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Kansas basketball Big 12 Conference tournament prediction: How far will Jayhawks advance?

LAWRENCE — Kansas basketball nearly captured the Big 12 Conference tournament championship last year, before falling in the title game against Texas.

Now, the Jayhawks (22-9) will look to see how they’ll be able to fare this year. They’ll have to do so without their two lead stars, with coach Bill Self recently ruling out senior center Hunter Dickinson and graduate senior guard Kevin McCullar Jr. due to injury. But while depth won’t be something that’s in Kansas’ favor this week in Kansas City, the Jayhawks have shown an ability this season to pick up wins when they aren’t at full strength.

Kansas, a No. 6 seed, will open its Big 12 tournament stay Wednesday inside the T-Mobile Center against No. 11-seed Cincinnati (19-13) in the second round at 8:30 p.m. (CT) on ESPN2. From there, a win would see Self and company go up against Baylor (22-9), a No. 3 seed, on Thursday in the quarterfinals at 8:30 p.m. (CT). At that point, a spot in the semifinals would be on the line.

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“You can’t worry about (injuries),” graduate senior forward Parker Braun said this past weekend after the loss at Houston. “It’s got to be next-man up. As long as we’ve got five people on the floor, you’ve got to be ready to compete. And hopefully we can put ourselves in a better position than we did (Saturday). No matter who’s out there, it’s just a matter of competing. If you’re normally out there, you’re normally not, you’ve got to come out and compete — play for the name on the front of your jersey, not on the back. And we’ve all just got to bring it and hopefully try to play for another day, fight for another day.”

Here’s a prediction of how Kansas will perform in Big 12 tournament

Kansas 77, Cincinnati 68: Although Kansas doesn’t have its full compliment of players, that doesn’t mean an early exit in the Big 12 tournament. Junior forward KJ Adams Jr. steps up in Dickinson’s place to give the Jayhawks a presence inside. Freshman guard Johnny Furphy becomes the scoring presence the Jayhawks need without McCullar, as he continues to enjoy a special first season in college.

Kansas 65, Baylor 61: Kansas doesn’t get the scoring here that it might be looking for, but certainly shows up defensively. It’s a big game for Jayhawks redshirt senior guard Dajuan Harris Jr. in that regard. Graduate senior guard Nicolas Timberlake also hits some key 3s late.

Iowa State 80, Kansas 63: Kansas’ Big 12 tournament run ends here against a team that could win it. Depth becomes a factor, especially when foul trouble comes into play. Much like the regular season finale loss at Houston, Self turns to his walk-ons late with the game out of reach and the NCAA tournament looming.

Kansas basketball forward KJ Adams Jr. (24) shoots against Kansas State during the first half of a Sunflower Showdown game inside Allen Fieldhouse on March 5, 2024.
Kansas basketball forward KJ Adams Jr. (24) shoots against Kansas State during the first half of a Sunflower Showdown game inside Allen Fieldhouse on March 5, 2024.

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Jordan Guskey covers University of Kansas Athletics at The Topeka Capital-Journal. He is the National Sports Media Association’s sportswriter of the year for the state of Kansas for 2022. Contact him at jmguskey@gannett.com or on Twitter at @JordanGuskey.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas basketball Big 12 Conference tournament prediction for 2024