NFL picks against the spread: Cowboys try to change result from first Eagles meeting
The first time the Dallas Cowboys played the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys lost. But it was by inches.
There were many chances for Dallas to win. The most obvious turning point came on a fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line, when Luke Schoonmaker caught what appeared to be a touchdown, but replay review showed he was barely short. On the Cowboys' last drive they got down to the 6-yard line, Dak Prescott took a bad sack, but still on the final play, Ceedee Lamb was just one yard from scoring to win the game.
Dallas outgained Philadelphia, 406-292. The Cowboys led 14-7 early in the second quarter and 17-14 at halftime. Like many other Philadelphia games, the Eagles just found a way to squeeze out a close game after they were outplayed for most of it.
The rematch comes Sunday night. The 10-2 Eagles can essentially wrap up the NFC East title with a win. If the 9-3 Cowboys win, the NFC East race is on and the 49ers are in great shape for the No. 1 seed. It's a great game to end Sunday's action.
The question for bettors is whether the Cowboys outplay the Eagles again, and this time finish the job and win. The Cowboys are 3-point favorites at BetMGM, and the fact that it's at a full field goal is telling. Oddsmakers view Dallas as the better team, albeit slightly. Plenty of advanced stats would agree. A scheduling inequity — the Cowboys are at home with extra rest having played last Thursday, while the Eagles travel after playing the late afternoon game Sunday — is another factor.
Mike McCarthy's situation is not ideal for the Cowboys. The coach left the team due to appendicitis, but initial reports said he wants to be back on the sideline Sunday. It still disrupts the offensive preparation during the week. His absence is not a minor detail.
Picking Sunday night's game might come down to whether you believe in analytics or intangibles like the ability to win close games and overall records. Many stats would tell you the Cowboys are the better team, except the most important stat: the Eagles' record.
As a believer in analytics, I'm going to go with the Cowboys. McCarthy missing most of the week and perhaps Sunday too worries me, but I think they should have won the first meeting and are the better team. I respect the Eagles' toughness in close games, but this spot is good for Dallas. It should be a very good Sunday night game.
Here are the rest of the NFL picks against the spread for Week 14:
Steelers (-6) over Patriots
The total of 30 for this game is the lowest in the NFL since 2005 according to John Ewing of BetMGM. What a treat for Thursday night! The NBA looks real smart putting its in-season tournament semifinal games on Thursday, because that's a far better product than what the NFL will offer. Regardless, people will tune in and likely bet. It's hard to back the Patriots, especially with running back Rhamondre Stevenson and receiver Demario Douglas ruled out. I don't trust Mitchell Trubisky or the Steelers offense, especially as a 6-point favorite, but I trust the Patriots even less.
Buccaneers (+1) over Falcons
I was expecting the line to be a little higher. It being less than a field goal indicates that oddsmakers know the Buccaneers might be the better team. The Falcons are better at home but the Bucs have battled hard on the road in just about every game this season. Tampa Bay is also essentially eliminated from the playoff picture with a loss.
Lions (-3.5) over Bears
This was a harder pick than it would have been a few weeks ago. The Bears are playing better, including almost winning at Detroit in Week 11. That started a weird slump for the Lions in which they've looked a pretty far step behind the top teams in the NFC. It seems like a situation in which the Bears should be the play as home underdogs, but I still believe in the Lions. At least for one more week.
Bengals (-1) over Colts
It's hard to fully buy into a story like Jake Browning. It took him until he was five seasons removed from college to even take a snap in the NFL. Then all of a sudden in his second start he was on "Monday Night Football" throwing for 354 yards in a win over the Jaguars. He's the kind of player we're all skeptical about until we look up and it's a Brock Purdy story. Who knows where Browning's story is going, but I don't think Monday night was a total fluke. The Colts aren't great and I think the Bengals keep this fun story going.
Browns (-3) over Jaguars
Poor Jaguars. Monday night was just a horrible night, between the loss as a 10-point favorite and the injuries to Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk, among others. Either the Jaguars are going to rush a presumably less-than-healthy Lawrence back against a tough Browns defense or they'll be careful with their franchise quarterback and sit him. Either way, the Browns are in a good spot.
Saints (-5.5) over Panthers
The Panthers aren't one of those scrappy bad teams. They're 3-8-1 against the spread this season according to Action Network's standings. They're just bad. It's hard to pick the Saints because we don't know for sure if Derek Carr will play, though it seems to be trending that way. I might like the Saints more with Jameis Winston right now. At least he'd push the ball downfield. Either way, I don't want the Panthers.
Jets (+3.5) over Texans
Zach Wilson returns for the Jets and while he's obviously flawed, he's better than any other option this week. This is still a good Jets defense and and a tough road test for the Texans. Everyone loves C.J. Stroud and rightfully so, but this might be a tough game for him.
Ravens (-7) over Rams
The Rams are feisty and I respect what Sean McVay is doing this season. But the Ravens are really good, especially against the NFC, and I can see another blowout coming.
Vikings (-3) over Raiders
Very interested to see how Justin Jefferson affects the offense. Clearly he'll help coming off a hamstring injury. Minnesota's offense looked broken against the Bears the last time we saw it, and I think there's a rebound coming.
Seahawks (+10.5) over 49ers
The Thanksgiving matchup was not pretty, as the 49ers absolutely dominated. Seattle just doesn't match up well against San Francisco. All that said, this is a lot of points for a Seahawks team that is still pretty good and needs to win.
Chiefs (-1.5) over Bills
I assume this will be everyone's favorite underdog pick of the week. I get why. The Bills are way better than their 6-6 record. They need to win games. But it's not like the Chiefs aren't also good and not playing for anything. If they keep winning, the No. 1 seed is still a reasonable goal. I'm fine going with the Chiefs at home.
Broncos (+3) over Chargers
It's not like anyone thinks the Broncos are great, but at least we've seen them beat some good teams. Why do the Chargers keep getting respect in the betting market? They're not a good team.
Titans (+13.5) over Dolphins
We get a random Monday night doubleheader this week and ... we couldn't flex in something better? The Dolphins are very good at blowing out bad teams and that makes me nervous, but it's rare I pick a favorite of 13 or more in the NFL. Can't say I'm looking forward to a night of watching Will Levis try to keep the Titans within two touchdowns though.
Giants (+6.5) over Packers
Just think, this is the "good" matchup for Monday night. Ugh. I have enjoyed the Packers' resurgence, but they're coming off a massive win over the Chiefs. And if anything is going to get the Giants motivated, it might be a Monday night game. The Giants have played better lately. As good as the Packers have been, I could see them being upset in a flat spot.
Last week: 9-3-1
Season to date: 96-92-5
