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Lady Vols basketball March Madness bracket predictions for 2024 NCAA Tournament

cora hall, knoxville news sentinel
·3 min read

Lady Vols basketball is holding steady in bracket projections on Selection Sunday.

Tennessee (19-12) jumped one seed line in both ESPN and The Athletic's bracketology updates after it almost upset No. 1 South Carolina in the SEC Tournament. It remains there after the rest of conference tournaments finished this week going into the NCAA Tournament selection show on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Here's where the Lady Vols stand in NCAA Tournament projections on Selection Sunday:

ESPN projects Lady Vols as No. 7 seed

ESPN's Charlie Creme has Tennessee projected the highest as a No. 7 seed in Portland 4.

The Lady Vols would face No. 10 seed Maryland in the first round in Austin, Texas, with a potential second-round matchup with No. 2 seed Texas. Potential Sweet 16 opponents include No. 3 seed NC State, No. 6 seed West Virginia, No. 11 seed Green Bay or No. 14 seed Kent State.

USC is the projected No. 1 seed in Portland 4, which includes No. 4 seed Indiana and No. 5 seed Syracuse.

The Athletic has Lady Vols as No. 8 seed

The Athletic's Mark Schindler has kept the Lady Vols on the 8-seed line. Tennessee would face No. 9 seed North Carolina in the first round in Iowa City with a potential second-round matchup against Iowa and star player Caitlin Clark.

Potential Sweet 16 opponents include No. 4 seed Colorado, No. 5 seed Syracuse, No. 12 seed Richmond or No. 13 seed Eastern Washington.

Why predicting Tennessee's NCAA Tournament seed is difficult

Schindler has Iowa State, Florida State, Duke and Creighton on the 7-seed line over Tennessee in his latest projections. Creme has Iowa State and Florida State as No. 8 seeds, Creighton as a No. 7 seed and Duke as a No. 6 seed.

Tennessee forward Rickea Jackson (2) shoots the ball near South Carolina guard Chloe Kitts (21) during the first quarter of the SEC Women's Basketball Tournament game at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C. Saturday, March 9, 2024.
Tennessee forward Rickea Jackson (2) shoots the ball near South Carolina guard Chloe Kitts (21) during the first quarter of the SEC Women's Basketball Tournament game at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C. Saturday, March 9, 2024.

Schindler dove into the difficulties of projecting the Lady Vols' seeding due to significant injuries, including star forward Rickea Jackson's lower leg injury that sidelined her during Tennessee's 4-4 stretch in nonconference play.

The Lady Vols ranked No. 11 in nonconference strength of schedule and No. 1 in overall strength of schedule. They have one signature win from nonconference play over Oklahoma, which they won without Jackson, and have played No. 1 South Carolina tighter "than just about anyone this season" Schindler wrote – and they did it three times.

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But Tennessee doesn't have as strong of a resume in terms of quality wins as other teams in the mix for higher seeds. Iowa State has two wins over No. 16 Kansas State and two wins over No. 18 Baylor. Florida State has a head-to-head win over Tennessee – before Jackson got injured – and a win over No. 13 Virginia Tech.

"Watching that game against South Carolina, Tennessee looked like a team capable of hosting in the tournament," Schindler wrote. "That SEC tournament run seemed much stronger to me than a No. 8 seed, but Tennessee’s resume still is what it is, and it feels like a bit of a gray area to start projecting with the eye test."

Cora Hall covers University of Tennessee women’s athletics. Email her at cora.hall@knoxnews.com and follow her on Twitter @corahalll. If you enjoy Cora’s coverage, consider a digital subscription that allows you to access all of it.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Lady Vols basketball March Madness, 2024 NCAA bracket predictions