NFBC Main Event Tracker: Week 4 review
Main Event Tracker: Week 4 review
Sometimes, things just don’t quite go your way and your team comes crashing back to Earth. For me, that happened in Week 4.
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Hitter Review
Yuck. That’s an awful lot of red up there. So much progress from the first couple of weeks just wiped away this week, with no epic performance on Sunday to save us this time around. As you can see on the chart above, our team swatted a grand total of two home runs this week. Two. One fewer than Travis d’Arnaud hit by himself on Friday night. When you’re looking for 12 home runs per week, falling 10 shy of that is just a devastating blow. It’s going to take weeks – if not longer – to attempt to climb out of that hole, if it’s even possible.
Along with falling 10 homers short of our weekly goal, we came up nine runs short and 10 RBI short as well. That’s not surprising, as home runs are the major drivers in those categories as well. That takes us from a small surplus in runs to a deficit of four runs. We’re now chasing 12.5 home runs for the year instead of 2.5, and our problem in RBI has gotten much bigger – we’re now 24.5 behind the number there.
We fell just short of the mark in at-bats, though that wasn’t entirely our fault this time around. Tyler O’Neill collided with teammate Rafael Devers on Monday and suffered a concussion that cost him the remainder of the week, missing three games while in the lineup for the first half. Jake Fraley missed a pair of games over the weekend due to illness. Jurickson Profar was ejected from Saturday’s game after his first at-bat for arguing balls and strikes.
The two home runs that we did hit came from Jorge Polanco and Jake Fraley. Thanks for the contributions gentlemen. Everyone else, shame on you. With no power at all to speak of, it’s easy to see why the runs and RBI totals fell so short of our goals. Jose Ramirez did his part, with six RBI and a swipe on the week, though he did so hitting just .217. The Contreras brothers each hit over .300 and combined for eight RBI, five runs scored and a stolen base. There has been nothing wrong with what we’re getting from the catcher position, it has been elite and so needed.
First base is a completely different story. Paul Goldschmidt had another miserable week, going 3-for-21 (.143) with one run scored and one RBI. The 36-year-old clubbed a home run in his second at-bat of the season and hasn’t had a single extra-base hit since. Just brutal. He also hasn’t stolen a base or even attempted one. For the season, he’s slashing .173/.279/.213. That’s not going to cut it.
Polanco homered at least, but he’s still hitting just .173 on the season and has been pretty terrible overall. Randy Arozarena had another dud, hitting .074 (2-for-27) with a swipe and one RBI. Like Goldschmidt and Polanco, there’s really nothing we can do there, other than continue to roll them out there and hope that the results improve.
Jarren Duran scored six runs and stole a pair of bases on the week, no complaints there. Luis Rengifo has finally been playing most days, and that should increase even more with Anthony Rendon (hamstring) landing on the injured list on Sunday. Rengifo already has six stolen bases on the young season and shouldn’t be leaving our lineup for a while.
Josh Rojas played over the weekend and picked up a stolen base for us. He homered on the bench during the first half of the week, unfortunately. He’s looking like he could be a solid depth addition.
Overall, it was just an extremely disappointing and demoralizing week on the hitting side. Let’s hope that the arms were able to do a bit better.
Pitching Review
For the first time all season, we basically hit all of our pitching targets across the board, besting the win total and delivering strong ratios while finishing right at the mark in strikeouts and saves. It truly was a team effort, as everyone needed to come together to make it work – including the contributions from guys that we pulled off the street.
The week looked like it was going to start out on a high note, as we had three pitchers take the hill on Monday – Kutter Crawford and the two doubles (Cole Irvin and Martin Perez). Crawford was brilliant on Patriots' Day in Boston, striking out six batters over 5 2/3 innings of shutout baseball. The problem is that the Red Sox couldn’t provide a single run of support for him and he exited without a win.
Irvin didn’t have the issue of run support, as the Orioles provided that in spades. He entered the fifth inning with a 4-2 lead and a reasonable pitch count, but after allowing a two-out single to Manuel Margot he was lifted at just 82 pitches, one out shy of qualifying for a win. Obviously, the O’s would go on to win the game. There are a lot of things about fantasy baseball that can be frustrating throughout the season, but man the luck and variance surrounding the wins category has to be near the top.
At the same time that Irvin had a comfortable lead and was pulled one out shy of a victory, Martin Perez carried a 3-0 lead into the sixth inning against the Mets. Three singles, a bases-loaded walk and a sacrifice fly later, and he was clinging to a one-run lead with two outs in the inning. That’s when skipper Carlos Mendoza went to the bullpen to get Hunter Stratton, who proceeded to allow a game-tying RBI double to DJ Stewart. No win for Perez either.
On Wednesday, Michael Wacha pitched decently, but couldn’t beat the hapless White Sox. To add to the frustration while being in a winless drought, Erick Fedde turned in his best start of the season – striking out five batters over 5 2/3 shutout innings in a victory over the Royals – on our bench.
On Thursday we finally got into the win column, with Ryan Pepiot squeaking out a one-run victory over the Angels – complete with Colin Poche white-knuckling a tricky save in the ninth inning. Then on Friday, we turned the ball to Justin Verlander.
Looking at the decisions that we left hanging in the air heading into Week 3, there was a debate on whether or not to roll out a 41-year-old in his first start back from the injured list against the Nationals, or instead use Erick Fedde or Wade Miley for their single starts. We wound up pulling the trigger on Verlander and it turned out to be a good call, as he gave up two runs over six strong innings, punched out four batters and earned a victory. We’re going to need a whole lot more of that throughout the season if we are going to be able to compete on the pitching side. Some have concerns about his durability and workload for this season, but his option for 2025 only vests if he pitches 140 innings this season, and he’s going to do everything in his power to try to reach that mark.
While it was awesome to see him earn that victory, it also didn’t come easily. Josh Hader is starting to look like a problem. In his first action of the week, Hader came on in a non-save situation against the Braves on Monday and allowed four runs on four hits and a walk while recording only one out. Oof. He struck out all three batters that he faced over a perfect frame a couple of days later against the Braves, once again in a non-save situation. On Friday he finally got a save chance, and despite a shaky inning in which he allowed a run on two hits and a walk, Hader was able to nail down his second save of the season. The Astros then went away from him in a save chance on Saturday – and Ryan Pressly proceeded to blow an opportunity there, which should at least help to add to Hader’s job security.
Alexis Diaz meanwhile has been helping the cause. He finished the week with back-to-back saves against the Angels on Saturday and Sunday, bringing him up to a total of four saves on the season.
The starting pitching was much better on Saturday, as both Crawford and Corbin Burnes pitched well and won their respective starts. That carried over to Sunday, where Cole Irvin fired 6 2/3 scoreless innings in a victory over the Royals. Martin Perez wasn’t as good in his start, but he did manage to rack up seven strikeouts in his four-plus frames.
What’s especially frustrating on the pitching front, even after a decent week, is the fact that we were the runner-up bid on Kirby Yates last week in an attempt to snag a third closer. Hindsight is obviously 20/20, but seeing Yates rack up three saves and a win this week was unbelievably painful.
FAAB Plan
I was really hoping that we wouldn’t need to do much this week, but the brutal week on offense – especially on the power front – has me re-thinking that approach a bit.
Once again, I always like to start out by looking at the roster and determining how many cuts I have available before attempting to plot out what I need for the upcoming week. Eduardo Rodriguez suffered a setback and has been shut down from throwing. The Diamondbacks announced that they’re going to slow-play his recovery and be sure not to push him, meaning he’s unlikely to make it back into the fold until early June. I just can’t justify carrying him as a zero for another six weeks – and that’s if all goes according to plan. He looks like a drop.
Martin Perez did what we were hoping for over the past two weeks with his single against the Tigers and his double this past week. He draws a single at the Giants next week and then a single at the Athletics the following week. They aren’t terrible matchups, it’s just hard to roll out Perez for a one-start week, especially when I should have better options.
One of those better options for next week is Cole Irvin for a single against the Athletics. The way that my pitching currently lines up for next week, I would either be using that start, or Wade Miley for two (at the Pirates and vs. the Yankees). I’ve been going back and forth on that one. Whichever one I don’t decide to utilize, will likely be a drop.
So that’s three. I also think that it’s time for Joey Gallo to hit the curb. He’s mired in a slump at the moment, and despite the fact that he has slugged three homers and stolen a base on the season, his .143 batting average is terrible even by his standards.
So that gives me four spots to potentially upgrade for next week. On the offensive front, I think the most intriguing name available is Mariners’ outfielder Jonatan Clase. The dynamic 21-year-old outfielder has jumped into a full-time role with Dominic Canzone on the injured list, and he possesses game-changing speed and decent pop as well. He has already driven in four runs and swiped a pair of bases in his first five big league contests. I’ll have a bid in on him, but I don’t think I’ll be in the range required to land him.
After that, I have interest in bringing Brent Rooker back to the team. He returned from the injured list and socked a pair of dingers over the weekend. He gets a nice schedule for next week and could help to add some power to the squad. The same can be said for Max Kepler, who is tentatively scheduled to return from the injured list on Monday. It was surprising to see him dropped last week and I’m hoping to take advantage there.
Beyond those outfielders, I also have Blake Perkins, Wilyer Abreu, Andy Pages, Adam Duvall, Tyler Freeman, Nick Senzel, Gabriel Arias and Jose Miranda on my bid lists on offense. Just hoping to add some power and continue to give myself better options and flexibility for mid-week changes on the hitting side. Duvall in particular looks like a very strong option for the first half of next week, as he’ll get at least two left-handers against the Marlins.
On the pitching side, there isn’t much that I’m interested in for next week in particular. Ryan Feltner has a decent double coming up in two weeks (at Marlins, at Pirates), so I’ll see if I can pick that up for $2. Trevor Megill is an interesting speculative add for saves now that he’s back in the mix in a crowded Brewers’ bullpen. I’ll probably take a small shot there as we’re still well behind the pace in that category. Devin Williams is also available (despite being rostered in 70% of Main Event leagues) and could be worth a look. I just hate stashing injured players and holding zeros for so long, as Williams isn’t expected back until the All-Star break.
FAAB Review
Alright, let’s see what we’ve won. While we had a fair amount of interest in Jonatan Clase, he ended up out of our price range as anticipated – going for $45 with a runner-up bid of $43. Andy Pages also landed well outside of our range, earning the highest bid of the week in our league at $91 ($66).
We had small bids in on Blake Perkins $45 ($25), Wilyer Abreu $44 ($37) and Brent Rooker $23 ($22), but weren’t aggressive enough to land any of them. Our top target among the outfielders available (after Clase) had actually been Max Kepler, who is expected to return from the injured list on Monday. Yes, he was off to a brutal 1-for-20 (.050) start to begin the season, but he was extremely productive in 2023 – slashing .260/.332/.484 with 24 homers and 66 RBI in 130 games. Of the available options, I actually thought that he had the most long-term potential. I also thought that we could probably sneak him by for a lower bid since he’s still on the injured list, but I still went way too high at $23, as there was no runner-up bid. Just lighting FAAB money on fire. Joey Gallo was the drop on that one.
We also landed a pair of speculative closer plays – one short-term, the other long. Trevor Megill rejoined the Brewers’ bullpen last week and is in the mix with Joel Payamps and Abner Uribe for save chances. I’m hopeful that he emerges from that group and locks down the ninth inning, at least until Devin Williams returns. We won that bid by $1, $14 to $13. Cole Irvin was the drop on that one.
Speaking of Devin Williams, we swapped out injured starting pitcher stash Eduardo Rodriguez and replaced him with Williams, at least for the time being. Given our need in saves, and the elite ceiling that Williams has, it at least seems like a better stash option at the moment. He may end up being a roster casualty as well if we need the spot, but for now we’ll try to be patient – at least until we get updated news on a timeline for Williams’ return. We won that bid $4 to $2.
The final addition was Adam Duvall for $4 unopposed. As I mentioned above, Duvall gets at least a pair of left-handers (possibly three) in their upcoming series against the Marlins, and he’s going to hit a home run there against his former squad. Book it. Martin Perez was the final drop.
Among the interesting drops around the rest of the league, here’s what stands out to me at first glance: Max Meyer, Jose Siri, Justin Lawrence, Victor Scott II, Jacob Young, Kris Bryant and John Means.
Looking Ahead
Alright, trying to plan ahead for next week, let’s see where we stand.
First, with the bats. Both Contreras brothers, Goldschmidt, Polanco, Tovar and Ramirez are in there as always. The same is true for O’Neill (expected back on Tuesday), Arozarena, Duran and now Rengifo. We definitely need more production from Goldschmidt, Polanco and Arozarena, but there simply aren’t better options to play over them at this point.
So once again, that leaves us with two outfield spots, corner infielder, middle infielder and utility to play with. Here’s the options.
For the two outfield spots, we have:
Jake Fraley - missed last two games due to illness. Gets 4 against the Phillies, but the first two against left-handers. Most likely, he'll play two games.
Mark Canha - three games against the Rays in Tampa Bay
Jarred Kelenic/Adam Duvall – three games against the Marlins, at least two vs. left-handers
Edward Olivares - four against the Brewers, two RHP, two LHP
Jurickson Profar - four against the Rockies at Coors Field
Max Kepler - four against the hapless White Sox, three against RHP
Yikes. Looking at it in that format, we probably have too many outfielders for our own good at the moment and need to thin out that group going forward. It’s always nice to have options though. Between the two OF spots and utility, we can start three of these seven options, so let’s try to narrow it down.
Kelenic is out, as he’s going to play one game at most with the left-handers on the schedule. We picked up Duvall with the intention of playing him against at least two left-handers, so we’d like to try to work him in. I could see putting him ahead of Fraley (likely to play two) and Canha (could play two or three, but kind of meh overall).
Profar is in for sure, he gets four games at Coors Field and should play all four. Olivares gets four games, but the Pirates aren’t treating him as an everyday player. He’ll probably play at least two, and if he’s in Monday’s lineup we could hope for three. Kepler is a complete wild card, but if he’s activated and in Monday’s lineup, you can’t get much better than that in terms of matchups.
Here’s how I think I’m ranking those options right now: Profar, Kepler, Duvall, Olivares, Fraley, Canha, Kelenic. We’ll see how it plays out.
At corner infield, we’re stuck between a rock and a hard place. It’s either Josh Rojas, who gets three against the Rangers – likely all RHP, or we shift over Rengifo and play Javier Baez at middle infield. Baez actually showed signs of life this week, with three stolen bases and a couple of RBI. He gets three games against the Rays. It’s probably a coin flip with a slight lean toward Rojas.
It would be really nice if one of the outfielders could gain eligibility at first base, but Profar and Canha are still a long way away from accomplishing that. We’re probably going to need to recycle an outfielder next week.
On the pitching front, we really don’t have many decisions this week, because we limited our options. Burnes, Verlander, Crawford, Pepiot and the two closers are every week starts. That’s six. None of them are lined up for two starts this week. Michael Wacha and Erick Fedde are though, and why have them on the team if you aren’t going to roll their doubles? That makes eight.
For the final spot, we picked up Wade Miley last week with the intention of using his double this week – at the Pirates and against the Yankees. It’s not the greatest double on paper, but would be nice to get that extra start in there. The only other option would be to roll with Trevor Megill. The Brewers get seven games on the week, four at the Pirates and three against the Yankees. My current lean is Miley, but I could easily see myself going the other direction on that one in an attempt to add a save to the total.
Where we Stand
After finishing at or near that top of the league standings through each of the first three weeks, we finally took a tumble down the board with the poor performance from the offense this week. We’ll enter play on Monday with just 92 league points. That puts us in fourth place in our 15-team league, 20 back of first, 9.5 back of second and 6.5 behind third. Gross.
As of now, the overall standings are simply a pipe dream, as we sit in 261st place out of 855 teams in the competition.
Here’s to hoping that this week was just a blip on the radar and the offense gets back on track with a big week 5. Three or four homers on Monday would be a nice step in that direction.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my poor decision making – anything. Those that have reached out so far, it has been very appreciated. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.
