Forde-Yard Dash: Can anyone beat Alabama?

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (excavating tools needed to find rock bottom sold separately in Lincoln):

[More: 5 upswing teams | 10 worthwhile unbeatens | Showdown Saturday]

FIRST QUARTER

WHO CAN BEAT ‘BAMA?

Alabama (1) is a terror set loose upon the land, looting and pillaging everything in its path. In a departure from the normal Nick Saban methodology of flairlessly choking the life out of opponents, this Crimson Tide team packs plenty of offensive pyrotechnics into the weekly beatdowns. The Tide has an average margin of victory of 41 points, leads the nation in pass efficiency and is on pace to smash the 73-year-old school record for season scoring average.

Try this stat on for size: Alabama is averaging 49.5 points through three quarters. That would rank 10th nationally for full-game scoring.

This may be the best Saban team we’ve ever seen. Which is saying something, when you look at the man’s jewelry collection.

Mississippi was supposed to provide the first challenge, a Southeastern Conference opponent on the road. Score: 62-7. Then it was Texas A&M, a ranked team with considerable firepower of its own. Score: 45-23.

And so The Dash asks, as the Tide enters a four-week stretch of what could be utter maulings of overmatched opponents: Can anyone beat ‘Bama? There are significant doubts. At most, there are four teams with a chance. The list:

Ohio State (2). Potential line if they met on a neutral field: Alabama by 7. When they could meet: College Football Playoff. Why the Buckeyes have a chance: They have comparable talent, playmakers and coaching. At 4.68 yards allowed per play, this is (so far) the most pliant Alabama defense since giving up 4.8 in 2014 – when Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes put 537 yards and 42 points on the board in a CFP semifinal win. Why they don’t have a chance: TCU had 511 yards and 6.7 per play against Ohio State; Alabama could dwarf those numbers. And if Nick Bosa is out for the season, Ohio State is down its best defensive player and probably best player overall.

Clemson (3). Potential line if they met on a neutral field: Alabama by 11. Where they could meet: College Football Playoff. Why the Tigers have a chance: Like the Buckeyes, Clemson wouldn’t be outmanned in terms of overall talent, playmaking ability and coaching acumen. If there is one defensive line capable of making life difficult for the ‘Bama offense, this is it. And if Trevor Lawrence continues to develop, he would give the Tigers an elite quarterback capable of contesting Tua Tagovailoa in a shootout. Why they don’t have a chance: The pass defense has been subpar thus far and could be shredded by the nation’s most efficient pass offense. Clemson is one of two teams that has played four games and failed to record a single interception.

Georgia (4). Potential line if they met on a neutral field: Alabama by 12. Where they could meet: SEC championship game. Why the Bulldogs have a chance: They should have finished the job last January, they know they can play with the Tide, and they would approach a rematch with the zeal of a crusade. Nobody knows Saban like Kirby Smart. Why they don’t have a chance: Run defense. Austin Peay couldn’t challenge the Dogs’ defensive front seven and South Carolina wouldn’t try, but Middle Tennessee and Missouri have exposed some weakness up the middle. Georgia has surrendered 330 rushing yards the past two games.

LSU (5). Potential line when they meet in Baton Rouge on Nov. 3: Alabama by 17. Why the Tigers have a chance: Major upsets often require home-field advantage (check), winning the turnover battle (LSU is tied for the national lead with just one turnover thus far), and stopping the run (LSU leads the SEC in fewest yards allowed per carry). Why they don’t have a chance: The gap between the two programs has been clear the past five years, and this doesn’t seem like the year it closes without extraordinary circumstances. Does anyone really foresee Joe Burrow and those receivers matching throws with Alabama?

WHO CANNOT BEAT ‘BAMA

Five teams that may be harboring dreams of taking down the Tide, but have no realistic shot:

Oklahoma (6). If you need overtime to beat Army, you need a miracle to beat Alabama.

Penn State (7). The nation’s No. 82 team in rushing defense isn’t strong enough at the point of attack to stop Damien Harris, Najee Harris and Co.

Notre Dame (8). Maybe the switch to Ian Book at quarterback will continue to enliven a slumbering offense. But what works against Wake Forest isn’t guaranteed to work against Saban.

Auburn (9). The game is in Tuscaloosa. The revenge factor for last year will be real (even if the Tide denies it). And the Tigers simply aren’t as good thus far offensively as they were in 2017.

Central Florida (10). Yes, your 16-game winning streak is admirable, especially stretching across two coaching staffs. And, yes, McKenzie Milton is a fantastic quarterback. But no matter what you said then and and what you say now – especially now – you do NOT want ‘Bama.

FOUR FOR THE PLAYOFF

If today were Selection Sunday, this is how The Dash sees the College Football Playoff bracket:

No. 1 seed Alabama vs. No. 4 seed Ohio State in the Orange Bowl. The Dash dropped the Buckeyes one spot from last week, after their victory over TCU was devalued a bit by the Horned Frogs’ loss to Texas. As it stands now, the average Sagarin Rating for Ohio State’s four opponents is 93.

No. 2 seed LSU vs. No. 3 seed Georgia in the Cotton Bowl. The Bulldogs switch places with Ohio State after their 43-29 win at Missouri on Saturday. Georgia now has taken on two SEC teams on the road in the home team’s most anticipated game in years, and won both with ease. Georgia is yet to trail for a single second this season.

Dropped out: None.

Also considered: Clemson, Penn State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Stanford.

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