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Here's what the first women's college hoops seeding reveal means

cassandra negley
WNBA and women's college basketball reporter
·8 min read
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The NCAA women's selection committee released its first reveal of the top 16 seeds for the 2022 NCAA women's basketball tournament. And as if on cue, projected No. 1 seed Tennessee was upset by Auburn, which was winless in SEC play heading into Thursday night.

That's been the modus operandi of the 2021-22 women's basketball season, and we're certainly not complaining about it. The committee will provide two more reveals on Feb. 10 and Feb. 28 before Selection Sunday on March 13. Since it began doing it four seasons ago, 58 of the 64 teams on the initial reveal have held on to their top-four seeding by the tournament, Elle Duncan said on the ESPN halftime show announcing the reveal last week.

But nothing is set and there could be plenty of movement in seeding the way the season has gone so far. Here are the big takeaways and what to keep an eye on as the final weeks play out.

First NCAA selection committee reveal

The top 16 teams host first- and second-round games at their home court. The seeds are determined as of games through Wednesday. Four SEC teams and four Big 12 teams made the top 16.

The seeds broken into region with their regional seed and (overall seed):

Greensboro, North Carolina — No. 1 South Carolina (1), No. 2 Arizona (8), No. 3 Michigan (9), No. 4 Kansas State (16)

Spokane, Washington — No. 1 Stanford (2), No. 2 Texas (7), No. 3 UConn (11), No. 4 Georgia (15)

Bridgeport, Connecticut — No. 1 N.C. State (3), No. 2 Indiana (6), No 3 LSU (12), No. 4 Baylor (13)

Wichita, Kansas — No. 1 Tennessee (4), No. 2 Louisville (5), No. 3 Iowa State (10), No. 4 Oregon (14)

The tournament committee uses the S-curve to place teams in the four regional sites closest to them. It snakes through the list of teams, so that the No. 5 seed joins the regional with the No. 4 seed. The No. 9 joins the No. 1 and No. 8, etc. But one of the principles in seeding is that teams from the same conference should not be placed in the same region. That's how UConn, which would have landed in Bridgeport, ended up moving to Spokane. Iowa State at the 10 would have been there if not for Texas (7).

“We weren’t going to move teams from those lines just to put UConn in Bridgeport for geography purposes,” NCAA women’s basketball committee chair Nina King told the Associated Press. “At this point, they are a three seed. Maybe they play their way up to 1-2 line.”

The last time UConn was anything below a No. 2 seed was in 2005, and the last time they played a regional outside of Albany or Bridgeport (barring the 2021 single-site tournament) was in 2014.

The Stanford women's basketball team was a No. 1 seed in the initial seeding reveal by the NCAA selection committee.
The Stanford women's basketball team was a No. 1 seed in the initial seeding reveal by the NCAA selection committee. (Douglas Stringer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

What to watch for in tournament seeding

  • Connecticut has more to lose than gain — The Huskies are one of the takeaways strictly because of the historic aspect and the growing parity in Division I Power Five conferences. Injuries and COVID-19 pauses have impacted their season, and those were taken into account, but UConn will need a strong showing against Tennessee this weekend to boost its case, or at least hold on. It's the final nonconference game of their schedule and the Big East isn't competitive enough. The Huskies (12-4) lost to No. 1 overall seed South Carolina (NET ranking first), Louisville (NET 4), Oregon (NET 14) and Georgia Tech (NET 20). Notable wins are South Florida (NET 41), Notre Dame (NET 19), UCLA (NET 42) and a two-point different against top-scoring DePaul (NET 44).

  • Which No. 1 seed drops? — In the past four seasons, one initial No. 1 seed every year has dropped a seed line. If the committee were to redo the list even one day later, that team would be Tennessee since it lost to unranked Auburn (NET 92) on Thursday night. Louisville (NET 4) would likely move into the spot with better losses against NC State (NET 2) and overtime to Arizona (NET 8). No. 2 overall seed Stanford still has to face Oregon and Arizona. No. 3 overall N.C. State and Louisville have already faced off, but have the rest of the tough ACC to get through. And No. 6 overall Indiana could benefit from any miscues if it handles Iowa (NET 17) and Maryland (NET 21).

  • Kim Mulkey's LSU vs. Baylor — Oh, hello, Bridgeport. The Huskies might not currently be in their home-area regional, but a massive matchup could occur there. No. 12 overall seed LSU could meet head coach Kim Mulkey's former team, No. 13 overall seed Baylor. Of course, that's already in flux since LSU lost to unranked Arkansas the night of the reveal. The Tigers have a packed end of the SEC schedule that includes Ole Miss (NET 28), Georgia (NET 26) and Tennessee (NET 7).

  • Can Notre Dame, Oklahoma, BYU or Georgia Tech work themselves to host? — King told the Associated Press the committee also discussed these teams as potential top-16 seeds. Notre Dame might have the best chances starting with a matchup at home against N.C. State and two awaiting against Louisville. They'll also play Georgia Tech, which lost by a bucket to Louisville and has N.C. State to play. Oklahoma can prove its case against the other top Big 12 teams down the stretch.

Another national freshman of the year in the Big East?

The rescheduled UConn vs. DePaul game delivered with a battle of two national Freshman of the Year candidates.

The Blue Demons nearly pulled out a victory, one that would have snapped UConn's record of consecutive conference wins dating to March 12, 2013. Instead, the record extended to 167 thanks to freshman Caroline Ducharme's winning layup with 1.6 seconds on the clock. The Huskies won, 80-78, after trailing by nine at halftime and four with 3:03 to play.

DePaul, the highest-scoring team in the nation, had its own freshman success story. Aneesah Morrow, a 6-foot-1 freshman forward, had a 30-point, 14-rebound double-double with three steals and two assists in 36 minutes. She was 11-for-19 from the floor, and two attempts were missed 3s. It's a 30-point, 10-rebound stat line only three others have delivered against the powerhouse program.

It's no shock they're big names: Tennessee's Candace Parker, a two-time WNBA champion now with the Chicago Sky; Louisville's Angel McCoughtry, a four-time WNBA finalist and unrestricted free agent who reportedly signed with the Minnesota Lynx; and Notre Dame's Jackie Young, playing for her first title with the Las Vegas Aces. All were No. 1 draft picks.

It was her third consecutive game of at least 30/10, a mark no one hit since Alysha Clark for Middle Tennessee in 2010. Clark, a two-time champion, is with the Washington Mystics.

Morrow left briefly in the second half with a knee injury, but returned. She averages 20.8 points (ranking 11th nationally) and 12.6 rebounds (second).

It was a hard-fought win for UConn as the Huskies get healthy. Ducharme scored a team-high 19 points on 8-of-12 shooting as she continues to break out amid injuries to the Connecticut roster. Freshman and No. 1 recruit Azzi Fudd scored 15 points (6-10, 3-6 3s) with three steals in 22 minutes off the bench in her first game since a foot injury sidelined her in November. She and Ducharme combined for 17 of the Huskies' fourth-quarter points.

The two sides play again on Feb. 11 in Connecticut. It's right around the estimated return for Paige Bueckers, the reigning Naismith Player of the Year and freshman of the year.

What to watch this week

The full schedule is available here.

Tuesday

No. 3 N.C. State at No. 20 Notre Dame, 7 p.m. ET on ACCNX

No. 12 Georgia Tech at Duke, 7 p.m. ET on ACCNX

Wednesday

No. 25 Kansas State at No. 11 Iowa State, 7:30 p.m. ET on Big 12/ESPN+

No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 9 Baylor, 8 p.m. ET on Big 12/ESPN+

Thursday

No. 7 Tennessee at Florida, 6 p.m. ET on SECN+

Ole Miss at Missouri, 7 p.m. ET on SECN

No. 2 Stanford at UCLA, 10 p.m. ET on ESPN

Friday

No. 13 Texas at No. 9 Baylor, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2

No. 19 Oregon at No. 8 Arizona, 10 p.m. ET on Pac-12 Networks

Sunday

No. 7 Tennessee at No. 10 UConn, noon ET on FOX

Florida at No. 14 Georgia, 1 p.m. ET on SECN

No. 9 Baylor at No. 13 Texas, 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2

No. 21 Iowa at No. 6 Michigan, 6:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network