UNC Basketball at Virginia: Game preview, prediction and more
For the first time since late December, the ACC-leading UNC men’s basketball team does not have a mid-week game.
North Carolina (20-6, 12-3) is coming off a convincing, 96-81 victory over Virginia Tech last Saturday. This was exactly the type of game UNC needed, given it suffered yet another Tuesday loss to Syracuse the game before. Armando Bacot recorded yet another double-double, while four starters scored in double-figures.
The Tar Heels now turn their attention to the Virginia Cavaliers, who suffered arguably their worst loss of the season (75-41) against the Hokies on Monday. UVA (20-7, 11-5) is still contending for the ACC regular-season crown, as it trails North Carolina by just a game-and-a-half, but it’ll need to beat UNC on Saturday afternoon.
Odds are stacked against the Tar Heels for Saturday’s 4 p.m. ET tip-off, as they haven’t won in Charlottesville since Feb. 25, 2012. The Cavaliers employ a pace slow as molasses, draining the clock and looking for the perfect shot attempt, which runs completely different than North Carolina’s lightning-fast pace.
If UNC wants to win Saturday, it’ll need to score early and often. The Tar Heels’ style of play, if executed effectively, will put pressure on UVA by forcing it to play out of system and rush shots.
Let’s see a few things UNC needs to do on Saturday, in order to escape Charlottesville with a win:
Key to victory for UNC
Tempo is going to determine who wins Saturday’s lone regular season matchup in The South’s Oldest Rivalry.
We’ve touched on it a bit already, but North Carolina and Virginia are two completely different basketball teams.
UNC is a fast-paced, offensive-minded team that looks to take shots early in the shot clock. UVA is a snail-slow, defensive-minded team that uses every bit of the shot clock to look for the perfect shot. This is reflected in the ACC team stats – the Tar Heels lead the conference with 82.8 points per game, the Cavaliers are second-to-last with 64.1 points per game, but have the ACC’s best defense by limiting opponents to just 58.6 points per game.
There’s no doubt North Carolina will continue pushing the pace on Saturday, but it actually needs to convert on its up-tempo possessions. I’ve counted too many times where UNC gets a great fastbreak opportunity, only for it to come away empty.
If you fall asleep while UVA’s bringing the ball up the court, I don’t blame you. But you’ll want to keep your eyes glued to how efficiently the Tar Heels can run their offense.
Something to watch
As good as the North Carolina offense has played in recent weeks, defense has not played at its lockdown level like in UNC’s 10-game winning streak.
The Tar Heels didn’t allow a single opponent to score more than 70 points between their Wednesday, Dec. 20 win against Oklahoma and Saturday, Jan. 27 victory over Florida State. Every UNC opponent has scored at least 74 points in games since, with four 80-point outputs.
North Carolina does not have to worry about UVA putting up 70 or 80 points, but it should be conscious of how large a possible deficit grows.
Once the Cavaliers build a lead against you, it’s tough to get it back.
What you need to know
WHAT? UNC (20-6, 12-3 ACC) at UVA (20-7, 11-5)
WHEN? Saturday, Feb. 24 at 4 p.m. ET
WHERE? John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Va.
TV? ESPN (Watch and stream the game live on WatchESPN)
RADIO? Sirius XM (Channel 82 or 193)
LINE? N/A
LAST MEETING? UVA won 68-59 on Thursday, March 9, 2023 at the ACC Tournament in Greensboro, NC
ALL-TIME SERIES? UNC leads, 106-43
PREDICTION? UNC 80, UVA 62
