NASCAR Best Bets: The Advent Health 400 at Kansas Speedway
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Midwest for the first of two trips to Kansas Speedway in 2024 this Sunday (3:00 p.m. ET on FS1). Denny Hamlin called his shot scoring his third win of the season at Dover, and he enters the weekend looking to repeat as the winner at Kansas Speedway.
Kansas is configured similar to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, though tire wear will be more of a factor here. Toyota has won every Kansas race in the Next Gen era, and 23XI Racing has been directly responsible for three of those trips to Victory Lane.
This race more than likely runs through the two favorites, being Kyle Larson (+400) and Denny Hamlin (+450). Since 2022, both drivers lead the field in average finish, driver rating and average running position. Larson also won the first 1.5-mile race of the 2024 season at Las Vegas, leading 181 laps in the process.
Here's what I like pre-practice and qualifying for the Advent Health 400 (Odds as of Wednesday, May 1).
Chase Elliott (+1100)
NASCAR's Most Popular Driver enters the weekend with four Top 5 finishes in his last five races, and he is the most recent winner on a 1.5-mile track (Texas Motor Speedway). He led 47 laps enroute to a sixth-place finish at Kansas last fall and was seventh in the Spring race. Elliott is no stranger to Victory Lane at Kansas having won here in 2018. Since that win, he has just one finish outside of the Top 12 at this track.
I love the form that the No. 9 is in, and I'm betting on his consistency to continue being in the mix up front where it counts. +1100 is the best price I've been able to find. It is available at BetMGM.
Bubba Wallace (+1500)
DraftKings has Bubba priced at +1500, and I believe it's too long for a driver who won here in 2022 and finished fourth last spring. Bubba was running second in last fall's race before a blown tire in Stage 2 erased what looked to be another strong day.
After two straight races with incidents, this is a great spot for Bubba to right the ship and point his season back in the right direction.
Alex Bowman Top 10 (-110)
Bowman has finished inside of the Top Ten at Kansas three consecutive trips, and he looked to have a race-winning car in the fall of 2022 after leading 107 laps. He continues to quietly put together solid results, and Top 11 in nine of the last 10 Kansas races is another indicator of his ability to run well.
I don't believe he will have race-winning speed, but I'm comfortable taking this at even money knowing the level of consistency the No. 48 has brought to Kansas in recent years.
Noah Gragson Top 10 (+275)
Ford's lack of speed compared to the rest of NASCAR has been shocking, but Gragson has been one of the few pleasant surprises of the season to date. He has finished inside of the Top 20 in every race minus Atlanta, COTA and Bristol, and his sixth-place effort at Las Vegas may have foreshadowed an impressive performance at Kansas.
He does have three Cup Series starts at Kansas: a pair of 18th-place finishes in 2022 with Kaulig Racing and a 29th last spring with Legacy Motor Club. I wouldn't look too deep into those results, but the experience is valuable. He's showing confidence and composure in his start with Stewart-Haas Racing, and I believe there is upside with Gragson to finish inside the Top 10 after being the top finishing Ford at Dover last weekend.
Denny Hamlin/Tyler Reddick to finish Top Five (+210)
I'm taking Hamlin and Reddick this weekend to each finish inside of the Top 5 (available at Caesar's Sportsbook). Hamlin has finished no worse than fifth at Kansas since the fall of 2021. Reddick's win last fall is his only Top 5 on his Cup resume, but he's been better than the results have shown. Plus, he finished runner-up at Las Vegas and fourth at Texas so far this season, and Toyota's dominance here cannot be denied.
Enjoy the racing in Kansas.
