Use It or Lose It

Last week I discussed why it’s important to track usage rate, efficiency and pace for your fantasy team. As it turns out, there are not a lot of columns out there to discuss this topic and I had some great feedback from some of you guys, so we’re going to turn this into a weekly series!

The main purpose of this column is going to be all about opportunity. We’ll be focusing more on usage rate, minutes and pace while mixing in some interesting stats along the way. I’ll probably need a couple weeks to work out the kinks and stuff, so just bear with me here. For now, it’s just going to be guys that have eye-catching numbers.

The season is just starting out, so most of these numbers will be for the entire season. As the year goes along, we'll track some guys over their last 10 games, a month, or whatever. The top half of the column is going to be for the stars and the bottom will be for the guys non-fantasy people might not know much about.

Follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for a lot of stats, Vines, analysis and commentary while you're watching the games. You can also find all of these stats on NBA.com/stats.

Stars

Kobe Bryant - He has a ridiculous 37.7 usage rate this season. The Black Mamba is taking a league-high 23.7 attempts from the field while he’s ranking just 114th in efficiency (out of 121 qualifiers). He also ranks sixth in free throw attempts, but is only making 76.5 percent of those. Bryant hasn’t shot below 81 percent in any season since 1998, so that low percentage is obviously a fluke.

On the surface, it’s pretty easy to figure out why Kobe has such a high usage: No help. His shots have come unassisted 67.9 percent of the time and he is dribbling a ton. In fact, 19.0 percent of his shots have come after he takes seven or more dribbles and an additional 26.1 percent of his shots have come with 3-6 dribbles. Here’s a look at how he’s performed on those shots:

This is actually kind of upside-down from an efficiency standpoint. Usually, 0-1 dribbles are when players are more open, but not Mamba. A 50.0 effective field goal percentage on seven or more dribbles is pretty awesome.

It’s pretty clear his usage rate isn’t going anywhere and his teammates will probably help him a little more. Bryant does have 6.8 assist opportunities per game, but he’s just at 3.0 dimes per game. He'll probably see his dimes rise a bit closer to 4.0.

From a daily fantasy standpoint, you’re going to want to use Kobe in favorable matchups just because his usage is going to be sky high. Looking at the schedule, there really aren’t many great matchups until Houston on Nov. 19. Perhaps you can buy low after a couple games this week.

James Harden - Everyone knew Harden’s usage was on the rise with Jeremy Lin going to Los Angeles and Chandler Parsons traveling north to Dallas. He had a solid usage rate of 27.6 last season, but it’s risen to an elite 32.1 in 2014-15.

Considering he ranks just 11th in field goal attempts per game at 17.0, it’s all the more impressive to see him so high. Of course, his 9.9 free throw makes per game are 2.3 higher than anyone else — craziness. If you thought Kobe’s dribble numbers were nuts, check these out:

It’s hard to believe a guy can take 69.7 percent of his shots with three or more dribbles, but he’s been more effective on those shots than on his 1-2 dribble plays.

On top of the usage rate, his passing numbers are phenomenal at 7.1 dimes per game. That number isn’t even the impressive part and it's more about how he's turned his passes into a profit on the stat sheet. While he is one of 10 players with more than 7.0 dimes, he’s not even really passing the ball. Harden ranks just 48th in passes per game, so his passes aren't wasted.

Bottom line: The Beard is a stat factory.

DeMarcus Cousins - It’s The Year of Boogie. He leads all big men in usage rate at 32.1. Of course, this is not a surprise since he did it last year with a 32.6 usage.

His field goal shot total and turnovers are down, so the improvement on free throw shooting has a lot to do with his usage remaining in the same neighborhood as last season. DMC is at a James Harden-like 9.7 attempts per game while making 77.9 percent of those -- both career high.

As far as his scoring goes, he’s putting the ball on the floor more and he’s also getting more assisted buckets, which is a mild surprise with Isaiah Thomas in Phoenix. Cousins’ frequency on one-dribble shots increased 11.6 percent while he’s also shot 10.3 percent better on those attempts. I don’t have a stat to back this up, but players seem to get fouled more when they put the ball on the floor even if it’s just one time.

As mentioned, his assisted field goals have increased to 63.0 percent this year from 53.3 percent in 2013-14. He’s actually developed some nice rapport with Darren Collison with DC dropping a dime to DMC 2.71 times per game. Rudy Gay is second in that department at 1.43. Last season, IT dime’d DMC just 1.64 times and Gay was at 0.67 times per game.

It’s pretty clear he’s going to be very similar in production and his minutes are actually down this season due to foul trouble. He could actually get better and he's going to be the top-scoring DFS guy a heck of a lot this season.

Dirk Nowitzki - His usage rate is up to 28.9 on the season in seven games, which is almost two percentage points higher than last season. On the other hand, he’s seen his minutes fall from 32.9 last season to 28.5 this year. Nowitzki is also performing much better in his minutes with a higher effective field goal percentage and a better rebounding rate, so the drop in minutes is hard to notice.

The addition of Chandler Parsons has really helped Dirk get clean looks and that might have something to do with why he’s shooting the ball better. Last season, he had four feet of space from a defender just 44.4 percent of the time. This year, that number is up to a whopping 57.0, and he’s posted a ridiculous 64.8 effective field goal percentage on those shots. Teams might want to guard Dirk, you guys.

Sure, the minutes are going down, but if he’s open like this with a higher usage rate, he’ll be a first-round guy again. His owners only have to worry about an injury at this point.

High non-stars

As mentioned above, most of the columns in the future will be primarily about guys like these.

Tony Wroten - If you have paid any attention to the 76ers — and why wouldn’t you? — Tony Wroten has been dominating the stat sheet. Obviously daily fantasy league owners have been cashing in on Wroten’s low price and he’s really the poster child of usage rate.

He’s sitting at a usage of 31.8 on the season, is playing 33.5 minutes per game and the 76ers are running at a pace of 100.6 possessions per game while he’s on the floor. Wroten is actually shooting the ball somewhat well at a 49.2 effective field goal percentage on the year. That’s up from 45.2 in 2013-14 to go with his usage of 27.5.

Before we talk about what happens when Michael Carter-Williams, let’s just look at where he’s doing well. The big differences are his 58.8 percent from deep on catch-and-shoot — about 2.5 times what he did in 2013-14 — and 36.1 percent of his shots have come when he’s open (at least four feet of space from a defender), which is up from 28.6 last season. Basically, half of this is sustainable while I think we all know Wroten is not going to shoot almost 60 percent on catch-and-shoot treys.

OK, so what happens when Michael Carter-Williams comes back? It’s extremely complicated and it’s just a guessing game right now, but let’s start with what’s happened leading up to now.

Coach Brett Brown said a couple months ago that he’d like to use Wroten as a backup point guard. However he’s flip-flopped this month and said he’s going said Wroten could start at shooting guard. It’s also worth mentioning that Wroten ran with the first unit at practice last week next to MCW, Brandon Davies, Hollis Thompson and Henry Sims last week. It looks like it’s going down, but it’s definitely not set in stone.

While MCW and Wroten were on the court together last season, Wroten still had a solid usage rate of 24.9, which is probably about where he’ll be should they play together. He also had over 60 percent of his shots come on a layup or dunk, which is definitely going to help his efficiency. It’s also worth mentioning the 76ers had a net rating of -14.5 with the two, so that will look good to general manager Sam Hinkie.

Considering that their only other “point guard” on their roster is Alexey Shved, you’d think Brown is going to stagger their minutes a la Greg Monroe and Josh Smith. Wroten should still get his 30 minutes, post a usage rate in the 27 neighborhood and run at a high pace.

His fantasy owners have to hold on, but daily fantasy owners obviously aren’t going to want to pay big bucks for Wroten while he’s not doing quite as much.

Joe Johnson - He has a somewhat impressive 26.9 usage on the season. That’s up from 22.4 from last season, but we shouldn’t be too surprised by the increase. While Paul Pierce was on the bench last season, ISO Joe had a usage of 25.4, so his current usage is a little higher than expected.

He’s actually running more ISOs this season with a higher volume of plays coming with more than six seconds of touch time, but he’s been 18 percent better on effective field goal percentage. It might be due to coach Lionel Hollins, but that is a drastic change.

It looks pretty clear he’s going to destroy his ADP, but he won’t be this good. He’s at 46 on a per-game basis despite struggling at the line. He’ll probably be near 55-60.

Reggie Jackson - The Thunder need help. Before going down, Russell Westbrook had a league-leading 42.9, which is completely stupid (in a good way).

Well, that usage has passed on to R-Jax with a 28.2 on the season. Of course, he’s been very inefficient at 41.8 effective field goal percentage, has a weak 6.1 rebound rate and his turning the ball over way too much. Probably the worst stat of all is how 88.9 percent of Jackson’s field goals have come without an assist. That’s probably not going to change until Westy and Kevin Durant come back.

Jackson also had a whopping 31.5 usage rate last season in situations when he was on the floor without KD and Westy, so we have every reason to believe he'll be near 30 for a while. He should eat in a big way now and I’d still imagine he gets a high usage rate off the bench in close to 30 minutes. He should be a top-80 guy all year. DFSers are going to want to cash in on Jackson a lot until Westy gets back.

Gerald Green and Isaiah Thomas - Sunday night against the Warriors was one of the crazier finishes of the season. These two guys scored a combined 31 points in the fourth quarter to hand GSW their first loss. Thomas (40.8) and Green (34.2) had a combined usage rate of 75.0 in the fourth quarter, which is just great.

On the season, the Pizza Guy has a usage of 28.3 in his 24.5 minutes per game. If he keeps up that usage with his 34.1 assist percentage, he should be able to put up some low-end fantasy value in even 10-team leagues.

Meanwhile, Green actually has a higher usage at 29.0, but his minutes are down to just 21.0.Considering he doesn’t dime, it’s going to be tough to count on him even with that elite usage.

Chris Copeland - The Pacers need people to shoot the ball. Up until last night, it was Chris Copeland taking the shots. Even with the lame 12.4 usage on Monday, he is still sitting at 25.6 on the season, which ranks first among the players who have played in at least five of Indiana’s eight games.

He’s stuck in a slump, but his usage should be up there as long as he snaps out of it. His fantasy owners should hang in there.

Jusuf Nurkic - This guy is great. He has a 31.9 defensive rebounding rate to go with his 25.7 usage. A non-lottery rookie big man getting that kind of usage is just crazy talk. Mason Plumlee last season was pretty good and he was at just 17.2.

He’s just killing it on the glass and his 1.6 O-boards in 11.1 minutes. If he somehow gets minutes with JaVale McGee going down or Timofey Mozgov being dealt, he could be a beast. His per-36 averages sit at 16.9 points, 14.9 boards, 2.6 blocks and 1.9 dimes. He’d be a must-own in that case. If you want a deep-league stash, he’s a good candidate.

Usage to watch tonight: C.J. McCollum

Usually when a scorer comes off the bench, it leads to an inflated usage rate. C.J. McCollum had a ridiculous usage rate in 2013 summer league, but he’s dialed it down since. In fact, he has just a 17.7 usage on the season, which is down from 20.5 last season.

Nicolas Batum is out tonight and could miss some games. I’d like to see C.J.’s usage climb up to 24 with Dorell Wright likely to move into the starting lineup.

Honorable mention: Ramon Sessions - He is likely going to start tonight and could get big minutes against the Mavericks with Darren Collison out. Although, I’d be a little scared about his low usage rate.

While DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay are on the court, Sessions posted a usage rate of just 17.3 in his 10 minutes of action. On the other hand, he was at 28.7 without that tandem.

I’d guess he’ll likely be somewhere in between those numbers. So, if he’s getting 35 minutes, that should put him at around 13 or 14 shots.

Furthermore, the Mavericks aren’t allowing a very high usage rate to point guards, so I wouldn’t get too excited. Still, he’s just too cheap not to use.