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Michigan State vs. North Carolina in March Madness: Prediction for NCAA second round

chris solari, detroit free press
·4 min read
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CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Michigan State basketball appears to have found something in its recent big man rotation. The Spartans’ guards also showed Mississippi State how smothering they can be defensively.

Whether it’s enough to stop Armando Bacot, RJ Davis and 1-seed North Carolina remains to be seen.

Ninth-seeded MSU must face the Tar Heels in their own backyard in Friday’s second round of the 2024 NCAA tournament at Spectrum Center.

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo signals players against Mississippi State during the first half of NCAA tournament West Region first round at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. on Thursday, March 21, 2024.
Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo signals players against Mississippi State during the first half of NCAA tournament West Region first round at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. on Thursday, March 21, 2024.

“They've got an inside-outside threat, and they've got other guys that can shoot the ball and can play. That's why they're who they are. That's why they're a No. 1 seed,” MSU coach Tom Izzo said Friday. “But I do think we match up with them decently, as far as size and positions.”

Here is a look at the two heavyweight programs as they prepare to meet with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.

Fast facts

Matchup: 9-seed Michigan State (20-14) vs. 1-seed North Carolina (28-7), West region second round.

Tipoff: 5:30 p.m. Saturday; Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina

TV/radio: CBS, WJR-AM (760).

Line: Tar Heels by 3½.

At stake: Winner advances to Sweet 16 in Los Angeles on Thursday vs. Alabama or Grand Canyon.

Scouting report

North Carolina's Armando Bacot reacts after a dunk against Michigan during the first half on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
North Carolina's Armando Bacot reacts after a dunk against Michigan during the first half on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022, in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Stopping Armando Bacot: The Tar Heels' third-team All-American is a load inside at 6-foot-11 and 240 pounds, averaging 14.3 points and 10.3 rebounds. He posted 10 points and 15 rebounds in the Tar Heels’ 90-62 win over 16-seed Wagner on Thursday.

At center, the Spartans have been rotating 6-11 Carson Cooper (as the starter) with 6-9 senior Mady Sissoko and 6-9 sophomore Jaxon Kohler. That trio held All-SEC first-teamer Tolu Smith III to just nine points (on 3-for-5 shooting) and two rebounds while forcing four turnovers in the Spartans’ 69-51 win Thursday over 8-seed Misssissippi State.

“(Assistant coach Doug) Wojcik said, 'You're not out there for a long time. So the moment you're there, you gotta give everything you got,” said Sissoko, who grabbed 16 rebounds in his past two games. “So that's why everybody trying to do for sure.”

Davis shining: The inside-out combination of Bacot and 6-foot senior RJ Davis led UNC to the ACC regular-season championship. Davis' 21.4 points per game leads the Tar Heels, and he is coming off a 22-point performance against Wagner.

Davis said he didn’t really have a comparison to MSU for any of UNC’s opponents this season.

“I think they play their own brand of basketball,” Davis said of MSU. “I think every team is different. But they had a really good schedule … (and) I know how well of a coach Tom Izzo is and how he gets his guys going.”

MSU senior guard Tyson Walker, who leads the Spartans with 18.2 points a game and scored 19 against the Bulldogs on Thursday, once was teammates in New York with Davis.

“I've known RJ for a really long time. We've had some good games against each other,” Walker said. “So just to be able to play at this level against each other, there's going to be a lot of people watching, our senior years. It's going to be big time. Hopefully we both can play well.”

Other matchups: Wojcik said Walker also played against 6-5 guard Cormac Ryan (11.3 points a game), who had 23 points for Notre Dame last season in a win over MSU and had 13 for the Irish in a loss against the Spartans in 2020.

Michigan State forward Malik Hall (25), guard A.J. Hoggard (11) and Mississippi State forward Cameron Matthews (4) battle for a rebound during the first half of NCAA tournament West Region first round at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. on Thursday, March 21, 2024.
Michigan State forward Malik Hall (25), guard A.J. Hoggard (11) and Mississippi State forward Cameron Matthews (4) battle for a rebound during the first half of NCAA tournament West Region first round at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. on Thursday, March 21, 2024.

MSU coach Tom Izzo also pointed to a matchup between MSU's 6-7 forward Malik Hall (12.5 points, 5.6 rebounds per game) and 6-7 forward Harrison Ingram (12.1 points, 8.9 rebounds) as another pivotal battle down low.

"It's not always the ones you look at. It's kind of guys who are difference makers," Izzo said of the Hall-Ingram matchup. "And I think that will be it."

Prediction

Much like they did against all the other upper echelon programs they’ve faced this season —Duke, Arizona, Purdue (twice) and Illinois — the Spartans stay right in the mix. But foul trouble down low allows Bacot to dominate in the paint late and sends the Tar Heels on to Los Angeles for next week’s Sweet 16. The pick: North Carolina 72, MSU 66

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

Subscribe to the "Spartan Speak" podcast for new episodes weekly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or anywhere you listen to podcasts. And catch all of our podcasts and daily voice briefing at freep.com/podcasts.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

Subscribe to the "Spartan Speak" podcast for new episodes weekly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or anywhere you listen to podcasts. And catch all of our podcasts and daily voice briefing at freep.com/podcasts.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State vs. UNC prediction: March Madness, NCAA pick is in