NFL betting: Justin Fields for MVP? Pass and take the under on this prop
I’m a Chicago Bears fan. I worry about quarterback Justin Fields. Look on #GamblingTwitter, and you’ll find loads of “Fields for MVP” tweets. Yes, Fields led all quarterbacks in rushing yards with 1,143 last season. Yes, Fields finished within 70 yards of breaking Lamar Jackson’s quarterback rushing record. I’m not doubting his ability as a runner. It’s the passing game that has me worried.
Prop: Justin Fields total regular-season passing yards – under 2899.5 (-110) at BetMGM
As a passer, Fields needs some work. He ranked last among 33 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per pass attempt at 4.63. That’s the eighth-lowest mark in the league in the last five years. Entering his third season, there’s little from his 2022 campaign that inspires confidence in him improving as a passer.
Although Fields had more passing attempts, passing yards and finished with a higher completion rate than his rookie season, he did start three more games. He also finished worse than his rookie year in other metrics that could contribute to his season-long passing yards going under the total.
What helps with boosting passing yards? Throwing downfield. Fields had only 48 attempts last season, 19th in the league, with just a 33% completion rate. The line was 30th in protection rate, and Fields was tied for the most sacks with Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson.
As a result of inadequate protection, Fields was 31st in catchable passes when under pressure, completing just 50%. Instead, we saw Fields run, and his scrambling resulted in being bottom five in the league for total pass attempts last year.
Chicago drafted an offensive tackle in the first round. However, the schedule doesn’t do the offensive line any favors. In the first 10 weeks, the Bears will play seven teams inside the top half in quarterback sack percentage in 2022. If Fields isn’t protected once again, injuries become a possibility. In his first two years, he had a chest rib fracture, a shoulder joint separation and a hip strain. If the hits continue, durability becomes a higher risk.
Even if Fields is better protected than in his sophomore season, he didn’t show much improvement in clean pocket completion percentage, ranking 27th last year compared to 29th in his rookie season.
He's a star as a runner, but has yet to prove he can produce as a passer. Fields ranked last in the league in Pro Football Focus’ passing grade. Even against a potentially easier schedule in 2023, I need Fields to prove he's better.
