Why did Providence basketball get snubbed by the NCAA Selection Committee?

PROVIDENCE — Half of Team A’s best four wins were against Utah on a neutral floor and at Butler.

Three of Team B’s 15 losses were to Saint Joseph’s at home, Drexel on a neutral floor and at Penn.

Team C’s best nonconference win was against Missouri, a program that just completed an 0-18 regular season in the SEC.

St. John’s, Villanova and Seton Hall, come on down. Welcome to the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.

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The Red Storm, Wildcats and Pirates were part of a dark Selection Sunday for the Big East. Providence was swept up in the carnage as well, left out of the 68-team field and awarded a bid to the NIT. St. John’s has declined its own invitation, and it’s just as well — the Red Storm’s immediate focus, along with the remainder of the league, should turn to preventing this from happening again.

“My focus is having us be in the NCAA Tournament in the future,” Providence coach Kim English said. “It kind of stops there.”

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Conference commissioner Val Ackerman was prompted to release a formal statement on Monday evening. Friars athletic director Steve Napolillo did so the previous night. Men’s basketball coaches from Connecticut's Dan Hurley to Creighton's Greg McDermott stumped in favor of their colleagues, the majority of whom were left out of the fun.

The Huskies, Marquette and the Bluejays look like separating powers at this point. They all have veteran program leaders, significant recent success and the administrative backing to sustain current form. The rest were left chasing this March, and they have ground to make up.

It goes beyond just leaning on league games to cover the difference. The conference finished second in collective efficiency per KenPom.com and fifth in the NCAA’s compiled NET rankings, which incorporates factors like quality of victories, strength of schedule and box score performance. Not even those strong placements among other leagues were enough to sway the Selection Committee to add more conference teams to the field.

According to the NET, the Wildcats were the only member of this excluded group to have a nonconference strength of schedule within the top third of the sport. St. John’s barely made the top half at 172 — the Pirates and Providence fell shy at 227 and 230, respectively. That was an obvious sore spot several excluded bubble teams had in common.

The Friars were a bit unlucky. Their two in-state rivalry games against Rhode Island and Brown both came against teams that finished below .500 overall. Kansas State and Georgia were both top-100 games at Baha Mar, but neither team made a serious push to join the sport’s elite this season.

The games Providence chose to play otherwise were underwhelming. Columbia, Milwaukee, Lehigh, Wagner and Sacred Heart carried a NET average of 256.4, an anvil dragging down predetermined meetings with Wisconsin (21) in the Gavitt Games and Oklahoma (46) in the Big East-Big 12 Battle. The Sooners — the first at-large team left out of the bracket — were the only true road foe on that list, and they handed the Friars a 72-51 thrashing.

“You could play a tougher schedule, and it doesn’t matter if you win,” English said. “You just need to have a good offense, honestly. If you schedule tougher and you have a good offense, that’s shown to be rewarded if you win a couple of those games.”

The last five seasons of data at KenPom.com offer some evidence to support that viewpoint. An average of 8.8 top-40 adjusted offenses have missed the NCAA Tournament field, with matching highs of 10 in 2019-20 and 2023-24. An average of 11.8 top-40 adjusted defenses have been excluded, and a new high of 15 was set on Sunday.

That’s just three bids, right? This year’s bubble offered a harsh reminder of how thin the margins can be. North Carolina State (ACC), Oregon (Pac-12), Duquesne (Atlantic 10), UAB (American) and New Mexico (Mountain West) all claimed extra spots alongside projected at-large qualifiers from their respective leagues.

That was enough to squeeze Boise State, Colorado, Virginia and Colorado State to the First Four in Dayton. Oklahoma, the Pirates, Indiana State and Pittsburgh weren’t as fortunate. The Red Storm and Providence were pushed even further down the list of teams waiting for a call that never came.

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“No one’s feeling sorry for us,” English said. “We’re not feeling sorry for ourselves. It’s up to us as coaches to get our players to play better offense and to win meaningful games early in the season and to win games by larger margins.”

Providence carried the nation’s 119th most efficient offense into its NIT matchup with Boston College on Tuesday. That’s a significant jump from English’s last team at George Mason — the Patriots were 233rd according to KenPom in 2022-23 — but bettered only DePaul (267th) in the conference this season. The Friars have rebounded late on defense after a struggle through some of league play, checking in at 18th prior to meeting the Eagles.

Bryce Hopkins missing the last 20 games due to a left knee injury changes all of this, of course. Providence would have expected to bank the extra win or two necessary to reach the field. The Friars anticipate him making a healthy return in 2024-25, and a couple of different philosophical avenues could await him.

Does Providence compile an even more helpless group of nonconference opponents to visit downtown and pummel them, attempting to further strengthen their analytical case? Could the Friars engage with programs from power conferences or strong mid-majors to agree on what would be certain Quadrant 1 games either home, road or neutral?

All of this, of course, isn’t meant to absolve the NCAA from culpability. The vagueness surrounding the NET and the seeming subjectivity of some selections to the field create the real frustration. Perspective and personal stakes inflame the arguments that follow, and few are left satisfied.

The future goal for Providence? Avoid becoming Teams A, B or C. Build a roster strong enough and unleash a playing style dominant enough to remove all doubt before the debates even begin.

bkoch@providencejournal.com

On X: @BillKoch25

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Providence basketball fell short in NCAA's post-season analytics