NFL odds: Patriots are most popular win-total over bet as bettors trust Bill Belichick

Of all the teams to get excited about this offseason, the New England Patriots don't seem like the obvious choice.

The New York Jets added Aaron Rodgers, the Philadelphia Eagles had a great 2022 season and a fantastic draft and the Detroit Lions have a lot of buzz after a strong finish last season. Other teams made big moves to get their fanbase excited, too.

The Patriots, however, didn't exactly win the offseason.

Bettors don't care. The most-bet win total at BetMGM, in terms of number of bets, is the over on the Patriots at 7.5 wins.

That's a bit of a surprise, considering how good the AFC East appears to be.

Patriots have a tough schedule

One stat that bettors are not worried about is the Patriots' strength of schedule. According to Sharp Football Analysis, which uses win totals to project strength of schedule, New England has the toughest schedule in the NFL this season.

That's what happens when six of your games come against the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. It's a brutal division. But the Patriots are pretty strong for a team that is projected to finish in last place.

New England's path to a winning record — or at least 8-9 and hitting the over — starts with its defense. It ranked third in the NFL in Football Outsiders' DVOA last season. New England continues to invest draft picks in the defense, and given Bill Belichick's track record on that side of the ball, it should be very good again.

Bettors likely are taking the over because they're anticipating a much better offense. New England's offense was a mess last season with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge running it. Those failed head coaches had no offensive coordinator experience — Patricia's history was on the defensive side — and it showed. The Patriots hired Bill O'Brien to run the offense this season. O'Brien's time as Houston Texans head coach ended poorly, but he is a huge upgrade at offensive coordinator. Perhaps he can help Mac Jones get back to his 2021 level, when he had a promising rookie season.

And even with the mess on offense last season, the Patriots were still 8-9.

Patriots still competitive under Bill Belichick

Belichick hasn't posted great records since Tom Brady left, but he's still getting the most out of his rosters.

All the Patriots need to do to hit over 7.5 is avoid double-digit losses. The last time Belichick lost 10 or more games was 2000. New England did finish 7-9 in the weird 2020 season, with Cam Newton providing almost nothing in the passing game as the post-Brady era began. But New England finished 10-7 the year after.

The Patriots haven't been great without Brady, but they haven't fallen far either, which is due to Belichick. The roster isn't great, especially on offense, but New England has been in playoff contention deep into each of the last three seasons. Even if the Patriots have become a relatively bland team, they're a tough out every week.

Bettors don't need the Patriots to be great this season. They just need them to hover around .500. It has been a long time since a Belichick team didn't cross that bar.