Advertisement

Mets could have playoffs in sight if they persevere through brutal early schedule, but reprieve isn't coming yet

It's been an eventful, challenging, intriguing season for the Mets so far.

They lost their ace, Kodai Senga, to a long-term injury in spring training, and have also dealt with an injury to depth starter Tylor Megill.

In what has proven to be an aberration, they started the season 0-5 before going 14-9 over their next 23 games to wind up at .500 roughly a month into the year.

Along the way, they lost catcher Francisco Alvarez -- a huge part of the team behind the plate and at the plate -- for six-to-eight weeks due to a freak thumb injury he suffered while stumbling around the first base bag because of a botched play by the opposition.

The Mets are also now missing two key members of their so-far-elite bullpen -- Brooks Raley and Drew Smith.

As New York has dug itself out of that early 0-5 hole, dealt with turmoil, and showed a determination that has resulted in a knack for comeback wins, there has been one constant -- the tough schedule.

So far, the Mets have played primarily teams that are expected to be contenders this season.

Here's who they've faced over the first 28 games:

Brewers (3 games)
Tigers (3)
Reds (3)
Braves (3)
Royals (3)
Pirates (3)
Dodgers (3)
Giants (3)
Cardinals (3)
Cubs (1)

Of the above 10 teams, all but perhaps the Pirates and Cardinals seem to have staying power.

The Cubs and Brewers are atop the NL Central (with the Reds right behind), and the Tigers and Royals are contending in the AL Central. Meanwhile, the Braves and Dodgers are ... the Braves and Dodgers -- two of the best teams in the sport. And the Mets took series from both of them.

Apr 24, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) high fives right fielder Tyrone Tyler (15) after the game against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park.

The good news for the Mets is that this stretch against mostly strong teams will end.

The bad news is that there is still another month to go in this early-season gauntlet.

Here are the Mets' next 32 games (through June 2), featuring mostly expected contenders:

Cubs (3 games)
Rays (3)
Cardinals (3)
Braves (3)
Phillies (4)
Marlins (3)
Guardians (3)
Giants (3)
Dodgers (3)
Diamondbacks (4)

Let's take a second and compare the Mets' early schedule to that of the team right above them in the NL East (the Phillies).

As they have raced out to a 19-11 start, Philadelphia has beaten the hell out of two of the worst teams in the league -- the Colorado Rockies, and the Chicago White Sox (who are on pace to be perhaps the worst team ever) -- going 6-0 against them. The Phillies are also in the middle of a series against the lowly Los Angeles Angels.

This is not to discredit what the Phils have done. Rather, it's to point out what the Mets have waiting for them if they can get through the next month with their heads above water -- or even right at the water line.

If the Mets can manage to escape this 32-game stretch intact, the combination of what their roster should look like on June 3 and what their schedule will be from that point on should allow them to do some serious damage.

What we've seen from the Mets so far this season is a team with a rotation that has been good enough (but needs a jolt), a bullpen that has been elite (but is now missing two important members), and an offense that has ebbed and flowed.

By the time the Mets reach June 3, with the tough part of their schedule behind them, Senga should be back atop the rotation, providing the aforementioned jolt.

New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga (34) delivers a pitch against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Citi Field
New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga (34) delivers a pitch against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Citi Field / Gregory Fisher - USA TODAY Sports

Megill and David Peterson (both in the middle of rehab assignments), should be healthy a decent amount of time before then and be valuable depth options.

And prospect Christian Scott, who has been dominating for Triple-A Syracuse, could be up some point between now and then.

Raley and Smith are expected back soon, which should help the Mets navigate the coming tough stretch and the easier schedule beyond it.

Then there's Alvarez, who could conceivably be back in the first week of June, but whose return might not come until the middle or end of it.

As noted above, though, this Mets team has been solid and not wilted -- and that's due to not only the players, but the leadership of new manager Carlos Mendoza and president of baseball operations David Stearns.

The Mets just need to keep that going for another month, until the reprieve.

To be clear, there will be lots of tough series over the last four months of the season. But they are done with their toughest West Coast trip, and will have a whopping 41 games against these teams:

Marlins (10)
Nationals (13)
Rockies (6)
White Sox (3)
Athletics (3)
Angels (3)
Astros (3)

The Astros could possibly rebound, but they've been putrid so far. And the Nats could keep overperforming, but seem likelier to stumble.

In any event, the above seven teams have a combined record of 66-136 entering play on April 30.

That's what the Mets have waiting for them if they can persevere for the next month like they have for the first month. And if they accomplish that, a legitimate shot at the playoffs should be within reach.