Maple Leafs aren't Stanley Cup favourites, whatever the odds say
The Toronto Maple Leafs are a perfect case study in the difference between odds and probabilities.
Over the next few weeks, you're going to see a few headlines telling you the Toronto Maple Leafs are the Stanley Cup favourites for 2023-24.
Don't believe them.
To be clear, there is nothing wrong with reporting on the fact that the Maple Leafs have some of the shortest odds in the NHL at most sportsbooks, and favourite status at a few. That's not inaccurate, or even inherently disingenuous.
Where it's easy for wires to cross is the way we are conditioned to take the term 'favourite' and associate it with 'best team' or 'team most likely to win' — and that's not always the case. Sportsbooks set lines with probabilities in mind, sure, but that's not all that's going on.
If they made the Arizona Coyotes the favourite to win the Stanley Cup, no one would bet on them so it would be a waste of time. If they offered the Colorado Avalanche as a +300,000 underdog to win it all, they'd put themselves in the position to lose buckets of money on an outcome that could easily come to pass.
That said, the goal of a sportsbook is to induce as much betting as it can without over-leveraging itself on a particular outcome. It is not designed to tell the future.
So, when the Maple Leafs appear as a Stanley Cup favourite, it's because sportsbooks know they don't have to offer value in line with the team's chances of winning to receive plenty of bets.
Toronto has a massive fanbase, some of whom will want to bet on the team to win it all no matter what. This trend is heightened by the fact the team hasn't won a Cup since 1967. Holding a ticket on the team's drought-breaking season could be an appealing prospect for some.
It's also no secret that the Maple Leafs receive a disproportionate amount of media coverage.
The combination of the large audience for content around the team — and the fact that Canadian sports media outlets tend to be headquartered in Toronto — often makes the club top of mind for NHL fans, whether they like it or not. That level of visibility probably also attracts some betting action.
Now, for the Maple Leafs to get favourite status, they still have to be plausible champions in 2023-24, and they certainly meet that threshold. Toronto tied the Vegas Golden Knights for the fourth-highest point total in the 2022-23 regular season with 111. The year before, the team ranked fourth with 115.
Toronto also finally got over the hump in the playoffs, defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round. You could make an argument that they improved the roster by adding Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and John Klingberg on prove-it one-year contracts.
Despite that, there are a few teams that simply have to be considered more likely to win a championship than Toronto in 2023-24.
The Golden Knights matched Toronto's regular season and just won it all. They were surprisingly able to bring back Ivan Barbashev and Adin Hill, leaving Rielly Smith as the team's only major departure.
The Carolina Hurricanes won more games than the Maple Leafs during the 2022-23 season, and advanced further in the playoffs. Their free-agent shopping spree included adding the top defenceman on the market — Dmitry Orlov — and former Maple Leaf Michael Bunting. They look like they are nearing a deal for Vladimir Taransenko and may still be in the market to trade for Erik Karlsson.
The New Jersey Devils had a better point total than Toronto, and went just as far in the playoffs. Much of the team's young core is improving and they locked in Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier on big extensions, while acquiring Tyler Toffoli via trade. It would be hard to argue Toronto is better than New Jersey.
Colorado also deserve a mention on a list of teams that clearly have a better shot than Toronto. The team made some excellent moves prior to free agency, added some depth in the open market, and should have plenty of cap room for additional upgrades if they put Gabriel Landeskog's $7 million cap hit on LTIR.
Those cases don't seem particularly debatable, and depending on how you evaluate clubs like the Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars, or Boston Bruins, projecting them to have a better chance to win than Toronto is reasonable. Impassioned arguments could conceivably be made for a few other squads, too.
The Maple Leafs are a really good hockey team with a real chance to win the Stanley Cup in 2023-24 — just like they've had a legitimate shot the last few years. Even so, being the best squad in a 32-team league is a tall order, and Toronto does not meet that criteria at the moment.
The favourite label is a mechanism designed to divert bets in the direction that sportsbooks want it to go, at values that they are comfortable with. It does not indicate who will win. Whatever the odds have to say about the Toronto Maple Leafs, they don't look like the best the NHL has to offer.
