NCAA picks: Conference championship week arrives; 8 teams should still have shot at CFP

Nov. 30—There are eight teams in college football that should still have a shot at making the College Football Playoff if the committee is looking at this correctly.

The top four teams — Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State — are obvious. I will give you an explanation for why each of the next four has a chance to make the CFP.

First and foremost, No. 5 Oregon. If the Ducks beat the Huskies in the Pac-12 championship they should be an automatic lock.

Next in line is eighth-ranked Alabama. If the Crimson Tide can beat Georgia in the SEC title game, they should be in. No, I don't care what happens with Texas. Even if the Longhorns win, Alabama should leap them with a win over the Bulldogs. Beating the best team in the country in a conference championship avenges a regular season loss to me. And Texas' loss to two-loss Oklahoma is enough for me to keep them out in this scenario.

But, No. 7 Texas has a path as well. UT needs Oregon to lose to Washington and for No. 4 Florida State to lose to No. 14 Louisville. That way, Texas can jump a two-loss Oregon team and replace FSU after losing to a two-loss Cardinals group. This scenario still requires Alabama to lose as well.

The team with the smallest odds of making it in is sixth-ranked Ohio State.

The Buckeyes aren't playing in a conference game and that almost eliminates their odds entirely. But, if No. 2 Michigan wins against No. 16 Iowa, that will help OSU. Then, the Buckeyes would need Georgia, Washington and Florida State to lose, thus, opening the door for three new teams. Texas also must lose, because a conference championship win would put the Longhorns over OSU.

Oregon would have avenged its only loss as well as Alabama. Then Ohio State's resume would be lined up with Georgia's and the CFP would have to decide which it liked more.

With that being said, here are my picks for the conference championship games including a ranked team and exactly how I see it all playing out:

FRIDAY

New Mexico State (10-3) vs. No. 24 Liberty (12-0): The big week starts with a 6 p.m. Conference USA championship. The Flames beat the Aggies fairly easily in the regular season. New Mexico State is on an eight-game winning streak, though. Favored by 11 points right now, I'll take Liberty by 10.

No. 5 Oregon (11-1) vs. No. 3 Washington (12-0): This will be a good game. The first meeting between these Pac-12 teams saw Washington win by a field goal. For some reason, the Ducks are favored by 10. I'll take Washington to win another close one, by four this time. UPSET.

SATURDAY

No. 18 Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. No. 7 Texas (11-1): Saturday morning begins with the Big 12 championship game. The Longhorns will win here. OSU has a shot, but it'll all depend on defense and its rush attack with Ollie Gordon. Texas is being given 15.5 points in this one. I'll take the Cowboys to keep it closer in an 8-point game.

No. 1 Georgia (12-0) vs. No. 8 Alabama (11-1): Alabama has a real shot to win this one. Georgia has already been tested multiple times this year and this is the best opponent it has faced. The Bulldogs are 5.5-point favorites. Take the Crimson Tide to cover because they're going to pull off the upset by 3 points. BIG GAME.

Southern Methodist (10-2) vs. No. 22 Tulane (11-1): Tulane's lone loss is against No. 11 Ole Miss. The Green Wave won't lose here. But, like they've had happen many times this year, the game will be close. Tulane by a field goal.

No. 2 Michigan (12-0) vs. No. 16 Iowa (10-2): Iowa has a really tough time scoring. Michigan will be the best overall team it has faced. Good luck Hawkeyes. Michigan is getting 22 points and that's exactly how many they win by. 28-6 in favor of the Wolverines. LOCK PICK.

No. 14 Louisville (10-2) vs. No. 4 Florida State (12-0): Playing without starting quarterback Jordan Travis will be tough. But the Seminoles are a good enough overall team to get by a Louisville team that has two embarrassing losses this year. The Seminoles are 1.5-points favorites and they escape with a 24-23 win here.

My final rankings

With this scenario I would rank the teams as follows:

1. Michigan; 2. Washington; 3. Florida State; 4. Alabama.

RECORDS

Overall: 205-52; My picks: 20-19; Big game: 7-6; Upset: 2-11; Lock pick: 11-2.