Mississippi State football vs Southern Miss: Score prediction vs Frank Gore Jr.
STARKVILLE — Even with the taste of a 51-10 defeat at Texas A&M still fresh, Mississippi State football linebacker Jett Johnson was well-aware of the task ahead with Southern Miss.
“Frank Gore Jr. is a heck of a back,” Johnson said postgame in College Station, Texas. “He’ll be a load.”
The Bulldogs (4-6, 1-6 SEC) welcome the Golden Eagles (3-7, 2-5 Sun Belt) to Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday (11 a.m., SEC Network+) for the first meeting between the in-state rivals since 2019.
And as Johnson noted, a key to victory – and to keep bowl hopes alive – is slowing down Gore. The junior running back has 970 rushing yards with nine touchdowns. He also has 133 receiving yards with a pair of scores through the air.
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Gore ranks 23rd nationally with 97 rushing yards per game and is seventh in the nation with 196 carries. He’s the root of USM’s offense. For a Mississippi State defense allowing 143 rushing yards per game, slowing him down could be the difference between a win and an upset.
Who will start at QB for Southern Miss?
Despite Gore’s effort, USM has one of the worst scoring offenses in the Sun Belt. The Golden Eagles average 24.1 points per game – though the average is up to 32 across the last three games.
Uncertainty at quarterback remains as coach Will Hall wouldn’t say this week whether Billy Wiles or Ethan Crawford will start. Both quarterbacks have appeared in the previous two games, with USM picking up wins.
Oftentimes, a matchup between an SEC school and a Group of Five school is determined at the line. If MSU’s defense can generate pressure, it shouldn’t matter who is under center.
Mississippi State could have Will Rogers back
Before he was fired Monday, former MSU coach Zach Arnett said he was hopeful that senior quarterback Will Rogers would be cleared to play against Southern Miss.
If that’s the case, it would be a major boost for a struggling MSU offense. In the four games without Rogers, the Bulldogs are averaging 6.5 points. With him, the number goes up to 28.
Also, a return for Rogers would spark a sibling matchup. His brother, Luke Rogers, is a freshman offensive lineman for USM.
Can Zavion Thomas, Lideatrick Griffin create another spark?
It seems like a distant memory, but Mississippi State had a lead against Texas A&M thanks to an opening kickoff return from Zavion Thomas. With teams going away from Lideatrick Griffin, who led the nation with 32.26 yards per return last year, Thomas has gotten chances and finally broke one.
Only 26.42% of Southern Miss’ kickoffs go for touchbacks. Thomas or Griffin should get a chance.
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Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss score prediction
Mississippi State 24, Southern Miss 14: If Rogers does play, MSU could win by a wider margin. But with the possibility of him being rusty, I think the game could be tight until late. Mississippi State should come out on top.
Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.
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This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State score prediction vs USM: College football Week 12
