O'Neal trade shifts conference landscape
Pau Gasol's trade to Los Angeles and Shaquille O'Neal's move to Phoenix have further tightened the Western Conference race. With apologies to the Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers, here’s a look at the West’s Best Six. Record-wise, of course.
Why the West should worry: Shaquille O’Neal, despite his declining athleticism, is said to weigh about 315 pounds, light by his standards. Opposing teams are likely going to have to double-team him at least occasionally, opening up the rest of the court for Phoenix’s many shooters. O’Neal also is excellent at finding cutters and should prove to be a good passer from the high post. Coach Mike D’Antoni and point guard Steve Nash might be the two best offensive minds in the game, so chances are they’ll find a way to put O’Neal in positions where he can be successful. More important, the addition of O’Neal allows Amare Stoudemire to stop masquerading as a center and move to power forward where he’ll be less exposed defensively.
Why the Suns should worry: O’Neal turns 36 in March. And he’s recently been sidelined with bursitis in his left hip. And, well, 36-year-old, 315-pound centers with bad hips don’t strike fear in opponents like they used to. O’Neal’s struggles to stay on the floor in Miami weren’t limited to injury. He also routinely found himself in foul trouble. As one rival Western Conference executive said, “This just gives us more ways to exploit them.” If memory serves right, the Suns like to run. O’Neal? He lumbers. Losing Shawn Marion also cost Phoenix its most versatile defender, a pogo-legged rebounder and the one player who seemed to fit best sprinting alongside Nash. The Suns are now more dependent on Grant Hill, which, given Hill’s injury history, is always a risk.
Outlook: This much is clear: O’Neal should immediately help the Suns in the locker room. Marion was too insecure to play alongside Nash and Stoudemire, both of whom had reportedly tired of the teammate’s unhappiness. While the Suns have talked openly of having chemistry problems, O’Neal is a goofy, fun-loving soul who can warm any locker room. Said Nash: “I think the Big Aristotle wants to be friends with us.” O’Neal also comes to the Suns motivated after listening to critics call for his retirement. The first half of the season has already passed; by the time next week’s All-Star break comes and goes, O’Neal will be able to sniff the playoffs. That’s the cup-is-half-full forecast. The pessimistic view? He’s just lost too much physically to help Phoenix make a sustained playoff march. The guess here: The Suns will have a tough time getting out of the second round.
Why the West should worry: The Mavericks continue to look at ways to land Jason Kidd, who, given the keys to an offense featuring Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard, is enough to make opponents sweat. Even without Kidd, Dallas is capable of beating any team in the league on any given night. Howard is fast developing into one of the better small forwards in the game. Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse, provided he doesn’t leave in a trade for Kidd, provide a formidable one-two punch off the bench. There’s also the feeling that these Mavericks, after suffering a pair of embarrassing collapses in each of the previous two postseasons, are waiting until March to shift into a higher gear.
Why the Mavericks should worry: Unlike last season when they piled up 67 wins, the Mavericks haven't shown much consistency. And even if they want Kidd, landing him could cost a lot. Devin Harris is young, good and getting better. Stackhouse is an important presence off the bench and in the locker room. If Dallas also has to throw in either center DeSagana Diop or forward Brandon Bass the price could be too high. And no matter what happens the remainder of the regular season, the Mavericks still have their recent history of shaky playoff exits. Nowitzki, in particular, must prove he won’t wither under pressure.
Outlook: The Mavericks have the ability to play big against Memphis and Phoenix or small against the Spurs. That versatility will serve them well in the playoffs. Still, Dallas didn’t make many changes to the roster responsible for last season’s flameout against Golden State. If the Mavericks want to win a championship this season their best bet might be to go all-in for Kidd.
Why the West should worry: Anyone see Chris Paul’s 42-point, nine-assist, eight-steal performance against Steve Nash on Wednesday? Paul’s already an All-Star. The only question now is whether he also becomes a legitimate MVP candidate. With the possible exception of Nash, no player has done a better job of controlling the pace of a game than Paul. David West is a matchup headache for opposing teams; too quick for power forwards and too strong for smaller forwards. Tyson Chandler, meanwhile, is a perfect fit at center for the Hornets’ run-and-fun style.
Why the Hornets should worry: They need a bench. Or at least more of one. Jannero Pargo can shoot, but Bobby Jackson has seen better days. Paul and West are already playing too many minutes. At this pace, they’ll be worn out by April. Ryan Bowen has begun to get more time than Rasual Butler. That says something.
Outlook: The Hornets have a formidable starting five, but little more. If they can’t make a trade to improve their bench, they’re going to have problems. Though they’ve got a bright future, their lack of experience doesn’t speak to a long playoff run.
Why the West should worry: Memphis just gave Kobe Bryant another skilled post player while he waits for his talented 20-year-old center to mend. Landing Pau Gasol sets up the Lakers for both the short- and long-term. Gasol should fit well in Phil Jackson’s triangle offense. He can score inside and out and is a willing passer, allowing him to complement Bryant and Andrew Bynum. Lamar Odom no longer has to shoulder the pressure of being Bryant’s sidekick and should be able to focus on being the type of play-making forward the Lakers had hoped to get when they traded O’Neal for him. Derek Fisher had already proven to be a valuable addition, behind the three-point line and in the locker room. The biggest cause for concern among West opponents: Bryant smells blood. He knows he has a legitimate chance to win a title with this group and he’ll do everything possible to make that come true.
Why the Lakers should worry: Gasol has said publicly he’s ready for the pressure of playing next to Bryant on the league’s highest-profile team. That, however, is in contrast to what he told one of his former Grizzlies teammates upon leaving Memphis. Gasol, said the teammate, had mixed feelings about the trade for two reasons: He didn’t want to leave countryman Juan Carlos Navarro; and he wasn’t sure how he’d handle playing with lofty expectations. Gasol has yet to win a single playoff game in his career and many of the younger Lakers are relatively untested when it comes to postseason pressure. The biggest concern: Bynum’s knee injury. He’s expected back before the playoffs, but no one knows at what level.
Outlook: The Lakers had already begun to look like a contender before Bynum went down. The addition of Gasol, at such a low cost, figures to keep them among the conference’s elite. Bryant and Fisher will need to boost their younger teammates’ confidence as the playoffs approach, but they also have one of the best coaches in NBA history on their side. If Bynum can regain his pre-injury form, no one is going to want to play these guys. It seems a stretch to expect the Lakers to put everything together this season, but take a look at the rest of the conference: A run to the NBA Finals isn’t out of the question.
Why the West should worry: Manu Ginobili is having the best season of his career, statistically. Tim Duncan remains one of the most dominant big men in the game. Ime Udoka looks like a good minimum-salary pickup. Oh, and they’re the defending champions. The core of their roster has won three titles in five years. That’s a lot of playoff battles.
Why the Spurs should worry: Gregg Popovich has long considered field-goal percentage defense a barometer of the team’s success. The Spurs have routinely ranked in the top three in that category during Duncan’s tenure. This season? They’re ranked 19th. Tony Parker is sidelined with a sore left heel and Duncan and Ginobili previously had their own injury problems. Damon Stoudamire is a nice fill-in for Parker, but brings his own liabilities.
Outlook: The Spurs’ primary goal is to get healthy so they can better assess their roster. But that hasn’t stopped them from already looking for help. They had interest in Kyle Korver, but didn’t want to surrender a first-round draft pick to Philadelphia. Mike Miller has been discussed in recent conversations and Phoenix’s acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal also could prompt Spurs to look for size. Regardless, the Spurs have historically begun to peak after the All-Star break. It would be wise not to count them out just yet.
Why the West should worry: Carlos Boozer is an All-Star, Deron Williams deserves to be the same and the Jazz are 16-2 since Kyle Korver joined the rotation. After a difficult opening schedule, Utah has found some traction, putting together a 10-game winning streak. Williams and Boozer are a devastating pick-and-roll combo and Andrei Kirilenko seems to have at least temporarily accepted the fact he doesn’t need to be one of the team’s top offensive options. Korver is already looking like one of the season’s best acquisitions; on Wednesday he scored 27 points to beat Northwest rival Denver. Ronnie Brewer has been a nice addition to the starting lineup at shooting guard and the bench is more than solid.
Why the Jazz should worry: On some nights Boozer gives up almost as much as he gets. Mehmet Okur is a matchup problem on one end of the floor, but needs help guarding O’Neal and Tim Duncan. For now, Utah’s biggest concern might be the one thing they can’t do anything about: the schedule. The Jazz close the season with a brutal Spurs-Hornets-Mavericks-Nuggets-Rockets-Spurs stretch.
Outlook: The Jazz picked up some valuable experience during their ride to the conference finals last season. If they can avoid another meeting with Duncan and Kirilenko plays tough, they’re more than capable of making a return trip.
