MLB's seven most surprising teams: Legit playoff contenders or just a mirage?
It’s not yet time to raise any flags – or count anybody out.
Yet after this weekend’s series, almost every Major League Baseball team will have a quarter of its schedule behind it. And some continue defying gravity.
Some of these surprise teams may stick around all summer, while others are merely treading water until regression pulls them under the surface.
Who has staying power?
With three wild-card berths at stake in each league, it doesn’t take much more than a .500 record to stay in the conversation past Labor Day. But May brings not just flowers but mirages, thanks in part to weak early schedules or overperformance. With that, let’s explore who looks legitimate – and who looks suspect – among this gaggle of perceived overachievers:
Diamondbacks: Legit
Oh, they’re capable of making this look bad, particularly with a rotation filled with question marks after Merrill Kelly and the practically peerless Zac Gallen. But Arizona was a chic pick to upset the expected playoff hierarchy, and the season’s first quarter certainly encouraged that.
They have a healthy offense – fourth in the NL in OPS yet 14th in strikeouts. That on-base acumen is buttressed by aggressive baserunning (31 steals), with Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll swiping 10 in 12 tries while posting an .876 OPS.
They’ve also got eight of their 13 games against the Dodgers out of the way – winning five of them – while a gaggle of NL wild-card hopefuls have broken slow from the gate. They’ll stay in it.
Red Sox: Suspect
Heckuva run by Boston, winning eight in a row and scoring at least six runs in seven of those. Alex Verdugo, with a .380 OBP, .880 OPS and three walk-off hits, is laying the foundation for an MVP-caliber season.
Yet the vital signs on the mound are a little too alarming in such an unrelenting division.
The expected rotation shortfalls have unfolded about as expected, with a 6.01 ERA and the third-fewest innings pitched in the AL. Corey Kluber, the 37-year-old Opening Day starter, has posted a 6.29 ERA and completed six innings in just one start. While Chris Sale appears to be rounding into form after several injury-disrupted seasons – with three outstanding starts in his last four – rookie Brayan Bello has been inconsistent and James Paxton can’t be counted on as a savior.
Somebody has to finish fifth in the AL East, and there’s no shame in that. It might not even be Boston. But even with a Jarren Duran breakout (and another in the offing from Triston Casas), too many loud noises will be coming from opponents’ bats.
Brewers: Legit
Location isn’t everything, but it helps. And the Brewers’ steady-as-she goes ethos has served them very well in the middling NL Central, where the division is once again up for grabs.
While the Josh Hader trade upset their ecosystem in a 2022 season that fell one win shy of a wild-card berth, the bullpen has reloaded impressively, and starters have gone deep enough to keep Devin Williams, Joel Payamps and Co. to the lightest workload in the majors. The same can’t be said for their Central rivals, with the division favorite Cardinals’ ability to dig out of a 13-25 hole greatly compromised by rotation woes that show few signs of improving.
Meanwhile, catcher William Contreras ranks second in the NL in catching would-be basestealers while producing a 116 adjusted OPS. Shortstop Willy Adames is still just 27 and, with seven home runs already under his belt, looks primed for an All-Star year.
Pirates: Suspect
Their rollicking start still has them at 21-17 and atop the division. This could also be the moment Wile E. Coyote is suspended in midair after following the Road Runner off a cliff.
Perhaps the descent has begun, with nine losses in 10 games, including six in a row to AL playoff clubs Tampa Bay and Toronto. Might have been most disconcerting losing two of three at home to Colorado, the sort of series the Pirates must win.
Instead, the rotation gets a little iffy after Mitch Keller, although breakout candidate Vince Velasquez has resumed throwing after an elbow scare. Sure, the club’s +25 run differential through April 30 is a larger sample than the -38 in the nine games since May 1. But let’s just say the burden of proving they’re a contender remains.
Orioles: Legit
You can plausibly claim that their 24-13 start is a small sample, or point to their 92-68 mark since Adley Rutschman’s May 2022 debut as a more appropriate marker. We’ll lean toward the latter.
Beyond their second-year catcher who will soon be an All-Star and very much looks like a franchise player, the Orioles’ best asset is likely their depth. The starting pitching is once again good enough, but a bullpen that was its bulwark last year is now even deeper thanks to the emergence of Yennier Cano, who hasn’t given up a run in 18 ⅔ innings and whose WHIP – 0.16 – looks like a typo.
Beyond dynamic shortstop Jorge Mateo, significant upside remains from an offensive group still finding its stride. Meanwhile, baseball’s best farm system allows the club to trot out blue-chip prospects based on upcoming matchups before sending some back to Class AAA Norfolk – a squad that has a full rotation of both prospects and seasoned arms at the ready.
Angels: Suspect
Until proven otherwise, of course. But we’re still far from starting the “Is this the year Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani reach the playoffs?” convo. Why? Well, 12 of their 20 wins have come against the A’s, Royals, Cardinals and Nationals. The possible season-ending loss of rookie catcher Logan O’Hoppe has left a crucial position bereft.
And while the offseason signings of Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe (team-leading 10 home runs) and encouraging resurgence of Anthony Rendon (116 adjusted OPS) have lengthened the lineup, starting pitchers not named Ohtani have combined for a 5.69 ERA.
A seven-game trip to Cleveland and Baltimore will match the Angels with potential wild-card peers, followed by nine games against the Twins, Red Sox and Marlins. Perhaps then the discourse can include 2023 dreams, and not just 2024 destinations for Ohtani.
Marlins: Legit
Hey, sometimes you have to take a leap of faith.
We’re pretty sure the Marlins won’t cause any sleepless nights for first-place Atlanta. And could be devoured quite quickly by the slow-starting behemoths from Philly and New York lurking within one game. But shouts to the Marlins for rolling the dice by trading ultra-reliable starter Pablo Lopez for former batting champ Luis Arraez, in a somewhat counterintuitive move to balance a gulf between their arms and their bats.
Arraez has been unreal – a slash line of .398/.457/.488 – but he’s not able to keep the Marlins out of the NL OPS basement, with a .676 team mark. The club has already been outscored by 54 runs.
But Eury Perez, perhaps baseball’s top pitching prospect and barely 20 years old, will become the youngest starter in franchise history when he debuts Friday at home against Cincinnati. Conceivably, he could join forces with reigning Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara (who’s had a couple rough outings so far) and post-hype lefty Jesus Luzardo for a potentially daunting 1-2-3.
OK, so you need to squint a little. But sometimes, you have to save a little chalk for the baselines.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB standings, most surprising teams: Are these clubs legit in 2023?
