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Where does Colorado State men’s basketball team stand for NCAA Tournament selection?

kevin lytle, fort collins coloradoan
·4 min read
Colorado State guard Nique Clifford (10) celebrates during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Creighton Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo. Colorado State won 69-48. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Colorado State guard Nique Clifford (10) celebrates during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Creighton Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo. Colorado State won 69-48. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

A three-game losing slide late in the season has many fans on edge.

A team that looked not only certain to be in the NCAA Tournament but to potentially land the best seed in program history has wobbled.

So, what does it mean for the Colorado State men’s basketball team?

Here’s a look at where the Rams stand ahead of the home finale at 2 p.m. Saturday, March 2, vs. Wyoming:

The pros of the NCAA Tournament resume

Yes, CSU (20-9, 8-8 Mountain West) has lost three games in a row and is seventh in the Mountain West, but the Rams have a strong foundation built beginning in November.

The NET is one of the NCAA’s primary sorting tools for the NCAA Tournament and the Rams are No. 30 in NET. CSU has eight combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, which is tied with San Diego State and Utah State as most in the MW.

Highlights of CSU’s resume:

  • Ten top-100 NET wins (Louisiana Tech, Boston College, Creighton, Colorado, Washington, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State).

  • Neutral-site 21-point win over Creighton, a team No. 12 in NET and currently projected as a three- or four-seed.

  • Wins over high-major foes Colorado (29 NET), Washington (71) and Boston College (91).

  • Conference wins over five of the six teams above Rams in the standings, highlighted by victories over Utah State and San Diego State.

  • Other strong NCAA Tournament metrics: No. 33 in KenPom, No. 27 in KPI, No. 37 in Bart Torvik's projections.

More: Colorado State basketball schedule, results for 2023-24 season

Worries on the NCAA Tournament resume

The biggest knock on CSU’s resume is the most obvious one: the road.

The selection committee usually highly values road wins, and CSU is just 3-7 in true road games with no notable wins.

The victories are at Northern Colorado (184 NET), LMU (191 NET) and Fresno State (217 NET). The final road game is at Air Force (272).

CSU missed huge opportunities at San Diego State, New Mexico and UNLV in recent weeks. Even one win would have locked the Rams in the field and helped boost the seed.

The road losses to the top MW teams aren’t “bad” by NCAA resume standards. CSU’s lone “bad” loss this season (again, by resume standards) is the stunning defeat at Wyoming (170 NET).

CSU’s BPI rating is 68, but that’s not a huge concern because the other high numbers will negate the BPI effect. The BPI generally ranks MW teams lower than other metrics do.

Is CSU on the bubble?

Some fans worried by the February losses naturally bring up 2015, when CSU was No. 29 in RPI and left out of the Big Dance.

The problem is the comparison is apples to oranges. Other than the school being discussed, everything is different from that tournament nine years ago. First, the RIP to the RPI, which has been dead for years (meaningless fact: CSU would be No. 15 in RPI right now).

The 2015 team: RPI of 29 but KenPom of 68 and Sagarin of 57. CSU’s strength of schedule ranking (per ESPN) that season was No. 197. CSU’s this season is No. 80.

That 2015 team had one high-major win (over a 16-18 Colorado) and beat five teams who finished in top-100 of RPI. CSU had one nonconference win over an eventual NCAA Tournament team (New Mexico State, who auto qualified and was a No. 15 seed). The MW that year had three NCAA Tournament teams, and this season it’s projected to be five or six.

All that is to say this 2024 CSU resume is nothing like that of 2015.

Being “on the bubble” would mean a loss in the next game would put CSU outside most NCAA Tournament projections. That’s not the case.

CSU is in the field in all 114 projections complied at BracketMatrix.com, with an average seed of 7.53. A loss to either Wyoming or Air Force in the final two regular season games would push the Rams into nervous territory, but the strong resume is still there.

The losing streak has damaged CSU’s seed line and reduced margin for error, but not eliminated it.

There is work to do for CSU to lock itself in (and try and improve its seeding), but the Rams are in right now. Wins in two of their last three (with the third being the first game in the MW tournament) would likely put them in.

Follow sports reporter Kevin Lytle on X (formerly known as Twitter) and Instagram @Kevin_Lytle.

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Where does CSU men’s basketball stand for NCAA Tournament selection?