Samulski's Arbitrary Fantasy Awards Heading into Week 13

Welcome to another edition of the SAF (Samulski's Arbitrary Fantasy) Awards! I'm your host, Eric Samulski, and we've come to the twelfth week of this weekly awards segment where we shine a light on the best performances, the disappointing performances, and the most misleading performances in the week of NFL action.

As the name states, the SAF Awards are totally arbitrary but no less valid and desirable awards given out by me based on the committee of voices in my head. Some awards will carry over every week while others will emerge from the ether based on my mood or the mercurial winds of pop culture trends.

While you will find plenty of actionable fantasy football information here, you're not likely to get many of the fantasy football acronyms that make me feel like a real estate agent: EPA, aDOT, YACON, etc. Those are all valuable and have their place, but that place is not here. This is the place where we give out awards, talk some trash, and have some fun.

If you have players you believe are deserving of awards or want to suggest awards for the next week, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@SamskiNYC). But without further ado, let's hand out some hardware that doesn't exist and people wouldn't really want if it did!

Star of the Week: Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills

I usually don't like putting quarterbacks up here because they are almost always the highest scoring players on the week, but given how much heat Allen has taken in the media and from TV talking heads these days, we need to talk about his performance this week.

Allen completed 29-of-51 passes for 339 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against the Eagles. He also ran for 81 yards and two touchdowns, which was good for 40.7 points in half-PPR formats. Yet, all the discussion after the game is that he has not won a game in overtime and he's not "a winner," which is asinine and stupid. What more was he supposed to do to win that game?

Also, the national discussion on Allen's turnovers has also gotten out of control. Even Eagles’ cornerback Darius Slay said the criticism is off base because Allen throws the ball so often that, as a cornerback, Slay knows corners are bound to get one or two picks if you're going to keep dropping back to throw that often.

On the season, Allen has an interception rate of 3%, which ranks 28th in the NFL. That's not great, sure, but Jalen Hurts is 26th with a 2.8% rate, Tua Tagovailoa is 24th with a 2.7% rate, Matthew Stafford is 21st with a 2.6% rate.

Pro Football Focus also has a stat called Turnover Worthy Plays, where they grade every throw and mark whether the throw was poor enough to warrant a turnover. This is important because we understand that sometimes passes are tipped at the line or dropped by receivers and those interceptions are not 100% on the quarterback. Allen ranks fifth-best among all quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks with a 2.2% turnover worthy play rate. Justin Herbert is at 2.6%. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts are at 2.7%, and Tua Tagovailoa is at 3.4%.

On the season, Allen ranks first in passing touchdowns, third in passing yards, third in QBR, fourth in passing success rate, eighth in completion percentage, and sixth among all players in rushing touchdowns. The criticism of him as a player has gotten out of hand.

Hello, Boys; I'm Back Award: Kyren Williams - RB, Los Angeles Rams

Just like with Randy Quaid in "Independence Day," with this award, we shout out a player's return in a moment of pure glory.

In Williams' first game back, he rushed 16 times for 143 yards and caught all six of his targets for another 61 yards and two touchdowns, all of which amounted to 35.4 points in half-PPR formats. The 22 total opportunities were his second-highest of the season, so all of the talk about the Rams easing him in appears foolish.

When Kyren Williams is active, the Rams are 4-3, score 25 points per game and rank seventh in offensive DVOA. Without Williams, the Rams are 1-3, average just 14.25 points per game and have an offensive DVOA of 28th. He has a massive difference-maker for this offense, and they love having him back.

This award could also go to Pat Freiermuth - TE, Pittsburgh Steelers. In his second game back from IR, and his first game with a new offensive coordinator, Freiermuth saw a more significant role in the passing game with a 68% route participation and a 35% target share that led the team. The Steelers had their first 400 yard offensive day since before they decided to hire Matt Canada as offensive coordinator, so if this offense takes a step forward, Freiermuth could be at the center of it.

Breakout Player Award: Rashee Rice - WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Rashee Rice has been close to breaking out all year, but he has struggled with drops, and the Chiefs seem unwilling to give up on their other receiving options. However, with Kadarius Toney and Jerick McKinnon hurt and Marquez Valdes-Scantling still reeling after dropping the game-winning touchdown in Week 11, the Chiefs finally leaned more heavily on Rice.

The rookie led the team in targets, catches, and yards, finishing with 107 yards and a touchdown on eight catches, good for 20.7 points in half-PPR leagues. He saw a season-high 71% route participation and is clearly Mahomes' second most-trust option after Travis Kelce. What's more important is that Rice did the vast majority of his damage AFTER dropping two passes early in the game, which shows some trust from his team.

One potential issue is that Rice does most of his work around the line of scrimmage with just a 6.2 yard average route depth per PFF. Patrick Mahomes also leads the NFL, far and away, in total yards after the catch behind the line of scrimmage and EPA on passes behind the line of scrimmage, so the vast majority of this Chiefs passing attack is actually behind the line of scrimmage. That could give Rice a riskier profile for consistent strong games.

Undertaker Award: Gabe Davis - WR, Buffalo Bills

Everybody knows the GIF. Some of us were alive to see it live. But this award is given to a player who we left for dead who simply came roaring back.

This week, that award goes to Gabe Davis, who exploded with six receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles, good for 19.5 points in half-PPR formats. In the two games with Joe Brady at offensive coordinator, the Bills offense has gone back to looking lethal, and Gabe Davis has run routes on 96% of dropbacks. Brady is spreading the ball around a lot more, using the running backs in the passing game and getting Khalil Shakir involved as well, so Davis won't always be locked into big targets, but he had a 23% target share on Sunday and saw 45% of the team's air yards, so he could be primed for some big games down the stretch.

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Horizon Award: Jalin Hyatt - WR, New York Giants

The Giants have won two games in a row under Tommy "Cutlets" DeVito and while he is likely not the answer at quarterback, he's done a great job of helping to unlock Hyatt. The rookie delivered his best fantasy performance of the season on Sunday, catching 5-of-6 targets for 109 yards, which was good for 15.9 points. He also registered a season-high 70% route participation, 26% target share, and 65% air yards share.

The Giants are not a great offense, and there's a chance Tyrod Taylor comes back after the bye, but this is a team that needs to give Hyatt more chances to show what he can do and see if he can carry the torch for this receiving group next year or simply be a long-term WR2. Given his deep ball prowess, we could see a few more big plays from Hyatt to end the season.

The Office Space Award: Kyle Pitts - TE, Atlanta Falcons

This award highlights a player who we're all looking at on our rosters and thinking:

This week, that award goes to Kyle Pitts. Again. While Bijan Robinson has taken off in recent weeks, Kyle Pitts remains stuck in neutral. He has not had more than five targets since Week 6 and has not posted a double-digit fantasy day in half-PPR scoring since then either. In fact, he hasn't even scored eight points.

Over that span, his route participation has dipped to 66%, his target share is just 17%, and his share of the team air yards is just 18%. There's no reason he needs to be on fantasy radars other than his name value.

Ryan Gosling Award: A.T. Perry - WR, New Orleans Saints

Did you know George Clooney was originally cast as the lead in "The Notebook"? Did you know he was going to play a younger version of Paul Newman? Eventually, George Clooney decided not to go through with it, and Ryan Gosling was cast in the role, and the rest is history.

In the spirit of that moment, we give this award to the player who is set to take over a role vacated by a notable player ahead of them. This week, that award goes to A.T. Perry, who could see a much larger role in Week 13 with both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed banged up for the Saints and Michael Thomas already on IR.

Last week, Perry didn't show up much in the statsheet, but he ran a route on 80% of drop backs, which is now the second straight week he's done that. In those two weeks, Olave and Shaheed have combined for 43% of the team's targets and 60% of the air yards, so if they're both out of the lineup on Sunday, that's going to leave a lot of opportunity for Perry, who is coming off two straight 1,000 yards and 10+ touchdown seasons at Wake Forest.

I'll Be Back Award: Zack Moss - RB, Indianapolis Colts

Much like The Terminator, this award is for a player who is set to return emphatically.

On Tuesday morning reports came out that Jonathan Taylor suffered a thumb injury that was significant enough for him to have surgery and miss at least 2-3 weeks but, given the stat of the Colts season, probably the rest of the regular season. That means we could be looking at Zack Moss as the starter for the Colts for the remainder of the season.

In Weeks 1-5, before the Colts started to mix in Taylor in the running game, Moss played 84% of the team's snaps, handled 76% of the rushing attempts, ran routes on 61% of dropbacks, and took 85% of the short down and distance snaps. He also averaged 21.25 PPR points over that span. He was a low-end RB1 based on volume and should return to that same level or that of a high-end RB2 for the remainder of the season.

That's it for this week; we'll see you next Wednesday for another edition of the SAF Awards!