Can Heat still avoid play-in? Can Heat host No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game? Breaking it all down

The good news for the Miami Heat is it can’t fall any further in the Eastern Conference standings than the eighth-place spot it currently occupies. The bad news for the Heat is that’s about all the good news there is to report about its postseason position at the moment.

With the Heat losing to the Dallas Mavericks 111-92 on Wednesday night at Kaseya Center on the second night of a back-to-back and in its fifth game in seven days, the Heat fell deeper into play-in tournament territory after also needing to qualify for the playoffs through the play-in tournament last season.

“I think just our overall energy and approach to the game,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said when asked what frustrated the team about Wednesday’s double-digit home loss to the Mavericks. “It’s obviously a must-win for us and we just didn’t approach the game right. It’s a big game and it’s a pretty much a playoff game at this point in the year. We all as a collective group just felt like we could have brought more focus, more preparation.”

While the Heat (44-36) is guaranteed to finish the regular season no worse than No. 8 in the East, it enters Thursday one game behind the No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers (45-35) and two games behind the No. 6 Indiana Pacers (46-34) and No. 5 Orlando Magic (46-34) with just two games left to play in the regular season.

“I don’t even care what’s going on in the standings,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said, with the team wrapping up its regular season with back-to-back games against the struggling Toronto Raptors on Friday (8 p.m., Bally Sports Sun) and Sunday (1 p.m., Bally Sports Sun) at Kaseya Center. “I just want our team playing how we’re capable of playing, and that’s what we’re going to look to do these last two games.”

But the reality is Sunday’s road loss to the Pacers stripped the Heat of control of its own destiny in terms of avoiding the play-in tournament and Wednesday’s loss left the Heat relying on other teams just to host the East’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in tournament game.

Is there still a way for the Heat to avoid the play-in tournament, which features the seventh-through-10th-place teams competing for the final two playoff seeds in each conference? Yes, but it’s not likely.

There are only two remaining possible scenarios for the Heat to crack the top six in the East and narrowly escape the play-in tourney:

▪ The Heat needs to win its two final regular-season games, while the Magic drops its final two regular-season games (at 76ers on Friday and vs. Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday). But that’s not all, the 76ers also need to lose at home in their regular-season finale against the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday after defeating the Magic on Friday. In this scenario, the Heat, Magic and 76ers would all finish with 36 losses and the Heat would win the three-way tie because it would win the Southeast Division based on holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Magic after winning the regular-season series between the two teams 3-1. The Heat would be the No. 6 seed because the division winner wins a tie with teams that don’t win their division.

▪ The Heat needs to win its final two regular-season games, while the Magic drops its final two regular-season games and the Pacers also lose their final two regular-season games (at Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday and vs. Atlanta Hawks on Sunday). In this scenario, the Heat, Magic and Pacers would all finish with 36 losses and the Heat would also win this three-way tie because it would win the division based on holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Magic.

The Heat could actually finish as high as fifth in the East if a combination of both of those scenarios happen:

▪ If the Heat wins its final regular-season games, while the Magic loses its final two regular-season games, the Pacers lose their final two regular-season games and the 76ers lose at home in their regular-season finale against the Nets on Sunday after defeating the Magic on Friday, all four teams would finish with 36 losses. The Heat would win this four-way tie because it would win the division based on holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Magic, entering the playoffs as the East’s No. 5 seed.

According to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities report, the Heat entered Thursday with just an 11.1 percent chance of finishing with a top-six seed in the East to make the playoffs without needing to take part in the play-in tournament. Basketball Reference’s modeling has the Heat’s most likely finish listed at 54.8 percent for eighth place in the East.

The Heat could even finish as high as fifth place in the East if it wins its final two

“You never know what can happen,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said. “The biggest thing for us to get these last two [games].”

If neither of those low-percentage scenarios transpire, the Heat will be competing for a playoff berth in the play-in tournament next week.

How is the play-in tournament structured?

The seventh-place team in each conference hosts the eighth-place team in a play-in game on Tuesday (could be Wednesday if the game is in Philadelphia because the Philadelphia Flyers close their regular season at Wells Fargo Center on Tuesday night). The winner of this matchup earns the seventh playoff seed.

The ninth-place team in each conference hosts the 10th-place team in another play-in game on Wednesday. The loser of this matchup is eliminated from playoff contention, while the winner of this matchup goes on the road to take on the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game on Friday, April 19 for the right to the eighth playoff seed.

If play-in tournament-bound, the Heat will be in the East’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 game. As of now, the Heat would be headed for Philadelphia to take on Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and the 76ers in that play-in game as the East’s eighth-place team.

But there are a few possible scenarios for the Heat to close the regular season at No. 7 to host that play-in game:

▪ The Heat needs to win its two final regular-season games, while the 76ers loses at least one of their two final games. In this scenario, the Heat and 76ers (if they drop one of their final two games) would both finish with 36 losses. But the Heat would finish as the East’s No. 7 seed ahead of the No. 8 76ers because it would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of having a better conference record than Philadelphia. The Heat would host the 76ers in the East’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game. *In this scenario, the Magic would win one of its final two games to stay in the top six.

▪ The Heat needs to win its final two regular-season games, while the Magic drops its final two regular-season games. In this scenario, the Heat and Magic would both close the regular season with 36 losses. But the Heat would finish as the division winner and the East’s No. 7 seed based on holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Magic. The Heat would host the Magic in the East’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game. In this scenario, the 76ers would win their final two games and Pacers would win at least one of their final two games to finish in the top six.

The Heat will spend the final few days of the regular season doing what it can, while hoping for some help from others, to avoid the play-in tournament. The Heat will also spend the final weekend of the regular season trying to build some momentum after hitting another rough patch.

Wednesday’s loss to the Mavericks dropped the Heat to 17-27 this season against teams currently with winning records. The Heat has dropped four of its last five games against such teams.

“Sometimes this league can just really humble you and that’s what happened tonight,” Spoelstra said after falling to the Mavericks. “So we’re going to regroup. We’ve had to do that several times this year and we keep on finding a way to bounce back. That’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to focus on the next 48 hours to get ready for another battle.”