Week 3 Rankings

Updated 9/22/2013 at 12:00 PM ET

Anyone who’s been at this for longer than a minute knows that fantasy football fates are often, if not always, decided by injury. Invariably, there will be a stretch of the season that’s more about “who has the most warm competent bodies” than “who has the most talent.” It’s just that, typically, it doesn’t get here until about Week 9 or 10, not Week 3. Alas, here we are with the fantasy football ocean already littered with “questionable” or “game-time decision” icebergs.

Among the walking wounded are Ray Rice, Steven Jackson (out), Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Eddie Lacy (out), Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush and Roddy White, just to name a few. That means “hard-decision time” is here less than two weeks after the season’s first Sunday.

Rice is shaping up as the toughest call of all. “Day to day” with a left hip flexor strain, Rice isn’t going to practice this week, and will likely come down to a Sunday morning decision. If he’s active, he’ll be an extremely dicey play, and almost certainly on a snap count. If he sits? Things actually get far less complicated. Rice, bench. Bernard Pierce, RB2.

We’ve been talking Pierce up as one of the league’s top handcuffs since the middle of last season, but Sunday would be the first chance he’s had to really stretch his legs outside of last Week 17, where the Ravens rested their starters after two series. Although Pierce is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry, that number remains an extremely healthy 4.64 when expanded to include all 175 of his career totes. Film study reveals a player who hasn’t necessarily struggled this season, but has simply run into brick walls. The Broncos zeroed in on the box after Baltimore lost deep threat Jacoby Jones in Week 1, while the Browns have one of the league’s most talented front sevens. The yardage is going to come.

Pierce has uncommon vision for a second-year back, and doesn’t waste steps after taking the rock, hitting the hole extremely quickly. He almost always gets what’s blocked, and oftentimes more. He’s a power runner who makes a point of not leaving yards on the field. In the Texans, he’s facing a run defense allowing 99.5 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry. They’re respectable numbers until you realize the Texans have only dealt with the Chargers’ muddled backfield and Tennessee’s predictable run-heavy attack. Pierce probably isn’t going to go off for five yards per carry if he gets the start, but something like 21/90/1 is well within reach. That would make him an RB2 in any week, and the best bet of this week’s army of fill-ins.

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Week 3 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: Peyton Manning has the best matchup, but the problem is, it’s almost too good. By the time the middle of the third quarter rolls around, the Broncos should be taking the air out of the ball in the game that has all the hallmarks of a 31-10 final. Ergo, Aaron Rodgers gets the top spot despite a much tougher opponent. … Owners are predictably worried after Colin Kaepernick went into the Seattle thunderdome and posted a 0:4 TD:turnover ratio, but Jim Harbaugh isn’t. "I'm not disappointed in the way Colin played, at all," Harbaugh said Sunday. "He did what he could." We agree. It’s not like Kaepernick played well, but his nightmare night had far more to do with just how well the Seahawks played than anything else. Kaep was similarly disappointing in Seattle last Week 16, but followed it up with an easy, breezy beatdown of the Cardinals in Week 17. Now back home in San Francisco, he’s going to find life much easier against the Colts’ far-from-imposing defense.

The Lions look like the same old baffling Lions of 2012, but Matthew Stafford is going to have a field day against the first defense to allow over 1,000 yards in its first two games since 1967. … Michael Vick is the No. 3 fantasy quarterback through the first two games of the Chip Kelly era. … Russell Wilson has just two total touchdowns, but it’s had everything to do with the Seahawks’ schedule (1ET road opener for a West Coast team against a tough Panthers defense, San Francisco) and little to do with his play. Expect Sunday to serve as a big-time corrective. The Jaguars are going to be like prey in the Colosseum. … Robert Griffin III’s 649 yards passing look good on paper, but a staggering 489 of them have come in the second half of games in which the Redskins were not competitive. RGIII has only 25 yards rushing after averaging 54.3 per game in 2012. He’s just a borderline QB1 until he proves he’s all the way back. … It’s not like the 49ers are a good matchup for Andrew Luck, but they’re not prohibitive. The Niners are just 13th in yards allowed (675), and permitted 333 yards through the air in Week 1 against the Packers at home.

Eli Manning leads the league with seven turnovers through two weeks, while the Panthers are tied for ninth in takeaways with three. … Tom Brady: QB2 for Week 3? As crazy as it sounds, no one who saw last Thursday’s game would think it’s crazy. Although Brady is unlikely to be plagued by another biblical plague of drops, it’s not as if the lightbulb is suddenly going to come on for painfully raw rookies Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson. Facing a run-erasing defense and the specter of Darrelle Revis covering Julian Edelman, it’s going to be another long week for one of the greatest players in league history, even if Rob Gronkowski (back) makes his long-awaited return (which isn’t likely). Brady will probably be back near the top of the quarterback rankings sooner than you think, but Week 3 is not the time.

Your No. 4 fantasy quarterback through two weeks? Brees? Ryan? Romo? Try Philip Rivers. It’s true, but it’s also true that 68.2 percent of his yards and four of his seven scores came against the Eagles’ swinging-gate defense. There’s no doubt that new coach Mike McCoy has added a little shine to his previously worn-down quarterback, but Rivers isn’t going to suddenly be a diamond, particularly without Malcom Floyd for Week 3. Maybe Rivers isn’t done, after all, but he’s also not “back.” … In some ways, Jay Cutler’s Week 2 was just like the seemingly endless number of inept disasters he suffered under Lovie Smith. There was the fumble six after he held onto the ball for too long, the tipped-ball interception he threw on first-and-goal from the one-yard line and forced attempt to Brandon Marshall that Vikings S Harrison Smith saw coming from a mile away. But make no mistake: This is not the same Cutler. With the Bears playing a more competent brand of offense under new coach Marc Trestman, Cutler’s 68.1 completion percentage is 10 points higher than it was last season, while his 7.39 YPA is nearly half a yard better. He has five touchdowns after throwing just 19 in all of 2012. Cutler is a gunslinger. That means there’s always going to be the occasional ill-advised decision. But after years of being set up to fail in mind-numbing schemes behind sieve-like offensive lines, Cutler is finally in a position to succeed, and he looks ready to take advantage of it.

In theory, hot-starter Alex Smith has a dream matchup in the Eagles’ 30th ranked defense. But if there’s one player we don’t expect to go off in what will almost inevitably be a sloppily-played Thursday nighter, it’s he of the 5.7 YPA and 5.5 aDOT. Smith has attempted exactly two passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air. No matter the opponent, he’s not a compelling QB2. … Hamstrung by a disastrous supporting cast, Ben Roethlisberger might find himself in the 20s more often than not this season. … Terrelle Pryor was efficient, but far from electric against the Jags’ undermanned defense Sunday. How he fares against the Broncos’ far more formidable unit Monday will be a telling bellwether for his future performance. … It’s going to be a rough day for each of E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith in their head-to-head showdown. … Long may you run, Chad Henne, long may you run.

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Week 3 Running Backs

RB Notes: Coming off a pair of tough matchups, Marshawn Lynch is averaging just 3.1 yards through his first 45 carries. Expect him to rectify that in a big way against a Jaguars Run D permitting a league-worst 5.7 yards per tote. … No. 5 might seem aggressive Forte, but not so much when you consider the league-wide injury situation, and the fact that his 15 catches lead all running backs. He’s tied with teammate Brandon Marshall for sixth in the league in receptions. Even if Forte finds the sledding tough on the ground, he’s going to make up for it in the air. Every-down backs with legit pass-catching prowess have very few off weeks. … The matchup couldn’t be more inviting for Charles, but his nagging quad injury and the typically ragged nature of Thursday Night Football keep him at “just” No. 6.

Arian Foster is supposed to be splitting carries with Ben Tate, but instead he’s out-touched his talented backup 44-23 and played 73 more snaps. So much for being “eased in.” The presence of Tate is holding Foster back from weekly top-three status, but he’s still very much a weekly RB1. … Averaging 6.1 yards per carry, Alfred Morris isn’t part of the problem in Washington. Sooner or later, the Redskins’ lethal rushing attack will get back in sync, and Morris will be one of the league’s safest RB1s. … C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson turned back the clock to 2012 in Sunday’s win, with Spiller averaging 6.45 yards on his 20 touches, Jackson 3.93 on his 16. Timeshare, tough matchup and all, Spiller is simply too talented to rank outside the top 10.

By now you know that Jim Irsay wasn’t bluffing. He made one of the most shocking trades in years on Wednesday, parking Trent Richardson in Colts blue for the price of a 2014 first-rounder. Although the move should pay fantasy dividends for T-Rich in the long run — he’s departed Cleveland’s sinking ship for one of the league’s most talented offenses — Sunday figures to be a rough christening against a 49ers defense allowing just 3.6 yards per carry (or 0.1 more than T-Rich’s career average). The volume Richardson relies on for fantasy value might not be there as learns a new playbook and squares off with one of the league’s most talented Run Ds. This will almost certainly be his lowest rank of the season. … Knowshon Moreno at No. 17. It’s double-take worthy, but locked into an every-down role, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and facing one of the league’s least-talented defenses, it’s the right spot for a player going into a game that could feature 30 minutes of garbage time.

DeAngelo Williams hasn’t dazzled this season, but is sixth in carries and fifth in yards. He’s a surprisingly safe play against one of the league’s weakest linebacker/safety combinations. … Lamar Miller at No. 19 is admittedly aggressive, but he’ll be making his 2013 home debut against a run defense that isn’t nearly as good as its numbers (73.5 yards per game, 3.1 yards per carry) suggest, and is reeling from the losses of Sean Weatherspoon and Kroy Biermann. It would be surprising if Miller didn’t out-touch Daniel Thomas 2-to-1, and appear improved for the second consecutive week. … Rashard Mendenhall’s (toe) health is something to monitor. Injuries could throw the ranks into chaos by the weekend. … Daryl Richardson (98 yards on 30 carries) is losing steam fast. Don’t be surprised if Isaiah Pead gets a 6-8 touch test drive after playing 30-of-77 snaps in Week 2. … Joique Bell will vault to high-end RB2 status against the Redskins’ pathetic defense if Reggie Bush (knee) can’t give it a go.

James Starks is getting a start after dicing the Redskins for 132 yards on just 20 carries (6.6 YPC) last weekend, but don’t be fooled: Starks is a 4.0 YPC player at most, and will likely struggle against the Bengals’ elite front seven. … I don’t know if David Wilson will be unleashed this weekend. What I do know is that the Giants have a pathetic 73 yards rushing through two games, and need to get their electric second-year back going. He’s a high-risk, high-reward RB3. … Giovani Bernard’s role should only continue to grow, but without proven volume, he’s a touchdown-dependent FLEX option. … Jacquizz Rodgers has averaged 3.6 yards on his 164 carry carries, and is squaring off with an elite Dolphins defensive line. You can do better. … On the off chance Maurice Jones-Drew (ankle) is active, he’s going to get erased by Seattle’s defense. Fill-in Jordan Todman is a pure desperation option. … Skip the Browns backfield this weekend. … The same is true of Pittsburgh’s.

Week 3 Wide Receivers

WR Notes: Calvin Johnson scored his first and second touchdowns in Sunday’s loss. He didn’t notch his second score until Week 10 last season. … Brandon Marshall has caught 15 of his first 20 targets (75 percent). He caught 60.8 percent of his 194 targets in 2012. … Larry Fitzgerald’s (hamstring) health remains a very big question mark. Unlikely to practice before Friday, Fitz could tumble out of the top 10 for the second consecutive week. … Jordy Nelson has more touchdowns than any receiver in the league since the beginning of the 2011 season. He’s an every-week WR1.

DeSean Jackson: WR1? We’re almost there. Mostly a maddening WR3 under Andy Reid, D-Jax has cruised to a 16/297/2 line, and back-to-back 100-yard games. This, after he totaled just two 100-yard games in each of 2011 and 2012. Chip Kelly isn’t going to let his No. 1 receiver lose targets to the likes of Jason Avant and Brent Celek, like Reid insisted on. D-Jax is one solid game away from every-week WR1 status. … Hakeem Nicks is already 28.5 percent of the way to his 2012 yardage total. Predictably, he’s already picked up an injury (dislocated middle finger), but that’s much preferable to a lower-body ailment. Nicks is creeping back toward low-end WR1 status.

The weekly target delineation is going to be hard to predict in loaded Denver, but there should be enough looks for Wes Welker to make him a WR2. He’ll have little trouble getting open against the Raiders. … Torrey Smith is a player back on the rise after besting shutdown Browns CB Joe Haden for a 7/85 day in Week 2. This, after Haden held Mike Wallace to all of one catch in Week 1. Running a more diversified route tree as the unquestioned focal point of the Ravens’ passing attack, Smith is looking like he’ll be much more consistent this season after two years of week-to-week unpredictability. … Julian Edelman’s reward for his 13-catch Week 2? A possible date with Darrelle Revis. Edelman can’t be benched in PPR leagues, but he’s not a particularly compelling WR2 in standard formats. … Antonio Brown wasn’t happy — at all — about being targeted only (?) nine times in Monday’s loss. Perhaps the Steelers will make like the Dolphins did when Mike Wallace complained and target Brown early and often his next time out. … Eric Decker atoned for his “ridiculous” Week 1 on Sunday, but is likely to remain the most inconsistent of Denver’s burgeoning “Big Four.”

With Anquan Boldin, it’s pretty simple: He’s not always going to catch 13 passes, he’s not always going to catch one. He should be able to meet somewhere in the middle, and is a strong bet for a weekly 6/80 as Colin Kaepernick’s No. 2 target in the passing game. … If the Dolphins keep using Mike Wallace like they did in Week 2, he’s not going to stay stuck at No. 25 much longer. … Life on the James Jones rollercoaster: Same as it ever was. … Instead of finding reasons to bench Josh Gordon in his season debut, view him as what he is: A WR3 with WR1 upside. … We’ve actually found footage of the exact moment the Colts realized they needed to give T.Y. Hilton a bigger role. … Roddy White appears destined for another week on the decoy beat. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 until further notice. … On the surface, Cecil Shorts’ eight-catch, 93-yard Week 2 was the game fantasy owners were looking for. Half of his catches came deep into garbage time, however. Now squaring off with Richard Sherman, the wrong place at the wrong time receiver is best left benched.

Week 3 Tight Ends

TE Notes: Jimmy Graham: That didn’t take long. … Keep an eye on Vernon Davis’ (hamstring) health, but he’s hinted he’ll be ready to rock against the Colts. … Tony Gonzalez is off to a slow start, but the Dolphins — who’ve let up big games to Jordan Cameron and Coby Fleener — should be just what he needs to get going. … Julius Thomas is one or two more big games away from establishing himself as a top-three tight end. The Week 3 matchup is right in the Raiders. … Questions abound for Cameron — he’ll be without Brandon Weeden and dealing with the return of Josh Gordon — but tied with Graham for the tight end receptions lead, he’s getting a Vikings defense that got whipped by Martellus Bennett in Week 2. … Jared Cook’s 7/141/2 Week 1 will likely end up his best game of the season, but he’s not going to have many more weeks like he did Sunday (1/10). He’s locked in as a TE1.

The dream of Jermichael Finley’s monster upside died long ago, but he’s locked in as one of the league’s steadier TE1s. … Martellus Bennett “messed up” his shoulder while messing up the Vikings, but played through the injury and is good to go for Week 3. … Brandon Myers’ 19 targets are third amongst tight ends. Somewhat inexplicably, his momentum from 2012 appears to be carrying over. … Antonio Gates romped against the Eagles’ soft defense in Week 3, but he’ll face a stiffer test this Sunday in Tennessee. For now, he’s just a plug-and-play back-end TE1. … Looking a little extra spry this season, Owen Daniels has three scores through two games. He’s a safe, but low upside, TE1. … At least through the first two weeks, Kyle Rudolph is looking as touchdown dependent as ever.

Rob Gronkowski (back) may believe he’s made “big time” progress since last week, but Week 4 remains his most likely return date. His ranking will be updated day to day. … Dwayne Allen’s season-ending hip injury has Coby Fleener back on the TE1 radar, though it’s in a rough matchup against the 49ers. Coming off an inefficient rookie year and rocky preseason, make Fleener prove it in the box scores before committing to him as a starter, but he needs to be 100 percent owned. … It took Tyler Eifert only two games to establish himself as a bigger playmaker than Jermaine Gresham, but with Gresham still drawing more targets, Eifert is just a TE2 stash. He’s a weekly dice roll. … Intrigue, “Charles Clay” is thy middle name, but it’s worth noting that 67 of his 163 yards came on one catch, while he’s drawn only 13 targets. Clay is worth a flier if you’re desperate at tight end, but it’s far too early to be considering him a weekly option.

Week 3 Kickers

Week 3 Defense/Special Teams