drew Lock in this spot. But he did play well and the Seahawks can keep it close no matter who is at quarterback.

Last week: 9-5-1

Season to date: 105-97-6