Predicting what the College Football Playoff rankings will look like after Week 11
There were some big-time matchups across the college football world on Saturday that had an opportunity to shake up the playoff rankings heading into the middle of November, but again the chaos was stopped at the door.
The No. 3 Michigan Wolverines outlasted the No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions, while the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs blew the doors off of the No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels. Meanwhile, the No. 5 Washington Huskies pulled away from the No. 18 Utah Utes late for a victory at home. The No. 4 Florida State Seminoles staved off a Miami Hurricanes team late in the game as well.
After much of the nation was asleep, the No. 6 Oregon Ducks rolled over the USC Trojans to continue their strong run. In the end, it left us with a CFP top 25 that looks largely unchanged at the top, though several middling teams found a way to move up or move down based on a couple of upsets throughout the day.
The third set of playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday night. Here’s how we project they will look:
Ohio State Buckeyes
Barbara Perenic/Columbus Dispatch
Week 11 Result: 38-3 Win vs. Michigan State
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 1
Analysis: The Buckeyes continue to look like one of the best teams in the nation, and the connection between Kyle McCord and Marvin Harrison has really started to blossom. If they can continue to win, there is no doubt they’ll be in the playoff.
Georgia Bulldogs
Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 52-17 Win vs. No. 9 Ole Miss
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 2
Analysis: I was close to putting Georgia up in the No. 1 spot after its impressive win over No. 9 Ole Miss, but I think Ohio State did enough to keep the top spot. Georgia is starting to look like a really dangerous team once again, which should come as no surprise.
Michigan Wolverines
Michael Allio-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 24-15 Win vs. No. 10 Penn State
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 3
Analysis: Even without Jim Harbaugh on the sideline because of his suspension, Michigan took care of business against a Penn State team that increasingly looks much worse than people expected.
Florida State Seminoles
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 27-20 Win vs. Miami
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 4
Analysis: They certainly were tested, but Florida State came out on top against a Miami team that turned to its backup quarterback before the game started. If the Seminoles win the ACC title game, it’s hard to think they will miss out on a playoff spot.
Washington Huskies
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 35-28 Win vs. No. 18 Utah
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 5
Analysis: Involved in another shootout, Washington’s offense did enough on Saturday to beat a solid Utah team with a really good defense. Washington has a tough test against Oregon State before potentially getting back to the Pac-12 title game.
Oregon Ducks
Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 36-27 Win vs. USC
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 6
Analysis: It wasn’t the blowout many were expecting, but Oregon rolled over USC from start to finish and kept its identity as one of the hottest teams in the nation. Bo Nix took over as the leading candidate to win the Heisman Trophy. The Ducks have no reason not to remain as the top-ranked one-loss team.
Texas Longhorns
Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 29-26 Win vs. TCU
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 7
Analysis: This game was closer than it probably should have been, but the Longhorns found a way to pull it out in the end and stay inside the top 10 with a one-loss record. Texas has flirted with danger recently, so it feels fair to be skeptical of it going forward.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Week 11 Result: 49-21 Win vs. Kentucky
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 8
Analysis: If you needed any more proof Alabama is playing like one of the best teams in the nation, now you don’t. The Crimson Tide look incredibly dangerous now that Jalen Milroe is playing to the caliber he is.
Louisville Cardinals
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 31-24 Win vs. Virginia
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 11
Analysis: Louisville had the pleasure of playing on a weeknight, so its tight game against a terrible Virginia team was not as highly viewed as you would expect on a Saturday. At this point, we can pretty much book Louisville vs. Florida State in the ACC title game.
Oregon State Beavers
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 62-17 Win vs. Stanford
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 12
Analysis: The Beavers continue to look like one of the best teams in the Pac-12, and they could absolutely disrupt the conference race next week with a big game against the Washington Huskies.
Missouri Tigers
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 36-7 Win vs. No. 13 Tennessee
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 14
Ole Miss Rebels
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 52-17 Loss vs. No. 2 Georgia
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 9
Penn State Nittany Lions
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 24-15 Loss vs. No. 3 Michigan
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 10
Oklahoma Sooners
Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 59-20 Win vs. West Virginia
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 17
Tennessee Volunteers
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 36-7 Loss vs. No. 14 Missouri
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 13
LSU Tigers
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 52-35 Win vs. Florida
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 19
Kansas Jayhawks
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 16-13 Loss vs. Texas Tech
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 16
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: BYE
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 20
Arizona Wildcats
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 34-31 Win vs. Colorado
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 21
Utah Utes
Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 35-28 Loss vs. No. 5 Washington
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 18
Iowa Hawkeyes
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 22-0 Win vs. Rutgers
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 22
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 45-3 Loss vs. UCF
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 15
Kansas State Wildcats
Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 59-25 Win vs. Baylor
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 25
Tulane Green Wave
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 24-22 Win vs. Tulsa
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 23
North Carolina Tar Heels
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 Result: 47-45 2OT Win vs. Duke
Previous Playoff Ranking: No. 24
