Arizona Diamondbacks hoping prospect Tommy Troy continues pattern of draft successes
Playing under a scorching Arizona sun last month, Tommy Troy stepped in the batter’s box for the first time as a professional and lined the first pitch he saw into left for a clean single. The Diamondbacks are hoping it was the first of many hits. Based on their track record, there’s a decent chance it will be.
Since Mike Hazen took over as general manager prior to 2017, the Diamondbacks have done well selecting hitters near the top of the draft. Their scouts found a potential superstar in Corbin Carroll in addition to a collection of average to above-average big leaguers in Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy.
They identified another potential star in Matt McLain, whom they could not sign and is now thriving for the Cincinnati Reds, and landed top prospects in Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones. Two other hitters they drafted, outfielder Dominic Canzone and infielder Ryan Bliss, were used as currency to acquire closer Paul Sewald at the trade deadline.
In seven drafts under the current regime, the club has taken a hitter with its top pick six times. Counting supplemental picks, this Diamondbacks regime has had 24 selections within the top two rounds and has taken position players with 18 of them.
For Hazen, the focus on hitters traces back to his experience in Boston, where he worked with assistant general manager Amiel Sawdaye, who oversees the Diamondbacks drafts.
“We spend a lot of time trying to find athletes that can hit,” Hazen said. “We spend a lot of our conversations around it. It’s been a big ever since Boston. We always knew we had to spend a lot of time in the draft finding hitters. They go faster than the pitchers. You find fewer of them as you move deeper in the draft than you do the pitchers.”
Recent performance supports that thinking. Of the 25 domestic hitters who have accumulated the most wins above replacement in the majors over the past three years, only six came from outside the top two rounds. As for the Top 25 draft-eligible pitchers per WAR, 11 were taken in the third round or beyond, including six who were found in the sixth round or later.
Diamondbacks scouting director Ian Rebhan and his predecessor, Deric Ladnier, say they probably are not looking at hitters in all that different a way than the rest of the industry, preferring many of the characteristics they assume other clubs value, as well. They like hitters who do not chase and do not swing and miss too much, particularly on pitches in the zone. They like hitters capable not just of high top-end exit velocities but those who hit the ball hard with regularity.
They prefer hitters with track records of hitting against good pitching, whether that be on the showcase circuit as a high schooler and/or in college, preferably in a tough conference. They also tend to like athletes that play up-the-middle positions, a trait they say they have begun to value even more in recent drafts.
“We really just trust that model and don’t really sway from it,” said Rebhan, who ran his second draft for the Diamondbacks this year after spending five years as Ladnier’s top assistant. “I think knowing what we value in hitters and sticking to that, from both a scouting and analytical perspective, and being stubborn to that have been the biggest things.”
Troy, whom the Diamondbacks selected out of Stanford with the 12th overall pick last month, checks a lot of those boxes. The Diamondbacks had a history of good reports on his bat dating to high school. He had a track record of hitting at Stanford, making consistent, hard contact, and keeping his strikeout rates under control. He also kept getting better, something that Rebhan said intrigued the club.
“I feel like I’ve always had pretty good bat-to-ball skills,” Troy said. “I’ve had some twitch, which helped me get away with things for a while, but I feel like I haven’t become a complete hitter until probably a couple of years ago. I’ve been slowly learning, continuing to mature. And I’ve seen some huge differences.”
Troy said he honed in on the areas of the strike zone where he did the most damage. He thought he could hit all types of pitches but he knew he was most valuable when swinging only at specific ones.
“I was really damaging the ball up, middle-out, I could see some red-hot areas,” Troy said. “That’s where my sights should be and if it’s not there early in the count I’ve just got to take. Being a little bit more selective, shrinking the zone a little bit, especially early in the count, and trusting my hands to expand when I need to.”
Rebhan said speaking with Troy about this subject before the draft and discovering how he applied information in order to make adjustments made the scouting staff more confident in his selection.
Said Rebhan: “I think seeing the improvements year-over-year are intriguing because I think it speaks to his work ethic and aptitude. Tommy fits into this mold of the guys who, from a makeup perspective, you have a little more conviction in their ability to handle failure and their aptitude to make adjustments.
“They’re all going to fail at some point. How are they going to handle that and make adjustments? Do they have the work ethic and aptitude, self-awareness and growth mindset, to be able to do that?”
Questions remain as to whether Troy can remain at shortstop, the position he is playing now in the low minors, but his athleticism is no concern. He is strong with an athletic build and runs well, and there is a sense he could handle a variety of positions should he have to move off shortstop.
Entering Sunday, Troy had played only 18 games as a professional — a four-game tune-up in the Arizona Complex League, plus another 14 games in High-A — but so far has performed well. He owned a .284./.367/.537 line in 79 plate appearances, with four homers, three doubles and a triple.
Hazen said that as time has passed the organization has become more willing to sacrifice certain offensive characteristics in order to secure the more premium athlete.
“That has translated to more dynamic players for us that bring different elements of the game alive, from baserunning to defense in the outfield,” Hazen said. “I think the last couple of years we’re trying to replicate that on the infield, too.”
Better athletes have more to fall back on if their bat doesn’t fully develop; Thomas, for example, has not hit as consistently as hoped but his defense in center field has kept him in the lineup. The same has not been true of 2017 first-rounder Pavin Smith, who has bounced between Triple-A and the majors the past two years. Ladnier believes athleticism can have other benefits, as well.
“I just think those guys have this unique quality of being able to make adjustments easier," he said, "because they’re so gifted.”
Hazen said he does not believe the Diamondbacks are doing anything all that unique compared to the other 29 teams in terms of evaluating hitters.
“I really don’t, and I’m not trying to be evasive from a proprietary information standpoint,” Hazen said. “Like, our board was blown to bits as we went through the first and second rounds. Blown to bits. That tells me, regardless of order, there’s not something that we’re doing that the other teams aren’t also doing.”
Rebhan thinks another factor could be the makeup of his staff. It is a diverse group that includes former big leaguers, ex-college coaches and others with less traditional baseball backgrounds. He thinks it means more when scouts of all persuasions come together on a hitter.
“There are hitters every year in the draft where you go around the room and you can hear in each scout’s voice how convicted they are that this player is really going to hit,” Rebhan said. “I think those are the ones you gravitate to.”
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: In prospect Tommy Troy, DBacks hope pattern of draft success continues
