Michigan-Michigan State basketball game has lower stakes, but still matters for both teams
Michigan and Michigan State basketball will square off on Saturday night in the second and likely final game of their season series for 2023-24.
There's not the usual buzz surrounding the second iteration of the rivalry matchup this year, largely because it lacks the same stakes for both programs as it has in recent years. In the last decade, Michigan-MSU basketball games were one of the most important games in the Big Ten schedule, as both teams found themselves near the top of the conference standings with aspirations for a deep March run.
This year, those aspirations only exist in East Lansing. The Spartans, despite not living up to their lofty preseason rank, are firmly entrenched in the top half of the Big Ten, tied with Northwestern in fourth place with an 8-6 conference record entering Saturday, and are projected safely in the 68-team NCAA tournament field.
On the other side, U-M's championship aspirations are all but over, barring a magical run in the Big Ten tournament, with an 8-17 record and 3-11 record in conference, which includes back-to-back losses by 20 and 29 points entering Saturday.
CARLOS MONARREZ: Warde Manuel's ruse is insulting. He should fire Juwan Howard and fix Michigan basketball
In the first game this season, Michigan held a lead for most of the first half and entered the Breslin Center locker rooms with a 35-33 lead, but MSU scored the final five points of the first half to cut the deficit to one basket. MSU continued the blitz in the second half and went on a 16-1 run and never relinquished the lead. MSU made 13 of its first 17 shots to start the second half and outscored Michigan, 34-6 in the paint, to complete the 81-62 trouncing. The 19-point margin of victory was MSU's largest in the rivalry since 2006 (Michigan last won by 19 or more in 2021).
While it lacks the usual juice, there is still plenty on the lines for both teams Saturday at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor. An MSU win would help its bid for a double-bye in the Big Ten tournament and add another win to their NCAA tournament resumé. For Michigan, a win could help Juwan Howard breathe a bit more comfortably in the head coach's chair, and even potentially plant a seed of hope for a conference tournament run.
[ MUST LISTEN: Make "Hail Yes!" your go-to Michigan Wolverines podcast, available anywhere you listen to podcasts (Apple, Spotify) ]
Why the game is important for Michigan State
Tom Izzo has developed a lot of famous quips during his decades as head coach, and one of those messages that pop up each year is his desire to beat his in-state rival. But Michigan State hasn't been winning at Michigan in recent years, which surely gets under the Hall of Fame coach's skin.
Michigan State hasn't won at Michigan since Feb. 24, 2019, dropping four straight games from 2020-23 at the Crisler Center. Though U-M had a down year last season, missing the NCAA tournament, the Wolverines beat MSU, 84-72, to protect home court, adding a blemish to MSU's tournament resume last season. The last time MSU won in Ann Arbor, the team was led by Cassius Winston, who dropped 27 points and eight assists, and Kenny Goins, who had 16. It was the first of three wins over Michigan that season for the last MSU team to reach the Final Four.
That was the last win on the road by either team in this series. Between 2020-2023, each team playing at home won the game with both teams sporting a 4-4 record in the in-state rivalry prior to this season. The last time Michigan won at Breslin Center was in 2018.
WINS, NOT STATS: Michigan State basketball's Tyson Walker fine with low scoring, 'just focusing on winning'
As stated before, Michigan State is currently in a tie with Northwestern for fourth place in the Big Ten with an 8-6 record, a game ahead of fifth place Nebraska at 7-7. The Spartans already lost on the road to Northwestern, but welcome the Wildcats to Breslin Center on senior day on March 6 with a chance to even the season series. A win on Saturday would briefly move MSU into fourth place alone, heading into Northwestern's matchup Sunday with Indiana. A double bye in the tournament would mean an extra day of rest and one less win required to win the tournament.
The simplest thing to do to avoid the tiebreaker headache is to continue to stack conference wins, including a very winnable game against Michigan on Saturday. MSU will have to overcome its road woes — 2-5 on the road in conference, beat Penn State on the road last game — to do that.
A win over Michigan wouldn't be a jaw-dropping note on MSU's tournament resume, but a loss would put them closer to bubble conversations once again. Michigan is currently rated as the No. 104 team on KenPom and 114 in the NCAA's NET rankings, which would be MSU's worst loss of the season based on those rankings. MSU's worst loss of the season right now is Minnesota according to KenPom (No. 69) and NET (No. 80). MSU is still likely in the field with a loss, but a win would make it easier.
Why the game is important for Michigan
Michigan is on pace for its worst basketball season since 2007-08, when the Wolverines went 10-22 in John Beilein's first season. Howard, Beilein's successor, has been facing plenty of questions about whether he's capable of maintaining a successful program after missing the tournament last year and following it up with Michigan's worst campaign in over 15 years.
TRENDING: Michigan basketball hoping for health, help from past greats as Michigan State visits
Athletic director Warde Manuel stuck by Howard earlier this week in a video conference with reporters saying, "It would be fair to say I have not really thought about any changes in our men’s basketball program at this time," and that he will continue to support the head coach. It was the second vote of confidence given by Michigan's athletic director, who had a similar message during Sherrone Moore's introductory press conference as head football coach.
A win over Michigan State wouldn't save Michigan's season, but it could be helpful for Howard to keep his job for another season if possible. Howard has never lost a home game against Michigan State as head coach, and holds a 4-5 record overall against the Spartans. A win could also be a spark for a late-season run that includes five wins in five days in the Big Ten tournament to secure one of the most unlikely tournament bids the conference has seen.
A loss, however, is the more likely outcome — especially for a team licking their wounds after consecutive beatings this week. A regular loss to MSU would be another disappointing note and the end of Howard's streak over the rival, while a blowout defeat could spell be the push Manuel needs to decide to go another major coaching search this year and replace Howard.
At this point, Michigan is playing for pride in the rivalry, and to potentially save the coach's job if that decision is on the table after the season. Even if the stakes for this matchup are lower than the past, there's still plenty on the line in this rivalry, as there always is in each battle between the Spartans and Wolverines.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan-Michigan State basketball game holds weight despite lower stakes
