NASCAR odds this week: Best bet advice, winner picks and predictions and who to fade at Darlington

And now we begin the Nostalgia Leg of the NASCAR schedule, beginning with the very first "superspeedway" in stock-car history, Darlington.

They wanted a big track in the south, and some 40 years after Indy redefined "big track," Darlington was carved into the South Carolina dirt, with some leeway given to a frog pond. Long story, and we're not here for that.

North Wilkesboro is next for the All Star Race, followed by Charlotte for what some of us still call the "World" 600.

But this three-week run begins with a real beauty, so lets throw her some winners as well as all the charm we can muster.

TICKETS: Rolex 24 tickets on sale for 2025 kickoff event at Daytona International Speedway

NASCAR Darlington odds

• +400: Kyle Larson

• +475: Denny Hamlin

• +650: Martin Truex Jr.

• +750: Tyler Reddick

• +800: William Byron

• +1000: Christopher Bell

• +1400: Ross Chastain

• +1500: Chase Elliott

• +1600: Kyle Busch

• +1750: Brad Keselowski

• +2250: Ty Gibbs, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher

• +2500: Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace

• +3000: Alex Bowman

• +4000: Erik Jones, Noah Gragson

• +10000: Josh Berry, Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe

• +15000: Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

• +20000: Austin Dillon, Austin Cindric

• +25000: Carson Hocevar, John Hunter Nemechek

• +50000: Corey LaJoie, Ryan Preece, Todd Gilliland, Harrison Burton

• +100000: Zane Smith, Daniel Hemric, Justin Haleyc

• +250000: Derek Kraus, Kaz Grala

NASCAR best bet: Our favorite wagers on the board for Darlington

Ryan: I'm looking at the Group 4 winner. Logano has the best average finish of any driver in the field over the last six races at 9.3. He's up against Buescher (seventh, 12.2), Wallace (12th, 15) and Bowman (34th, 23) and, even though he's the favorite among the four, he's at +230. I won't, but I could just repeat Logano for a lot of these categories, including a +105 for a top 10. This is Logano drawing a line in the sand at one of his best tracks and I think this one is easy money.

Ken: Give me RFK Racing for the win at +900. Gibbs and Hendrick are the obvious favorites, the 23XI is next for some reason, followed by RFK. This is pure hunch. The Ford Motor Company came within 2 inches of winning last week, which might be a signal. Will it be Kez of Buescher? Let's assume Buescher as the racing gods offer some payback.

Top 10

Ryan: So, I won't repeat with Logano, but how about this: In the four events at Darlington in the Gen-7 car, McDowell has crashed in two of them and finished sixth and seventh in the other two. If he's kept it off the wrecker, he's brought it home comfortably in the top 10 and at over 5-to-1 (+525), that's a risk I'm willing to take.

Ken: I'm liking Preece at +1400 because there's a lot of chatter around Stewart-Haas Racing and its future as a four-car, three-car, or maybe even a two-car team. There are few things faster than a driver racing for his contractual future.

Top 5

Ryan: Not going way off the board here, but Reddick is still worth more than a double-up at +125 and has three top-3 finishes in his last four starts at Darlington. Along with Larson and Hamlin, I think he's the safest bet here and the odds are probably a little bit better than they rightfully should be.

Ken: Blaney is at +375, and Blaney is way overdue for a good Sunday. I hate the low-paying options, but I also lose a lot. Something has to give eventually, right? Yeah, right.

NASCAR drivers to fade at Darlington

Ryan: I know he won here in the fall of 2022. I know two of his career wins are at Darlington. I know he'd be a feel-good story coming off of an injury that has kept him out the last two races. But I'm out on Jones this weekend. Three of his last five finishes here are 25th or worse and while I'm sure he'll be a popular sleeper pick, the Legacy Motor Club camp just hasn't proven it to me yet.

Ken: Truex hasn't finished better than 18th at Darlington in the Next Gen era. Fluke? Maybe, but why mess with a trend. I'd avoid him until Charlotte.

Who will win the NASCAR Goodyear 400 at Darlington?

Ryan: About the only thing keeping Hamlin from winning every week are untimely yellow flags and pit strategy that doesn't quite work out. I know at +475 the payout isn't great, but this is one of his best tracks and with the speed he has right now, I'm not betting against him.

Ken: I really, really, really want to go with Reddick, but of all his great recent finishes at the Lady in Black, there's no W. So I'm gonna pencil him in for another second or third. You know who wins after sucking eggs for a week or three? Byron. Give me Billy the Kid at +800.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR odds, picks and predictions: Best bets for Darlington on Sunday