AccuScore: Close call between Saints, Falcons

More: NFC East | NFC North | NFC West

AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division and making the playoffs.

Pierre Thomas(notes)

(Dave Einsel/AP Photo)

New Orleans Saints
The Saints have a mere 1.4-percent edge ahead of Atlanta to win the division. New Orleans was last in the NFC South in '08, so there is a good chance that the NFC South will see another case of a team going from worst to first (or second). The Saints were actually second in the division last season in margin of victory. The key will be running back Pierre Thomas. For the past two seasons, the team tried to feature the combo of Deuce McAllister(notes) and Reggie Bush(notes), but they finally realized they are 6-3 the past two seasons when Thomas had at least 10 carries.

Atlanta Falcons
Every team in this division has a tougher schedule in '09 vs. '08. The Falcons have the most pronounced increase in difficulty. Their '09 opponents won 59 percent of their '08 games. Their '08 opponents won just 47 percent. While nine out of 10 players perform worse against better teams, Matt Ryan(notes) and Michael Turner's(notes) performance was especially correlated to the quality of the opponent. Turner averaged 6.3 ypc and 158 yards per game vs. teams with losing records. He averaged a paltry 3.54 ypc and 79 yards per game against teams .500 or better. Matt Ryan's QBR was 108 vs. losing teams, just 85 vs. teams .500 or better. The Falcons play two games vs. teams under .500 in '08 and they are not exactly pushovers (at San Francisco, home vs. Buffalo). Atlanta should be a better team with the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez(notes), but they will have a tough time approaching double digit wins (25 percent).

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers ran over defenses in '08 to a 12-win season. Using AccuScore's defensive power ratings, Carolina had the third-easiest schedule in terms of opponent defensive power rating in '08. In '09 they face the third-hardest schedule. Running back performance is strongly dictated by the quality of opposing defenses (read about Michael Turner above). It is no coincidence that DeAngelo Williams(notes) averaged just 2.7 ypc against the Vikings (No. 1 run defense) and 2.8 vs. the Bears (No. 5 run defense). Even if Williams is very good this season (more than 1,000 yards, 10-plus TDs) he will not put up the gaudy numbers of '08. Without that level of production from the running game, Jake Delhomme's(notes) deficiencies are exposed. Carolina is expected to take a significant step backwards in '09 due to the tougher run defenses it will face and some troubling preseason injuries on their own defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs' second-half collapse in '08 triggered a purge of key personnel and they are clearly rebuilding. Newcomer Byron Leftwich(notes) won the starting QB job over fellow veteran Luke McCown(notes) and rookie Josh Freeman(notes). The running game should be solid with the duo of Derrick Ward(notes) and Earnest Graham(notes). The defense has enough remnants from years past to be better than average. We expect to see Tampa Bay hand one or maybe two division rivals a costly loss this season, but it is still expected to slide down the rankings and finish below .500.

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