Getting Defensive: Week 15

It’s that time again—at least in most fantasy football leagues.

It’s the playoffs.

After weeks of setting lineups and making waiver claims and the highs of victory and the lows of defeat, you have guided your team to the fantasy postseason. Peel off a few more wins, and you will be crowned champion. But lose one more game, and that’s that—the season’s over.

This time of year, the pressure ratchets up. Every lineup call matters that much more, because every fantasy point matters that much more. This team of year, the kicker or defense you trot out can be the difference between moving on and calling it a (disappointing) campaign.

And where defenses are concerned, that changes the dynamic.

During the regular season, I rarely carry more than one defense. When Baltimore’s Week 13 bye or San Francisco’s Week 9 off week rolled around I might try to make room to hang onto them, but other than that, it’s usually streaming based on matchups. When a matchup isn’t favorable or bye rolls around, it’s bye all right.

Buh-bye.

However, while carrying multiple defenses in season wastes valuable roster space that can be used on lottery tickets or upside plays, it’s a different situation in the postseason. Depth doesn’t matter as much as maximizing production from your starters. Given that, I’m more willing to carry a second defense—especially if my usual starter is staring at a bad matchup.

As an example, the Buffalo Bills are fourth for the season among defenses in points after a decent Week 14 performance in Kansas City. But this week the Bills host a Dallas Cowboys team that leads the NFL in scoring and ranks 31st in fantasy points surrendered to team defenses this year.

With all due respect to Greg Rousseau, Terell Bernard, Jordan Poyer and the Bills, a compelling argument can be made for giving them the week off in favor of a streamer with a favorable matchup.

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THE NO-DOUBTERS

San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona Cardinals)

There are no such concerns with the 49ers this week. Since Week 10, the Niners are the highest-scoring defense in fantasy football. The Niners are seventh in the NFL in total defense, first against the run, first in scoring at just 15.8 points allowed per game, first in the NFC in takeaways and seventh in the league with 40 sacks. Simply put, San Francisco is rolling, and while the Cardinals have looked better offensively with Kyler Murray under center Arizona remains an above average matchup in terms of fantasy points allowed to defenses.

Cleveland Browns (vs. Chicago Bears)

On one hand, the Cleveland Browns remain the NFL’s No. 1 defense in terms of both total yards and passing yards allowed. On the other hand, the Browns have allowed 93 points over their past three games, and the team has dropped to the bottom of the top-10 in fantasy points among defenses. However, the Browns have amassed 20 takeaways and 38 sacks and have maybe the best defensive player in the league on the roster in edge-rusher Myles Garrett, and Sunday the Browns host a Bears team that has surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to defenses this season.

Kansas City Chiefs (at New England Patriots)

The Chiefs came up short against the Buffalo Bills last week, but the defense can’t be blamed for the setback—Kansas City gave up just 20 points to Josh Allen and Co., and it wasn’t Chris Jones who was offside on the game’s pivotal play. The Chiefs have quietly played solid defense this season—Kansas City is sixth in total defense, third in scoring defense and sit fifth in the league in sacks. Meanwhile, while the Patriots scored 21 points in the first half last week, they also scored all of 13 points in the three games before that combined.

Dallas Cowboys (at Buffalo Bills)

In some respects, it’s understandable if some fantasy managers are a bit reluctant to start the Cowboys in Buffalo—the Bills are certainly capable of piling up yardage and points when firing on all cylinders, and for the season the team has surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to defenses. But the Cowboys are fantasy football’s highest-scoring defense in 2023, largely due to a penchant for big plays. Dallas has piled up 21 takeaways, 39 sacks and scored a staggering six defensive touchdowns. The team is also third in total defense and fourth in scoring defense. Outside San Francisco, no team is on a bigger roll than Big D.

New Orleans Saints (vs. New York Giants)

The NFC South appears to be the division that no one wants to win, but statistically speaking the best defense in the league’s worst division belongs to the Saints—New Orleans is sixth in the league against the pass and 10th in the league in points allowed. The Saints have also been reasonably productive from a fantasy perspective as well, checking in ninth in fantasy points. The Giants are riding a three-game winning streak under “Tommy Cutlets,” but they also still lead the league in sacks allowed and fantasy points surrendered to defenses.

Baltimore Ravens (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

After Miami’s epic collapse against the Tennessee Titans last week, the Ravens are in sole possession of the AFC’s best record, and the Baltimore defense deserves a lot of credit for that 10-3 record. The Ravens are second in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense, fourth against the pass, lead the league with 49 sacks, have tallied 19 takeaways and have more fantasy points than any team in the AFC. The Jaguars scored 27 points last week in Cleveland, but Trevor Lawrence also threw three interceptions and was sacked four times.

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STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!

Miami Dolphins (vs. New York Jets)

For 57 minutes last week, the Miami Dolphins played fairly well defensively against the Tennessee Titans. Of course, the problem is that NFL games are 60 minutes long, and in those other three minutes Miami’s defense completely vanished. Meanwhile. In New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson sailed past 300 passing yards in a Week 13 beatdown of the 7-5 Houston Texans, because apparently nothing makes sense anymore. These teams met just a couple of weeks ago, In that game, the Dolphins tallied seven sacks, logged two interceptions and scored a touchdown on defense—something the Dolphins have now done in three consecutive contests.

Philadelphia Eagles (at Seattle Seahawks)

This is the reality of where the Eagles defense is in fantasy football after the team was rolled by first the San Francisco 49ers and then the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles aren’t playing the pass well. The linebackers are average. And even the vaunted pass rush isn’t getting home nearly as frequently as it did a year ago. However, the Eagles’ only touchdown last week came courtesy of a fumble return, and over the past month the Seattle Seahawks have surrendered the 10th-most fantasy points to defenses. Add in the possibility of a Drew Lock start, and you have a good “get right” spot for the Eagles.

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have problems. After somehow managing a 7-4 start, the Steelers have lost consecutive games to two-win teams—at home. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has already been ruled out for Week 15, meaning another start for Mitchell “Not as Good as Kenny Pickett” Trubisky. Both of Pittsburgh’s top-two edge-rushers are in the NFL’s concussion protocol. The Colts have issues of their own after getting rolled in Cincinnati, but the Indy pass rush should have success against a suspect Steelers’ line. If Gardner Minshew can avoid putting the defense in bad spots, the Colts have more than a little fantasy appeal this week.

Cincinnati Bengals (at Minnesota Vikings)

The bloom is officially off the rose with Joshua Dobbs—the Vikings quarterback has gone from Twin Cities folk hero to four-interception disaster to benched in favor of Nick “What Do We Have to Lose” Mullens in the lowest-scoring NFL game in 16 years a week ago. Over the past two weeks, the Vikings have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to defenses. The Bengals have quietly been a top-15 fantasy defense and are coming off a solid performance in last week’s beatdown of the Indianapolis Colts. The Bengals have legitimate top-five fantasy upside this week.

Los Angeles Rams (vs. Washington Commanders)

The Commanders are coming off one of their best weeks in the last three months in Week 14. That Week 14 was Washington’s bye week tells you all you need to know about how the season has gone in the nation’s capital—after a 2-0 start the Commanders have lost nine of 11. Washington has also been very kind to opposing defenses—the Commanders have surrendered the second-most sacks (58) in the NFL, Washington’s 23 giveaways are the third-most in the league and the Commanders have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season.

Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina Panthers)

We’re going to hit you with some breaking news here—the Carolina Panthers are a terrible football team. Through 13 weeks (and one win) the Panthers are 30th in total offense and scoring offense, averaging a whopping 15.2 points per game. The Panthers have a -8 turnover differential and have surrendered 51 sacks—fourth-most in the NFL. The Falcons haven’t been a splashy defense this year, but they have been better than many realize—the Falcons are quietly ninth in the NFL against the pass and 12th in scoring defense.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year, Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks