Kentucky basketball NCAA Tournament projections: Here's where latest bracketology has Cats
LEXINGTON — What a difference a week makes.
Last week, the Kentucky was 15-4 overall, 5-2 in the SEC and projected as a potential top-three seed in this season's NCAA Tournament.
Now, after back-to-back home losses to Florida and Tennessee, respectively, UK's tournament seed is tumbling.
On Jan. 25, Bracket Matrix slotted the Wildcats' average seed as 3.80, appearing in all 82 of its brackets. In the site's newest projections, released Monday, Kentucky is down nearly two full seed lines, now owning an average seed of 5.40 (out of 88 total brackets).
Despite the consecutive defeats, the Wildcats' NET ranking is 27 (through Monday's games), only a four-spot slide since last week. But of greater import, they are 2-4 in Quad 1 games, the contests which carry the most weight in the minds of selection committee members when they begin filling out the bracket in March.
After Monday's games, BracketWAG.com has Kentucky as a No. 4 seed in the South Region, where it would face No. 13 seed UC Irvine in the first round. Bracketville, which updated its bracket Monday morning, has UK as the No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region, taking on No. 11 seed Grand Canyon in a first-round matchup in Omaha, Nebraska. Bracketologists.com, which bases its bracket solely on NET rankings, listed the Wildcats as a 7-seed, where they would take on 10-seed TCU in the first round.
Here's a look at Kentucky's NCAA Tournament résumé as of Tuesday morning, as well as projections from a variety of national outlets:
Kentucky basketball’s résumé, NET ranking
NET ranking: 27
KenPom ranking: 27
Quad 1 record: 2-4
Quad 2 record: 3-1
Quad 3 record: 4-1
Quad 4 record: 6-0
Where ESPN projects Kentucky basketball in NCAA Tournament
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi released his latest update Monday morning. He projected UK will be the No. 5 seed in the East Region, making the long trip to Spokane, Washington, to battle No. 12 seed Samford in the first round.
CBS Sports Kentucky basketball bracketology for NCAA Tournament
CBS Sports writer Jerry Palm released his new bracket Monday afternoon. He placed Kentucky as the 6-seed in the East Region, heading to Pittsburgh to clash with 11-seed Colorado in the first round.
UK basketball bracketology from USA TODAY Sports
USA TODAY's Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith and Eddie Timanus combined for a bracket for the network, which was released Tuesday morning. The bracket features Kentucky as the No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region, where it would square off in the first round with an 11-seed: the winner of a First Four matchup between Clemson and St. John's.
Where The Washington Post projects Kentucky in NCAA Tournament
In a bracketology story for The Washington Post published Tuesday morning, Patrick Stevens predicted UK will be the 6-seed in the East Region. In Stevens' projection, UK would head to Pittsburgh and take on 11-seed Cincinnati.
What's next for Kentucky basketball
UK has two games this week, one on the road and one at Rupp Arena.
The first is Tuesday night at Vanderbilt. It's a game the Wildcats can't afford to lose: The Commodores' NET rating is 225, the worst in the SEC by nearly 100 spots. (Missouri's NET ranking is 136). A loss to Vandy would be a Quad 3 result, potentially turning into a Quad 4 setback if the Commodores continue struggling.
After Tuesday's game, UK returns home for a non-conference tilt Saturday, when Gonzaga comes to town. This season, Bulldogs aren't playing up to the standard they've established the past three decades. They've reached the NCAA Tournament 24 times in a row, but are not included in the event in most of the latest projections. But they are one spot ahead of the Wildcats in the NET rankings (No. 26). If Gonzaga remains among the top 30, a Kentucky win Saturday would be a Quad 1 result for the hosts — a small step toward rebuilding their tournament resume after last week's 0-2 showing.
Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky basketball bracketology 2024: NCAA Tournament projections
