UFC 271 betting: Can Robert Whittaker overcome Israel Adesanya's massive advantages?
Israel Adesanya has lost once in 22 professional MMA fights and has never lost at middleweight. He’s scored 15 knockouts among his 21 wins, including a second-round TKO of Robert Whittaker at UFC 243 in 2019.
He’ll meet Whittaker again in the main event of UFC 271 on Saturday in a rematch for the middleweight title at the Toyota Center in Houston.
If you are taking Adesanya, welcome aboard the bandwagon, but be prepared to pay for the experience.
Adesanya is a hefty -300 favorite over Whittaker at BetMGM. Whittaker, who is ranked No. 7 in the Yahoo Sports pound-for-pound list and a more modest No. 14 on UFC.com, is +240.
A bettor won’t get rich laying 3-1 every time out, but is there value in taking Whittaker at +240? Well, he can’t fight any worse than he did in 2019, when he was dropped at the end of the first round and finished in the second. He has to be better because that was a low point for him.
That said, he has a lot of ground to cover. He didn’t use his wrestling much in the first fight and that cost him, but Adesanya has proven adept at wrestling defense. He’s got an 80 percent takedown defense even though virtually everyone he’s faced has gone in with the goal of putting him on his back.
It’s not that easy, even though it looks like it should be.
Adesanya’s movement and length are keys to this fight and something Whittaker is going to have to overcome. Adesanya has a seven-inch reach advantage and for a counter-striker who likes to work from the outside, that’s massive.
Whittaker’s going to have to mix up his attack, perhaps use the calf kick to slow Adesanya’s movement, and get to the distance where he can land his strikes.
Adesanya is one of the sport’s smartest fighters, and he’ll be anticipating it.
If there is a middleweight in the world who can beat Adesanya, it’s Whittaker. But I don’t see it happening now.
I’ll take a deep breath and lay the -300 to play Adesanya to win.
Best bets for UFC 271 main card
I like Derrick Lewis to win in the co-main event over Tai Tuivasa. Lewis, the UFC’s all-time KO leader, is a -200 favorite in what should be a stand-up battle. Tuivasa is +170.
Lewis is bigger and more experienced and seems like the safer bet. I’ll take him at -200. BetMGM doesn’t have its props up yet, but I’d also look at playing Lewis by KO when the number does appear.
The most intriguing fight on the card is a middleweight bout between Jared Cannonier and Derek Brunson. Both have been on a roll, but Cannonier is a -165 favorite. Brunson comes back at +140.
Cannonier is the pick here by decision. Brunson’s been on a roll, but his streak has largely been against lesser opposition than Cannonier’s faced. Brunson’s on a five-fight winning streak, but they’ve been over Elias Theodorou, Ian Heinisch, Edmen Shahbazyan, Kevin Holland and Darren Till.
Cannonier is 4-1 in his last five, but they’re wins over David Branch, Anderson Silva, Jack Hermansson and Kelvin Gastelum, with a loss to Whittaker squeezed in there.
I don’t think Brunson is going to have the kind of success getting Cannonier down that he had getting Holland, Shahbazyan and Till down, and that’s a problem for him.
Thus, I’ll lay the -165 and play Cannonier to win.
