Five things to know about Ole Miss heading into Week 8 contest
LSU will meet Ole Miss for the 111th time in Magnolia Bowl series history on Saturday afternoon.
It will be Lane Kiffin’s second trip to Baton Rouge as Ole Miss head coach and Brian Kelly’s first taste of the rivalry.
LSU has won the last six of eight but dropped one last year in Oxford. Ole Miss is No. 7 in the country and unbeaten, coming off a 48-34 win over Auburn.
The Rebels have relied on a dynamic rush attack that’s top 10 in the country in efficiency and total rushing. LSU is a slight favorite after opening as the underdog.
LSU will look to build on the win in Gainesville with a signature win in Baton Rouge. Here are five things to know about the Rebels.
How Ole Miss got to 7-0
Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Ole Miss hasn’t played an easy schedule, but it hasn’t been a gauntlet either.
The Rebels’ best win is a 22-19 victory over Kentucky. The offense didn’t have their best day and was below average in EPA/rush and overall success rate.
Kentucky was threatening to score with under a minute left in the fourth and a Jared Ivey strip sack sealed the deal for Ole Miss.
Ole Miss has had games against Troy and Tulsa in which it failed to cover. The Rebels also messed around with Vanderbilt for a bit but eventually pulled away. However, the offense responded after that Kentucky performance by scoring 100 points in the last two weeks.
Many of the top contributors are new to Oxford, with Kiffin hitting the portal hard. The group doesn’t have a glaring weakness, and it’ll be a good test for LSU.
They have an elite run game
Syndication: The Tennessean
LSU’s run game was tested against Florida and will be again with Ole Miss coming to town.
On the ground, the Rebels rank second in yards per game, ninth in success rate, eighth in yards per carry, and 10th in EPA/play. They lead the country in runs of 20+ yards.
There’s a two-headed monster at running back with Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans, who have combined for 1,325 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Judkins and Evans are both explosive and physical and provide Ole Miss with plenty of ways to attack the defense. Throw in QB Jaxson Dart, who has run for 371 yards and averages 7.0 yards per carry, and the list of ways to stop this unit shrinks.
They’ll use a lot of motion, offer support with H-backs, run zone read and pull offensive linemen. The LSU defense is going to have to remain disciplined and tackle well at all levels.
This offense is explosive
Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker is the only quarterback in the conference to attempt passes with 20-plus air yards at a higher rate than Ole Miss’ Dart.
Dart is completing just 13.4% of those passes, but the sheer volume at which he attempts them is still noteworthy. On the ground, nearly 20% of the Rebels’ rushing attempts go for 10 yards or more.
On the whole, Ole Miss ranks 10th in 20-yard play rate. LSU has struggled to prevent big plays, ranking outside the top 100 in 20-yard plays allowed.
For LSU, this is a concern. The big play issue has been established and it’s hard to believe it’s been fixed in a week. LSU will need to take some steps forward in that department to win this game.
This is the best defense Lane Kiffin has had at Ole Miss
Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Ole Miss ranks 16th in defensive SP+ and 18th in scoring defense.
It’s a unit that has progressively gotten better. In 2020, the Rebels were 118th in scoring defense and in 2021 the unit was 51st. The offense became dangerous the minute Kiffin arrived in Oxford, but with a real defense, this team has taken the next step.
The Rebels rank 19th in sack rate and have several players who can get after the quarterback. It’s not an elite unit, but they rank 26th in yards per play and allow 3.9 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per pass.
They do a pretty good job at preventing big plays too, although Auburn found some last week. Opponents are completing 62.9% of passes against this defense, which puts the Rebels just 76th in the country.
This is a good defense, but it’s not impossible to beat.
Players to know
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
We’ve spoken about Dart at quarterback and what Ole Miss brings to the table on the ground with Judkins and Evans, but here are some other guys to keep an eye on.
WR Jonathan Mingo
According to PFF, Mingo is the top-graded wide receiver in the SEC. His 507 yards are second only to Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt. He’s averaging 23.0 yards per catch, which is the best among qualified receivers.
If LSU sells out to stop the Ole Miss run game, Wingo can make them pay.
DB A.J. Finley
Few defensive backs in the SEC have as much experience as Finley. Athlon and Phil Steele had him as third-team all-conference entering the year, but he might end up on the first team.
Finley has been a top-tier safety thus far. He’s lined up at free safety, in the slot, and in the box. No safety in the SEC has recorded more tackles. He’s picked off two passes and forced a fumble.
DEs Tavius Robinson, Cedric Johnson, and Jared Ivey
Ole Miss can bring it on a pass rush thanks to three of the best edge rushers in the SEC. This group has combined for 63 pressures and eight sacks.
Ivey, the Georgia Tech transfer, leads the way with four sacks and two forced fumbles. LSU’s offensive line is going to need one of its best games.
