NHL DFS: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Monday, March 25
Hopefully you enjoyed enough sports over the weekend to tide you over for Monday. In addition to a major dip in basketball action, there are only two NHL games on the slate. Nevertheless, NHL DFS contests abound! Here are my players to target, and to avoid, for your lineups.
GOALIE
Jordan Binnington, STL vs VGK ($29): If you believe in home/road splits for goalies, Binnington's DFS value is underappreciated based on his overall numbers. He's struggled on the road, but at home he has a 2.48 GAA and .922 save percentage. Vegas is just above average in both goals and shots on net per game. That means this matchup isn't great, but being at home puts it in Binnington's favor.
GOALIE TO AVOID
Cam Talbot, LOS at VAN ($35): Well, there are only four goalies in line to start Monday. Two I like for DFS purposes, one is Casey DeSmith, thrust into the starting role by Thatcher Demko's injury, and that just leaves Talbot. The recent performance of Talbot has been strong, but he's on the road against a team that has averaged 3.51 goals per contest. He's the one goalie you might consider rostering that I have reservations about.
CENTER
Robert Thomas, STL vs. VGK ($19): The Blues have a bottom-10 offense in goals per game, but the issue has been generating scoring around Thomas. St. Louis' number-one center has managed 73 points in 71 games even with all the struggles surrounding him. That includes 23 points with the extra man. The Golden Knights have a penalty kill just above average, but Logan Thompson will be in net, and he has a .905 save percentage.
CENTER TO AVOID
Chandler Stephenson, VGK at STL ($15): Jack Eichel is healthy, and a couple other Golden Knights are not, so these days Stephenson's wings on the second line are William Carrier and Anthony Mantha. The Blues have allowed a fair amount of shots, 32.4 on net per game in fact. However, Stephenson does not register a ton of shots. He's only managed 93 on target in 66 games. Are Carrier and Mantha going to cash in on his passes like Jonathan Marchessault or Mark Stone? I don't think so.
WING
Kevin Fiala, LOS at VAN ($23): The Kings' top power-play unit is their first line, Drew Doughty, and then Fiala on the point. He's potted 26 points with the extra man in 70 contests. The Canucks have a middling penalty kill, but Demko has played a role in that. DeSmith has an .899 save percentage, so he's not on Demko's level.
Jonathan Marchessault, VGK at STL ($23): Unlike Stephenson, Marchessault excels at getting pucks on opposing nets. Since joining the Golden Knights he's tallied at least 233 shots on goal in every full NHL season, and those 233 shots on net are from this season, which, you know, isn't over. The Blues allowing 32.4 shots on goal per game plays to Marchessault's strengths, and with only four teams in action there's a case to be made for trying to find a piece of every lineup. Though I like Binnington in net at his salary, by no means are the Blues a must-avoid matchup.
WINGS TO AVOID
Brock Boeser, VAN vs. LOS ($28): Boeser's 36 goals have come thanks to a 19.5 shooting percentage, and in terms of puck luck he's only scored one goal in his last nine game. More pertinent, he's tallied 15 of those goals with the extra man. The Kings have the league's best penalty kill, so if you are relying on a player in your lineup producing on the power play, you are in a precarious situation.
Trevor Moore, LOS at VAN ($19): Moore has set a career high with 26 goals this season, but that's with an 11.9 shooting percentage. That is actually higher than his career 9.4 number. In short, for Moore, it's quantity over quality. Well, the Canucks have only allowed 28.8 shots on net per game, sixth fewest in the NHL.
DEFENSE
Drew Doughty, LOS at VAN ($19): I mentioned Doughty earlier, and I might as well circle back to the Kings' power play. Doughty has averaged 3:11 a night with the extra man and has 17 power-play points. Monday, an average penalty kill and a below-average backup goalie will be the opposition, so I'd like to have Doughty in the mix.
Justin Faulk, STL vs. VGK ($19): Faulk has seven assists in his last seven games. He's also dealt with some pretty poor puck luck this season. He has a mere 1.8 shooting percentage. The time to improve that is rapidly dwindling, but this is a veteran defenseman with a career 5.9 shooting percentage. That doesn't mean he is guaranteed some regression toward the mean, but it does mean improved puck luck is worth betting on with only four teams in action.
DEFENSE TO AVOID
Quinn Hughes, VAN vs. LOS ($30): When I mentioned the Kings have the league's best penalty kill, if you know anything about Hughes you probably say this coming. He's one of the foremost power-play producers from the blue line. Hughes has tallied 31 of his 80 points with the extra man. In this matchup, though, his salary becomes a concern.
Noah Hanifin, VGK at STL ($19): Since being dealt to the Golden Knights, Hanifin has been…fine? He has four assists in eight games, though they have come in two two-assist outings. Those games were against the Devils and Red Wings, two teams in the bottom 10 in GAA. The Blues are in the middle of the pack in GAA, and that's with Binnington's road struggles. At home, it's a different story.
