World Series Game 3 scouting report
Inside Edge, a leading baseball scouting and information service, will provide scouting reports to Yahoo! Sports throughout the MLB playoffs. Here's their breakdown of Game 3 of the 2007 World Series between the Colorado Rockies and Boston Red Sox.
HITTERS
• The Rockies are hoping a trip back to Coors Field can help them out of their collective postseason slump. They are batting .209 as a team in their last six games. Only one Rockies hitter, Matt Holliday, has batted over .250 since the division series ended.
• Here is what to watch from a few Rockies who are struggling at the plate:
Rockies hitters who are struggling in the postseason | ||
Hitter | Postseason BAVG | Behind the struggle |
Willie Taveras | .120 (3-for-25) | He's 0-for-15 against fastballs and yet has not swung and missed one. |
.182 (6-for-33) | Struck out in only 11 percent of his at-bats in the regular season, but has K'd in almost a quarter of his post-season AB's (8-of-33). | |
.200 (3-for-15) | Has not put up much of a fight with two strikes (1-for-10). He has taken four strikes on 0-1 counts to get to 0-2. | |
• Colorado outfielder Brad Hawpe is usually a very good fastball hitter, but he has made solid contact only one time in 19 October at-bats ending with the hard stuff. Red Sox right-handers Josh Beckett, Eric Gagne and Jon Papelbon have struck Hawpe out with their fastballs in the last two games.
• Current Red Sox hitters are a combined 30-for-93 (.323 batting average) against Game 3 starter Josh Fogg.
• Here's one reason the Sox might want to start David Ortiz at first base now that the Series shifts to the National League park in Colorado. Big Papi has put six balls in play with the count in his favor this postseason. He homered twice, doubled, and hit three outs right on the button (1.000 well-hit average). Rockies Game 3 starting pitcher Josh Fogg has fallen behind Ortiz in five of his six career plate appearances. Papi is 3-for-5 in those at-bats.
PITCHERS
• Boston pitchers have done a great job of stifling big innings; they have not allowed back-to-back hits in the 18 innings they have pitched against the Rockies in the series.
• Keep an eye on Daisuke Matsuzaka after he reaches 45 pitches. Here's why:
Dice-K's performance before and after 45 pitches | ||||
Pitch Count | BAVG | SLG | H | AB |
First 45 pitches | .222 | .322 | 78 | 351 |
After 45 pitches | .272 | .470 | 132 | 485 |
• In October, opponents are batting .185 (5-for-27) against Dice-K before he reaches 45 pitches, and .424 (14-for-33) afterwards. His off-speed pitches appear to be more hittable the longer his outings last; Eleven of the 14 hits after his forty-fifth pitch have come against non-fastballs.
• Colorado starter Josh Fogg is a finesse pitcher who averages 88 mph on his fastball. He will need to place his pitches well tonight – the Red Sox drew a walk in 8.6 percent of their plate appearances against pitches under 90 mph this season. That was the highest percentage of any team.
• Fogg may want to stay away from his slow curveball tonight. October opponents are 4-for-4 against it with a home run and a double. Red Sox hitters were 1-for-2 with a home run from Mike Lowell against Fogg's deuce back in their June meeting.
• Working ahead in the count is important against the patient Red Sox offense. Fogg will need to do a better job of this than he did in his last start (Game 3 of the NLCS). He threw only 48 percent first-pitch strikes in that outing and got two of his first three pitches in the at-bat over for a strike 50 percent of the time. Both of those marks are well below league average.
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