What do Saints draft tendencies forecast for Day 2 safety prospects?
By drafting highly graded prospects that addressed needs at wide receiver and left tackle, the New Orleans Saints struck a great balance in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft. Head coach Dennis Allen likely smartly anticipated the immediate run on receivers; the trade up to No. 11 looks strong in retrospect. And if Ohio State’s Chris Olave was the coveted target, then you make the move to ensure you get him. Allen’s comments on Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning that touted his aggressive nature bolstered the idea that – while still a need-based pick – the prospect had the right traits.
While it didn’t take too much capital, the decision to trade up for Washington’s pick exchanged the Saints’ only third and fourth round picks. That’s slightly harder to swallow when you consider how much this team builds through Rounds 2, 3, and 4 – and how much they trade up to do so. The players they’ve traded up for in those rounds include the following: Paulson Adebo, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Trey Hendrickson, Alvin Kamara, Vonn Bell, David Onyemata, and P.J. Williams. Having only one pick before Round 5 (at No. 49) doesn’t allow for much movement in the second round.
That said, the top two team needs were addressed with great prospects; there’s just as valid an argument for quality over quantity. Accordingly, that same philosophy – barring any magic trick trades – should carry over to their pick tonight at No. 49. And given the team has leaned in to addressing positions of need, the next position to turn to is safety. I’ve certainly done an exhaustive survey of several prospects at the role. I look at draft tendencies that can be highly predictive: a top one being which conferences their picks come from. Let’s see how that trend could play into their potential selections at safety in Round 2.
Saints’ draft tendencies: Big Ten and SEC players
Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports
A top team trend is New Orleans’ propensity to draft players out of the Big Ten and SEC conferences. Of the last 43 players drafted by the Saints since 2015, 18 came from the two conferences – evenly split at that with 9 each. That trend continues through their history in Rounds 2 to 4, with another even conference split for 8 total prospects from the Big Ten and SEC out of the 19 selected since 2015.
If you want to get nerdier, a further tendency by the team is to lean on defense for their selections out of those conferences in Rounds 2 to 4. Focusing on those 8 prospects drafted, 5 were defenders: three linebackers and two safeties. Pete Werner is in a different category than the other linebackers in Zack Baun and Alex Anzalone. Safety wise? Those picks were Vonn Bell and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. It’s safe to say they value skill players in these rounds that played in conferences that had top-level competition. That also fits the mold of several players at safety that New Orleans could target at No. 49.
Choice No. 1: Jaquan Brisker, Penn State
Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Oftentimes, the head coach tells you a lot about his draft choices if you choose to listen. We’ve learned this offseason Jeff Ireland has modified the prototype parameters set under Sean Payton; the implication is a bit of leniency in some regard. If you look at their selections in Round 1, you can start to tell where those may have been altered. Penning was lacking a bit in fundamentals, but he has the physical traits you’d covet and most notably, an aggressive nature. One Allen directly referenced in his press conference about Penning. Olave is not a physical specimen and has marginal play strength but is a polished route runner with the instincts necessary to transition to the next level. He also was a multi-sport athlete that played defensive back in addition to wide receiver.
That last point is paramount, and it goes both ways for defensive backs that spent time at wideout. Just take a look at Paulson Adebo’s ball skills that raked in three interceptions that tied the team lead in the 2021 season. Much like Adebo, another former wide receiver that transitioned to safety is Penn State’s Jaquan Brisker. Who also played basketball – like Olave.
Then take a look at his traits: lacking in size and explosiveness, but a playmaker with toughness and invaluable versatility to play in the box and in two-deep alignment. You can see the trends of Allen’s vision tell a story about both the players already drafted, and possible projections in Round 2. Allen certainly values both physical and mental toughness in his secondary players. Most telling is Brisker’s pre-draft mention of his talks with New Orleans and Buffalo, and that he was asked about his ability to play both strong and free safety. Precisely in line with the vision Allen has of two interchangeable players at the role.
His numbers are complementary to Marcus Maye’s, as is his skill set. Should the Saints see him fall to No. 49, they would have a near-perfect draft through the first two rounds.
Choice No. 2: Nick Cross, Maryland
(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
Another Big Ten player like Brisker, Nick Cross is a dark horse prospect that could easily be the pick for New Orleans. He has snaps in the post, slot, box, and single-high, and was the team leader in interceptions in all three seasons at Maryland. Defensive back coach Cory Robinson ran his positional drills at his pro day, and that can’t be discounted. Should the team covet explosiveness at a grade higher than Brisker meets, Cross is explosive in both speed and his downhill pursuit and closing burst against the run.
His knocks are on his decision-making and inconsistency in man coverage. But his aggressive mentality lends well to a moldable prospect that Kris Richard likely can do wonders with in one offseason. His work to turn Paulson Adebo into a Day 1 starting cornerback when he was a Round 3 pick who hadn’t played a down of football since 2019 is criminally underrated. Cross is someone to watch as an equally enticing prospect as Brisker.
Choice No. 3: Jalen Pitre, Baylor
(AP Photo/Jerry Larson, File)
Every once in a while, the Saints will stray from conference favorites and pick a prospect who just grades well on traits over school notoriety. Not often from the Big 12 – Kenny Stills is the most recent example. But there’s enough variety to consider a prospect that might not find trends but fits the desired skillset. Jalen Pitre rounds out this category of top safeties in Round 2 to watch. When I did a quite thorough analysis of the vision at safety by Allen and how that fit both free agency acquisitions and draft prospects, Pitre and Brisker were the two I zeroed in on.
Pitre projects a bit more at slot corner with twitch, short area quickness, and his motor that saw 975 snaps at slot since 2019 – and 16 at free safety comparatively. There’s a little more work to do with a selection like Pitre to round out the secondary and team vision, but Allen is the innovator on defense. Pitre offers more immediate aggressiveness than Brisker in areas notably lost with Malcolm Jenkins – forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, sacks, and tackles for loss. His 8 forced fumbles and 32.5 tackles for loss jumped out in my initial look at production numbers. New Orleans did attend Baylor’s pro day. That stuck out in tandem with their meeting with another safety from Baylor: J.T. Woods. There’s a strong chance they had conversations with Pitre that just weren’t reported. Their presence at the pro day indicates interest. And Pitre has the necessary aggressiveness I believe Allen most highly covets in his defensive players.
Should New Orleans hit on any of these prospects, it justifies the lost capital in the trade. If three positions of need are filled with high-quality players, it’s all but a top draft in recent seasons: and a massive feather in Allen’s cap in his first season.
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