Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Sit Decisions: Play Josh Downs

Quarterback

Start: Dak Prescott, Cowboys

The Cowboys have had a strange start to the season. They rank last in the NFL in plays run within seven points of their opponents. Dallas is averaging 17.2 plays per game in seven-point situations. This is to say that it’s been comically rare to see them in competitive games. That’s not good for fantasy output, especially when a few of those blowouts have been aided by defensive touchdowns from the Dallas defense. A date with a weak Chargers defense but an elite LA offense should keep things high-scoring and competitive in Week 6.

Start: Matthew Stafford, Rams

Vegas has the Rams with a 27.75 implied team total. That is the fourth-highest of the week and higher than teams including the Chargers, Bengals, and Eagles. Stafford’s opponent, Arizona, ranks 29th in EPA per dropback allowed and 30th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.

Sit: Daniel Jones, Giants

Per Pro Football Focus, Jones has the sixth-highest rate of allowed pressures and has invited the second-most pressures in total. When he isn’t walking into defenders, his offensive line is letting them make it to him in record time. No quarterback has been pressured within two seconds of the snap more frequently than Danny Dimes. This shouldn’t come as a surprise given that PFF has his offensive line ranked dead last in pass-blocking grade. To compound the issue, Jones ranks 30th in yards per attempt when pressured and 34th in PFF passing grade.

Sit: Joshua Dobbs, Cardinals

Dobbs rightfully got some love as a streaming option in Week 5. Despite the sleeper hype, Dobbs turned in a QB22 overall performance. Things go from bad to worse this week as the Cardinals have a meager, 20.75 implied team total. Arizona’s sub-zero pass rate over expected isn’t going to do Dobbs any favors either.

Running Back

Start: Alexander Mattison, Vikings

Since Cam Akers joined the Vikings, Mattison has seen 60 percent of the team’s carries and has run a route on 45 percent of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks. He is the only Minnesota back to see a carry inside the five in his past two games. Mattison and the Vikings are slight favorites over the Bears this week. The Bears rank 20th in EPA per rush attempt allowed and have ceded the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season.

Looking for more fantasy football content? Rotoworld has you covered. Watch Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry weekdays at noon ET LIVE on Peacock and the Rotoworld Football Show on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays wherever you get your podcasts.

Start: Raheem Mostert, Dolphins

Most fantasy managers know to start Mostert with De’Von Achane sidelined this week, but the number of players whom he shouldn't be started over is shockingly small. My Week 6 rankings have six running backs ahead of Mostert. Miami ranks fifth in running back expected fantasy points as a team this year. Mostert is second in the league in both rushing and receiving fantasy points over expected. His team has the highest implied total of the week and is favored by 13.5 points versus the Panthers. This is what a blowup spot looks like

Sit: Jerome Ford, Browns

The Browns are tied with the Giants for the lowest implied team total at a laughably low 15.25 points. That is almost certainly in anticipation of Deshaun Watson being ruled out. Since Kareem Hunt re-joined the Browns, Ford has seen 37 percent of the team’s carries. Until Watson returns, Ford will be stuck as a committee back on the worst offense in football.

Sit: Miles Sanders, Panthers

Speaking of low team totals, the Panthers at 17.5 points are only narrowly escaping the Browns/Giants zone. They are the second-biggest underdogs of the week. Miles Sanders’ share of the Panthers’ carries has fallen in every game since Week 2. Chuba Hubbard has out-carried him in back-to-back games.

Wide Receiver

Start: K.J. Osborn, Vikings

To no one’s surprise, Justin Jefferson’s hamstring injury immediately opened up more opportunities for Osborn in Week 5. Jefferson only ran a route on 66 percent of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks last week. Osborn immediately set season-highs in targets per route run (.18) and target share (19 percent).

Osborn will be tasked with playing the Jefferson role in the offense this week. I don’t expect that to go well in the long run, but versus a Chicago defense that ranks 31st in EPA per dropback allowed, it will be enough to get Osborn into FLEX territory for Week 6.

Start: Josh Downs, Colts

Directly from my Week 6 Waiver Wire article:

“Gardner Minshew has played more than half of the Colts’ snaps in three games this season. Downs averaged 7.7 targets, six catches, and 63.7 yards in those games. His numbers drop to 2.5 catches for 32 yards in games that see Anthony Richardson take the majority of the snaps.”

Downs is seeing a high volume of easy catches from Minshew, but his seven-yard target depth still leaves room for him to rack up yards on these looks (this will be relevant to another player in just a moment).

Sit: Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants

Through three games, Robinson has a target depth of three yards downfield. His peak air yards share was 13 percent in Week 3. For comparison, Downs earned a 30 percent target share last week. Robinson may pace his team’s receivers in targets, but his looks are so low-value that it isn’t worth chasing him as a FLEX play.

Sit: Jahan Dotson, Commanders

Dotson was billed as the rising star on Washington’s offense during the offseason, but he has failed to separate from Curtis Samuel through five games. Samuel has him beat in targets per route run. Dotson’s target share of 16 percent is only one point higher than Samuel's. On a low-scoring team, Dotson isn’t seeing the ball enough to rank as a top-36 receiver this week.

Tight End

Start: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys

Ferguson’s route rate has risen in every game since Week 2. His target share of 17 percent is tied for 12th in the NFL. His usage is that of a top-end TE2, but the right matchup can sneak him into the TE1 ranks. He plays in a game with a 50.5-point total and gets a defense allowing the most passing yards per game in the league on Sunday.

Start: Sam LaPorta, Lions

Most fantasy managers will be starting LaPorta if they have him, but, like Mostert, there should be no hesitation on starting him over all but roughly three tight ends. LaPorta is fifth in target share and third in air yards share among tight ends this year. He is first in plenty of other stats.

For teams that got an elite tight end and backed him up with LaPorta, I would even consider starting LaPorta in the FLEX going forward.

Sit: David Njoku, Browns

Njoku ranks 18th among tight ends in target share and 38th in air yards share. He has yet to see his first end zone target of the season and that doesn’t look likely to happen with P.J. Walker potentially under center. Njoku can be cut in shallow fantasy leagues.

Sit: Tyler Higbee, Rams

Unlike most of the fades for Week 6, Higbee’s team is in a great spot versus the Cardinals. The bad news is that there’s no room in the LA offense for Higbee. In Cooper Kupp’s first game of the 2023 season, he and Puka Nacua combined for 68 percent of the Rams’ targets and 80 percent of their air yards. Higbee, in turn, earned a nine percent target share and was targeted on eight percent of his routes.