Probabilities of 16-0 Packers and 0-16 Colts, Dolphins

AccuScore provides football predictions and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division and making the playoffs. Using projected lineups, football predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. Visit AccuScore for weekly updates for all football and sports predictions.

After eight weeks, there are three teams in position to make history. The Green Bay Packers are on track to go undefeated after seven convincing victories before their Week 8 bye. The other two teams, the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins, are on pace to finish the season without a single win.

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Green Bay has won by seven or more points in every game except one. Despite appearing to be unbeatable, the Packers’ chances of going undefeated remain slim. AccuScore ran simulations for their remaining games and found that the Packers have a 5.3-percent chance of going 16-0, mainly due to Green Bays strength of schedule picking up considerably in the second half of the season. In their first seven games, the Packers played three teams with winning records. In their next nine games, the Packers will play eight games against teams with records currently more than .500, including two against the Detroit Lions. Green Bay has gotten by on a superb offense led by Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers(notes), but it must get more help from the second-worst passing defense in the league if it’s going to go undefeated.

The Indianapolis Colts are in the exact opposite situation of the Packers. The Colts are winless in their first eight games and ranked offensively and defensively in the bottom third of the league. After another big loss Sunday, Indianapolis has a 0-percent chance of winning the division or making the playoffs. They have a better chance of losing every game this season at 2.2 percent. That percentage is low thanks to upcoming games against two of the worst teams in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers.

Unlike the Colts, the 0-7 Dolphins haven’t lost many games by large margins; instead, they have struggled to close out games. Like Indianapolis, Miami has 0-percent chance of winning the division or making the playoffs and has a 4.1 percent winless probability. The Dolphins have a tough remaining schedule, facing only three teams with losing records. Two of those three losing teams are the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Thanks to the high level of parity in the NFL, the chances one of these teams going undefeated or winless are low. However, if the season continues to play out with the Packers blowing out teams, the Colts getting blown out and the Dolphins crumbling down the stretch, one of these teams could go down in the record books, for better or for worse.

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Updated Tuesday, Nov 1, 2011