Newcastle are battling Rotherham for the second worst Premiership season ever
No side has lost every single game in a Premiership season since London Welsh back in 2014-15, but Newcastle are on course to make unwanted history with just two games to go.
Sixteen defeats, a points difference of -327 and only one try bonus point all season. The team in ninth, Gloucester, are 22 points clear of Newcastle. Grim reading for the Falcons faithful.
There are several reasons behind their struggles this season. No club operates on a smaller budget and it shows in the level of their senior talent, certainly compared to visiting Bath next Friday. The previous head coach, Alex Codling, left in mid-January.
The squad has plenty of young prospects - with 19-year-old wing Ben Redshaw a good example - but a number who have shown real promise are departing at the end of the season, including Guy Pepper and Louie Johnson. At the other end of the scale, Newcastle have veterans who, in the words of consultant director of rugby Steve Diamond, have “not performed for a year or two” and are also either off to new clubs or have nowhere lined up. “There will be some harder-core players arriving,” Diamond added, suggesting this group is not quite tough enough for his liking.
Combine all that together and it’s little wonder that Newcastle are 22 points adrift, or more than four bonus-point wins. So, how do they compare to fellow Premiership strugglers of past seasons?
First, given the Premiership has spent most of its existence being made up of 12 teams, it’s worth generating an average return for the Falcons if they were playing a 22-game season, using their statistics so far after 16 matches.
Newcastle have currently scored 222 points, conceded 549, scored 25 tries and conceded 81 in 16 matches. On average, that leaves them on track to finish this 18-game season with 250 points scored, 618 conceded, 28 tries scored and 91 conceded.
Should you expect those exact figures to become reality? Not exactly. The recent 85-14 defeat to Bristol was desperate but in the previous two matches Newcastle lost to Leicester by six points and Exeter by nine. Last Sunday at home to Sale the game was finely poised at 60 minutes with Newcastle trailing by seven before Sale, with a stronger bench, pulled away. Newcastle might get close to Bath and Gloucester, or they might get obliterated again. Or they might even win.
If Newcastle’s record so far was to be spread out over a full 22-game season, then they would finish with 305 points scored and 755 conceded - meaning a points difference of -450 compared to the current -327 - with 34 tries scored and 111 tries conceded.
Now compare that projection with some of the worst-performing teams (only two wins or less) who have historically finished last in the league, going back to the first 12-team Premiership season in 1996-97.
There are parallels with Newcastle’s projection over 22 games and Rotherham’s winless season in 2003-04, until you get to the number of tries conceded. With a squad featuring David Strettle and Lee Blackett, the closest Rotherham came to winning that season was a 10-15 defeat at home to London Irish.
Not that it will come as any consolation to Newcastle should they finish the season without a victory, but there is no chance of this campaign ever being as bad as London Welsh’s nine years ago. A certified disaster from the very first game when they were defeated 52-0 by Exeter, a squad blended with Championship players, Premiership lifers and surprising internationals - Piri Weepu, Olly Barkley - ended up conceding an average of 46.4 points per game. Losing 78-7 at Saracens was the lowest point but of greater interest is that the closest London Welsh came in a fixture was a 13-24 defeat at home to Harlequins. It was a colossal mess.
So, this is both a very bad season for Newcastle and not the worst of all time.
