ESPN predicts likelihood that Bo Nix gets drafted with No. 1 overall pick in 2024

Zachary Neel

Wed, Jul 26, 2023, 8:27 AM·6 min read

Every year, we go into the college football season with an idea of who is going to be the No. 1 draft pick in the NFL draft.

A year ago, many believed it would be Alabama quarterback Bryce Young or Ohio State QB CJ Stroud. Two years before that, Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence was the easy prediction going into the year.

However, in 2021, Georgia defensive lineman Travon Walker surprised some during the season with his stellar play and ultimately became the No. 1 pick. The same thing happened in 2019 when LSU QB Joe Burow ran the table and went No. 1 after winning the Heisman.

So in 2023, who are the top candidates to be taken first overall, and what is the likelihood it happens?

Obviously, USC QB Caleb Williams — the reigning Heisman winner — is the heavy favorite to be the first draft pick, but there are a handful of other players who could move into that top spot with the right season. This week, ESPN looked at all of the top candidates in the nation and gave them a percent chance to be the No. 1 pick.

Unsurprisingly, Oregon Ducks QB Bo Nix was among the top candidates. Here’s where he ranked among the players according to ESPN:

QB Caleb Williams — USC Trojans

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Percent Chance to Go No. 1: 25%

2022 stats: 333 of 500, 4,537 yards, 42 TDs, 5 INTs, 382 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs

Analysis: After winning the Heisman in 2022 and entering the 2023 season as the betting favorite to win it again, it would be a shock to see Caleb Williams not taken with the first pick. He is one of the most hyped QB prospects we’ve had come out of college since Trevor Lawrence.

QB Drake Maye — North Carolina Tar Heels

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Percent Chance to Go No. 1: 20%

2022 stats: 342 of 517, 4,321 yards, 38 TDs, 7 INTs, 698 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs

Analysis: If there is anyone who is going to unseat Caleb Williams as the No. 1 overall pick, it’s likely to be Drake Maye. Many think he is almost as good of a prospect as Williams, and if he has a Joe Burrow-esque season — statistically speaking — it wouldn’t be crazy to see him as the first pick.

OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu — Penn State Nittany Lions

Percent Chance to Go No. 1: 13%

Analysis: Had Fashanu been in the 2023 NFL draft, there’s a good chance he would have been one of the first offensive tackles taken off the board. It’s not unheard of to see an OT go with the first pick, so if Fashanu has another great season, this certainly could happen.

Edge Jared Verse — Florida State Nittany Lions

Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Percent Chance to Go No. 1: 12%

2022 Stats: 48 tackles, 17 TFL, 9.0 sacks,

Analysis: Verse became a major part of the Florida State defense in 2022, and if the Seminoles are as good as some people are projecting next season, he could step up and be dominant on a major stage.

QB Quinn Ewers — Texas Longhorns

Percent Chance to Go No. 1: 10%

2022 stats: 172 of 296, 2,177 yards, 15 TDs, 6 INTs

Analysis: We’ve seen flashes of what Quinn Ewers can do so far in his career, but he hasn’t sustained it yet. He dealt with injuries in 2022. If he can stay healthy and lead Texas to a successful season in 2023, there’s a chance he is a top pick in the draft.

OT Joe Alt — Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Percent Chance to Go No. 1: 10%

Analysis: At 6-foot-8, 315 pounds, Alt is a prototypical left tackle who has had great success at Notre Dame. If he can keep Sam Hartman off the turf and the Fighting Irish have a great year, he could definitely get into the conversation.

QB Bo Nix — Oregon Ducks

Percent Chance to Go No. 1: 2%

2022 stats: 294 of 409, 3,593 yards, 29 TDs, 7 INTs, 510 rushing yards, 14 rushing TDs

Analysis: Nix would need quite a special season to surpass all of the other QBs in the class and become the No. 1 pick, but based on the flashes of greatness we saw in 2022, it’s not impossible.

QB J.J. McCarthy — Michigan Wolverines

Percent Chance to Go No. 1: 2%

2022 stats: 208 of 322, 2,719 yards, 22 TDs, 5 INTs, 306 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs

Analysis: Michigan has been close to winning a national championship the past two years. If McCarthy can go on a Joe Burrow-like run in 2023 and get a ring, there’s a chance he goes No. 1 as well.