Week 17 fantasy matchups to target or avoid: Rams in smash spot
By Jeff Hicks, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. The numbers shown will be based on a rolling 10-week data set.
Each week until the end of the fantasy football season I will be looking at matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.
Matchup To Target: Ronald Jones @ New York Jets (Yahoo DFS salary $24)
It’s Jets week for the Buccaneers, which means the RoJo truthers bandwagon has another week to keep the party going. The Jets' run defense has been an easy target, ranking 32nd in aFPA against opposing running backs. Over the past 10 weeks, teams are averaging 25.3 carries and 121.6 rushing yards per game against the Jets. Jones has the lead role as long as Leonard Fournette is on IR and is one of the safer options for your league championship.
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Matchup To Target: Rams Passing Offense @ Baltimore Ravens
Joe Burrow put up an otherworldly fantasy performance against the Ravens Week 16 and has passed for over 900 yards against them in two games this season. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Company head east Week 17 and have a chance to put up a 40-burger like Cincinnati did last week. Over the past 10 weeks, Rams receivers and tight ends are averaging 60.54 full-point PPR points. Over that same span, the Ravens are allowing an average of 77.3 fantasy points per game to those positions.
Matchup To Avoid: Chase Edmonds ($20) and James Conner ($26) @ Dallas Cowboys
It seemed like Conner was close to playing in Week 16, and will be needed in Week 17 at Dallas. The Cowboys are fourth in running back aFPA and average fewer than 100 rushing yards allowed per game since Week 7. Edmonds may have the best chance to succeed against the Cowboys (5.5 YPC on 89 carries) but a smarter Cardinals game plan should revolve around Dallas’ weak secondary. Over the past month, Arizona has scored 33, 32, 12, and 16 points. A surging Cowboys team is not a great matchup for the Cardinals.
Matchup To Avoid: Ben Roethlisberger ($25) vs. Cleveland Browns
Despite countless injuries and COVID-19 absences, the Cleveland Browns have allowed the third-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks since Week 7. Since Pittsburgh’s Week 7 bye, Roethlisberger is averaging 232.25 yards and 35 passing attempts per game. That has been weighed down by his dismal Week 15 and 16 performances in which he attempted 60 passes for a combined 307 passing yards. Big Ben is being asked to keep the Steelers alive in games that they have little chance to win. After getting smoked in Week 16 in Kansas City, the Steelers could be in for another rough day against Nick Chubb and Cleveland. This game has 13-6 written all over it.
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Matchup To Target: Gerald Everett ($15) vs. Detroit Lions
There are some good targets at tight end this week, but I like Gerald Everett to continue to produce. He has two straight games of at least four catches and 60 yards, and has multiple receptions in every Seahawks game since their Week 9 bye. The Lions rank 27th against opposing tight ends and play just well enough against mediocre teams to keep this game close, keeping Everett relevant. If Jared Goff is back in Week 17, I expect Seattle’s seven-point favored spread to shrink. Detroit has allowed at least 50 receiving yards to a tight end in seven games since Week 7.
This article originally appeared in its full form on 4for4.com
Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.
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