Florida football’s FPI projections for the entire 2023 regular season
Florida football looks to turn the page on its second-straight losing season on the collegiate gridiron with a bounce-back effort in the second year of Billy Napier’s tenure as head coach. While the climb back to respectability is a steep one, the program has been relentless in its efforts to restore glory to the Orange and Blue.
ESPN recently published its Football Power Index preseason rankings for the upcoming 2023 college football campaign with the Gators landing in the top 25 at No. 18 with a little less than four months remaining ahead of the opening kickoff. Additionally, ESPN Analytics’ Matchup Predictor has Florida with a greater than 50% chance of winning eight of their games.
Take a look below at a breakdown of each of the 12 games on Florida football’s 2023 schedule along with the overall numbers provided by the FPI.
at Utah Utes (Aug. 31)
AP Photo/Gary McCullough
Win probability: 29.7%
Opponent FPI rank: No. 15
Last time: Florida 29, Utah 26 (in Gainesville 2022)
vs. McNeese State (Sept. 9)
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Win probability: 99.0%
Opponent FPI rank: N/A
Last time: First-ever meeting between schools and second-ever SEC game for McNeese State.
vs. Tennessee Volunteers (Sept. 16)
AP Photo/Wade Payne
Win probability: 51.7%
Opponent FPI rank: No. 12
Last time: Tennessee 38, Florida 33 (in Knoxville 2022)
vs. Charlotte 49ers (Sept. 23)
Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Win probability: 96.3%
Opponent FPI rank: No. 118
Last time: First-ever meeting between schools
at Kentucky Wildcats (Sept. 30)
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Win probability: 48.4%
Opponent FPI rank: No. 28
Last time: Kentucky 26, Florida 16 (in Gainesville 2022)
vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (Oct. 7) [HOMECOMING]
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Win probability: 90.4%
Opponent FPI rank: No. 73
Last time: Vanderbilt 31, Florida 24 (in Nashville 2022)
at South Carolina Gamecocks (Oct. 14)
Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun
Win probability: 58.9%
Opponent FPI rank: No. 42
Last time: Florida 38, South Carolina 6 (in Gainesville 2022)
vs. Georgia Bulldogs (Oct. 28)
Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun
[NEUTRAL FIELD – JACKSONVILLE]
Win probability: 13.8%
Opponent FPI rank: No. 3
Last time: Georgia 42, Florida 20 (in Jacksonville 2022)
vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (Nov. 4)
Brad McClenny-USA TODAY NETWORK
Win probability: 66.2%
Opponent FPI rank: No. 30
Last time: Florida 63, Arkansas 35 (in Gainesville 2020)
at LSU Tigers (Nov. 11)
Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun
Win probability: 18.5%
Opponent FPI rank: No. 4
Last time: LSU 45, Florida 35 (in Gainesville 2022)
at Missouri Tigers (Nov. 18)
Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun
Win probability: 58.1%
Opponent FPI rank: No. 40
Last time: Florida 24, Missouri 17 (in Gainesville 2022)
vs. Florida State Seminoles (Nov. 25)
Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Win probability: 50.3%
Opponent FPI rank: No. 14
Last time: FSU 45, Florida 38 (in Tallahassee 2022)
Overall
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Win/Loss: 6.8-5.2
WinOut%: 0.0%
6Wins%: 82.2%
WIN DIV%: 3.0%
WIN CONF%: 0.5%
PLAYOFF%: 0.2%
MAKE NC%: 0.0%
WIN NC%: 0.0%
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