NFL Week 18 best bets: One wager to make for every team (including the Bills)
Sadly, the end of the regular season is upon us. We’ve reached Week 18, which means 18 teams will take the field for the final time on Saturday or Sunday. It also means this is our last opportunity to bet on a full slate of NFL games until September. Sigh.
Fortunately, we’re going to get some great matchups in the playoffs, but before we look ahead to the postseason we have one last week of best bets. Below, you’ll find one wager to make for every team this weekend, beginning with Steelers-Ravens on Saturday afternoon and concluding with the very last game of the season: Bills-Dolphins for the AFC East title.
There are a lot of backups playing and starters resting this week so keep that in mind, but this slate offers some enticing betting opportunities. Here’s to a strong finish to the 2023 regular season.
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM:
Steelers at Ravens: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Steelers: George Pickens OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
No player has benefited more from having quarterback Mason Rudolph starting lineup than wide receiver George Pickens. Pickens is averaging 163 yards per game with Rudolph at quarterback and we don’t expect that to slow down this week against a Ravens defense minus Marlon Humphrey. – Curt Popejoy, Steelers Wire
Ravens: Tyler Huntley 50+ rushing yards (+210)
No line is available for Huntley’s rushing yards, so we have to venture into the alternate lines. He’s +210 to rush for at least 50 yards, which is actually a decent value. In nine career starts, including the playoffs, Huntley has rushed for at least 50 yards four times. He’s had games with 72-plus rushing yards twice and rushed for at least 41 yards in two other games where he wasn’t the starter. It’s a bit risky, but I like the value of Huntley’s alternate rushing line. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Texans at Colts: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Texans: Nico Collins OVER 5.5 receptions (+100)
Collins is the go-to receiver for C.J. Stroud with Tank Dell on the shelf, and he showed just how good he can be as a No. 1 target last week when he caught seven passes for 80 yards against the Titans. And that was in a blowout where Stroud only threw it 32 times, targeting Collins on eight of those passes. In what should be a closer game, expect Collins to get a lot of looks from Stroud. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Colts: Michael Pittman Jr. OVER 6.5 receptions (-155)
To end the regular season, we’re going with ol’ reliable here. Pittman has been the engine of the passing offense for the entire campaign, and the Colts will want to get him going early and often in this must-win matchup. Averaging 10 targets and a very nice 6.9 receptions per game, Pittman has surpassed this current line a total of 10 times this season. That includes a Week 2 game against the Texans when he recorded eight receptions. Meanwhile, the Texans have allowed a wide receiver to surpass 6.5 receptions in a game eight times this season and in three of their last four games. – Kevin Hickey, Colts Wire
Browns at Bengals: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Browns: Browns total points OVER 17.5 (+150)
The only games that the Browns failed to score over 18 points in were the ones where rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson started. Even in the games where P.J. Walker played, who has been analytically and statistically the worst quarterback in 2023, the Browns have mustered over 18 points. Even though the Browns are resting the majority of their starters and are starting Jeff Driskel fresh off of the Cardinals’ practice squad, mustering a few scoring drives is well within reach against the Bengals on Sunday. – Cory Kinnan, Browns Wire
Bengals: Bengals to win by 7-12 points (+350)
While it probably sounds like a fantastic example of coachspeak, Bengals coach Zac Taylor has said the team will push to win this one “by any means necessary” to end the season. To that point, Ja’Marr Chase has said he’ll play through a shoulder injury, too. There’s some good reasoning, too – this squad doesn’t want to be the first Bengals team to go 0-6 in the AFC North since the realignment in 2002. The Bengals will run out all of their healthy starters, while the Browns play backups on a pseudo bye week, so barring a dramatic swerve from the talk and mid-week actions, the Bengals should pull away and close the season with a winning record. – Chris Roling, Bengals Wire
Vikings at Lions: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Vikings: Nick Mullens OVER 263.5 passing yards (-115)
The Vikings are a team that is desperate for a victory this Sunday against the Lions, as the only chance they have of making the playoffs is with a win and at least three other teams to lose. That led to head coach Kevin O’Connell reverting back to Nick Mullens as the starting quarterback. While he makes too many mistakes for the Vikings to consistently winning games, Mullens puts up stats that are good for fantasy football. In the first meeting with the Lions, Mullens became the second quarterback in team history (Warren Moon) to throw for 400+ yards and four interceptions in the same game. With the running game nearly non-existent, Mullens should easily hit his passing yards prop. – Tyler Forness, Vikings Wire
Lions: Highest-scoring quarter: 1st (+525)
This is a tough game in general to wager on. Lions head coach Dan Campbell has strongly indicated Detroit’s starters will play, but he’s not actually quantified for how long they’ll stay in the game. It’s easy to envision a scenario where both teams come out with guns blazing and post some serious early points before settling into a contest where Detroit just tries to not get anyone injured and the Vikings realize their faint playoff dream is done. That would front-load the scoring, even though, statistically speaking, the second quarter would be the most prolific. The lucrative payout on the first-quarter gamble makes it the best bet. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire
Jaguars at Titans: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Jaguars: Evan Engram longest reception over 17.5 yards (-120)
If there’s one thing consistently true of the Jaguars offense this season it’s that Engram is going to see a lot of targets. Last week, he became the eighth tight end in NFL history to notch 100 receptions in a season. While he’s averaging only 8.5 yards per catch, there’s just too many opportunities for yards after catch to pick Engram to finish without at least one big play. He’s had a reception for at least 19 yards in 10 games this season and should have plenty of chances for a chunk play Sunday against the Titans. – Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire
Titans: Jaguars win AND over 31.5 total points (-110)
The Titans looked checked out last week and are unlikely to have quarterback Will Levis, which will only make their offense even worse. Adding to that, the Titans are extremely short-handed defensively.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars must win this game to guarantee their playoff berth, as a loss could result in them missing the playoffs entirely. And, with how bad Tennessee’s defense has played, the Jags could hit this point total by themselves.
Even if Jacksonville doesn’t, the Titans should be able to muster up enough points to make up the difference. – Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire
Jets at Patriots: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Falcons at Saints: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Falcons: Falcons OVER 19.5 total points scored (-115)
Atlanta’s offense hasn’t lived up to the hype for much of the season, however, I expect to see the best version possible against New Orleans in Week 18. Not only is the division still up for grabs, but head coach Arthur Smith’s job is potentially on the line. The Falcons have scored at least 20 points in four out of their last five games against the Saints. I expect the team to score over 19.5 points on Sunday in New Orleans. – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire
Saints: Chris Olave OVER 71.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Falcons couldn’t slow down Olave last time they faced off, and he’s put up some of his highest receiving totals in recent weeks while playing through injuries, posting 100-plus yards in three of his last five games. He’s in line for another big game especially if Alvin Kamara can’t play. – John Sigler, Saints Wire
Buccaneers at Panthers: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Buccaneers: Bucs winning margin by 7-12 (+400)
This may seem low for a team like the 2-14 Carolina Panthers, but the Bucs recently struggled with the New Orleans Saints after a big four-game win streak and played the Panthers within three points last time around. Expect the Bucs to win this matchup to clinch the division and go to the playoffs, but there should be plenty of motivation from a Panthers team with nothing else to play for to serve as spoiler, so they could keep it close. – River Wells, Bucs Wire
Panthers: Chuba Hubbard anytime touchdown (+125)
The Panthers haven’t reached the end zone often this season. But when they have, it’s usually Hubbard standing tall for six. Carolina’s offense has scored just seven touchdowns dating back to Week 12, with the third-year back accounting for four of them. Two of those came in the Week 13 matchup between these teams, where Hubbard recorded a season-high 104 rushing yards on 25 carries. – Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire
Bears at Packers: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Bears: Justin Fields anytime touchdown (+145)
Fields has scored a rushing touchdown in three of his last four games, including each of the last two. Fields could very well be playing in his final game with the Bears, and he’ll be looking to wrap things up with a win over the hated Packers. There will be opportunities for Fields in the passing game, where his favorite target DJ Moore will be waiting, but he’s always a threat to score with his legs. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire
Packers: Jayden Reed anytime touchdown (+190)
The rookie receiver has a team-high 10 total touchdowns this season. Reed’s been on fire lately, scoring at least one touchdown in six of the last seven games. He’s battling through a chest injury but is expecting to play Sunday. The Packers need him to be a go-to player in the scoring area against a Bears defense that is playing very well to end the season. – Zach Kruse, Packers Wire
Broncos at Raiders: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Broncos: Denver moneyline (+120)
Fewer stats, more feelings: Denver lost to Las Vegas 17-16 in Week 1 and just one more win this season would have put them in the playoff mix going into the final week of the season. Sean Payton is desperate to end the year with a winning record at 9-8, and Broncos players are eager to snap a seven-game losing streak to the Raiders. This feels like the kind of game that Denver will be highly motivated to win, even with the playoffs out of reach. – Jon Heath, Broncos Wire
Raiders: Raiders UNDER 21.5 points (-130)
If the Raiders are going to win this game, it’s going to be because of their defense. Antonio Pierce has transformed that unit into one of the NFL’s top-scoring defenses. Meanwhile, the offense has had major issues in most games this season. The Raiders have scored 22 or more points in a game just twice this season and getting there in Week 18 seems unlikely. Expect a hard-fought game in Las Vegas with the Raiders only scoring 17 or so points on Sunday. – Marcus Mosher, Raiders Wire
Eagles at Giants: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Eagles: Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (-105)
Hurts hasn’t gone consecutive games without a rushing touchdown since the middle of last season. That streak includes the playoffs, too. He didn’t score last week against the Cardinals but he did get into the end zone against the Giants two weeks ago. Having scored nine touchdowns in his last eight games, getting him at -105 feels like a bargain. We just need someone to go down at the 1-yard line to initiate the unstoppable Tush Push. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Giants: Giants OVER 19.5 total points (+100)
The Giants may average just 14.9 points per game, third-worst in the NFL, but they put up 25 against the Eagles just two weeks ago and have exceeded 20 points in three of their last four games. With Tyrod Taylor under center, they’re taking more shots down the field and letting him air it out. Defensively, they are among the NFL’s best at creating turnovers while the Eagles give the ball away plenty. All of those factors combined with Philly’s defense looking like Swiss cheese in the second half of the season make this a relatively safe bet. – Dan Benton, Giants Wire
Seahawks at Cardinals: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Seahawks: Seattle moneyline (-150)
They’ll still need help from the Bears to make the playoffs even if they do take care of Arizona, but the Seahawks are fighting for their playoff lives this week. If that’s not motivation enough, Seattle’s issues with tackling last week against the Steelers should be enough to shame this team into not getting upset again in their potential last game of the year. – Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire
Cardinals: Ladder OVER 48 (-110) with OVER alternate total 49.5 (+100)
Four of the Cardinals’ seven games since Kyler Murray’s return have passed the 50-point mark. In a 35-31 win last week, Philly’s offense scored 24 points in only 20 minutes of offensive possession. The Seahawks gave up 30 points and over 200 rushing yards to the Steelers last week. Their run defense, one of the best when the Cardinals faced them in Week 7, is now one of the worst in the league. The Cardinals have surpassed 200 rushing yards in two of their last three games. Points should be plentiful. – Jess Root, Cards Wire
Chiefs at Chargers: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Chiefs: Kansas City to score first (+100)
The Chiefs will have their backups in on offense, which means that Patrick Mahomes’ regular season is officially over. Veteran quarterback Blaine Gabbert will take over as Kansas City’s signal caller, and while he isn’t expected to put up a crazy statline, the former University of Missouri product should be able to get points on the board early. Part of this wager hinges on the Chiefs’ ability to keep Chargers quarterback Easton Stick at bay, which seems likely given Kansas City’s defensive dominance this season. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire
Chargers: Chiefs +3.5 (-110)
With the No. 3 seed locked up, the Chiefs will rest most, if not, all of their starters. Even then, Kansas City still has enough talent on their team to take down a hampered Chargers team on the road. That also includes Los Angeles’ offense, which has shown to be incompetent with Easton Stick under center and a handful of weapons missing, including Keenan Allen. – Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire
Rams at 49ers: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Rams: OVER 7.5 total 1st-quarter points (+100)
It’s hard to imagine this being a high-scoring game with backups expected to play a good portion of the game for both teams, but one way to bet on Rams-49ers is by playing the first quarter. At the very least, some starters should play a handful of series, including Puka Nacua and Demarcus Robinson for the Rams. And with how good both Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan are at scripting plays to open a game, we could get a touchdown or two in the first quarter. Plus, there’s always the possibility of a pick-six by Carson Wentz or Sam Darnold as they find their footing. These teams combine for an average of 11.6 first-quarter points per game, by the way. – Cameron DaSilva, Rams Wire
49ers: Score ends in a tie (+6600)
This game has big-time preseason vibes, but Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold may make enough plays that it becomes more back-and-forth than just a rugby scrum at midfield where the teams are just trading possessions to just try and get through the game. Honestly, there’s not much worth betting on in this one so why not just lay the money on a tie and root for football’s funniest outcome instead of hoping some combination of Sam Darnold, Ray-Ray McCloud and Jordan Mason lead you to the promised land of whatever thing you actually wagered on. – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire
Cowboys at Commanders: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb UNDER 93.5 receiving yards (-120)
If everything goes according to plan, CeeDee Lamb will be on the sideline celebrating the incoming NFC East championship when the second half kicks off. Dallas must win this game, and it would behoove them to dominate a first half that allows them to get their key players some rest ahead of the gauntlet that faces them in the playoffs. Getting a big lead by halftime likely includes a heavy dose of Lamb, so this is a close call, but go with the under. – K.D. Drummond, Cowboys Wire
Commanders: Washington UNDER 16.5 points (-110)
The Commanders moved the ball well against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day until they collapsed in the fourth quarter. Washington has lost seven straight games, and the Cowboys enter Sunday’s game with everything to play for. I would expect Dallas to jump on the Commanders early and take a double-digit lead into halftime. Washington may score late, but this feels more like a 27-13 type of finish, making the under a good bet. – Bryan Manning, Commanders Wire
Bills at Dolphins: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Bills: Josh Allen anytime touchdown (-135)
The Bills are on a four-game winning streak. They have not done everything right in the time frame, especially on offense. But there is one thing that has gone according to plan: Allen rushing in a touchdown. Bet on in (pun intended). He has eight rushing touchdowns over the last five games for Buffalo. The “tush push” of the Philadelphia Eagles has been brought to western New York and it’s paying off. Now let it do the same for you. – Nick Wojton, Bills Wire
Dolphins: De’Von Achane anytime touchdown (+100)
While the Dolphins may have struggled mightily against the Baltimore Ravens last week, Achane was one of the lone bright spots, as he rushed for 107 yards on 7.6 yards per attempt and brought in four receptions for 30 yards and a touchdown as a pass-catcher. The rookie from Texas A&M has scored nine total touchdowns in the 10 games that he’s been active, so if he’s going to get a strong split of the touches out of the backfield, he’ll likely find his way into the end zone. And, with Raheem Mostert still battling back from an injury, that seems like it’s the case. – Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire
