All eyes on Arizona State and Arizona as Pac-12’s fate hangs in the balance

Last week, on July 19, University of Colorado Chancellor Phil DeStefano said this, per Buffaloes Wire:

“‘I’m eagerly awaiting to hear what the commissioner (George Kliavkoff) has to say (at Pac-12 media day). But at this point, the 10 (Pac-12) schools are staying together and awaiting a message from the commissioner,” DiStefano told The Post. “(CU’s) goal is to stay within the Pac-12 and have a media deal coming up shortly. That’s our goal. And I believe the presidents and chancellors of the Pac-12 are together on that.”

One week later — on July 26 — we have Colorado seemingly out the door to the Big 12, which creates an existential crisis for the Pac-12.

If George Kliavkoff cannot keep Colorado from bolting, which would represent a massive failure on his (and the Pac-12 CEO Group’s) part, there’s one scenario he has to be able to fend off to ensure the Pac-12’s survival.

Let’s talk about that huge scenario and the other many scenarios now in play, all because Kliavkoff and the Pac-12 could not land the plane and get a media deal done:

ASU AND U OF A HISTORY

Remember this: Arizona and Arizona State turned the Pacific-8 Conference into the Pac-10 in 1978, when they joined from the Western Athletic Conference. The Pac-8 consisted of the Northwest schools and the California schools. The conference formerly known as the Pacific Coast Conference and the Athletic Association of Western Universities finally went inland to get ASU and the U of A.

The idea that the Arizona schools therefore represent the key jigsaw puzzle piece to Pac-12 survival is in line with history.

GEOGRAPHY

Arizona schools need to have a presence in Texas, not just California, for recruiting. Arizona State football, under former coach Todd Graham a decade ago, made it a point to recruit the state of Texas. The Arizona schools would not be out of place in the Texas-anchored Big 12 (which has several schools in the state). USC in the Big Ten is a weird geographical reality, but the Arizona schools in the Big 12 would feel relatively natural by comparison.

PAC-12 OPTIONS

If the Pac-12 loses the Arizona schools, it could theoretically replace them with San Diego State, SMU and one of UNLV, Boise State or Fresno State. That would clearly not increase the overall value or prestige of the league.

Losing the Phoenix market would be a huge blow. Losing two schools with a foot in both Texas and Southern California in terms of recruiting and enrollment would represent a substantial loss San Diego State would not sufficiently replace.

This isn’t the main reason the Pac-12 would die if the Arizona schools leave, but it would be the catalyst for a series of events we’ll explain below:

OREGON AND WASHINGTON

If the Arizona schools leave and the Pac-12 cannot continue as a conference with at least 10 members and a somewhat robust football and basketball identity, that certainly feels like the beginning of the end.

Oregon and Washington wanted to stay in a 12-team conference that was competitive and would fetch an appreciably large price point for media rights. It wasn’t the dream scenario for the Ducks and Huskies — not when USC and UCLA left for the Big Ten — but it would have been good enough.

If the Arizona schools leave, Oregon and Washington are not going to stick around in an eight-team conference consisting of the Pacific Northwest schools, Stanford, Cal, Utah and San Diego State. There’s no way Phil Knight accepts that. Period.

The Big 12 and Big Ten would probably fight for the Ducks and Huskies.

UTAH TO THE BIG 12

If the Arizona schools join Colorado in a move to the Big 12, Utah would make obvious sense as a fourth school to jump to the Big 12 and create a 16-team Big 12.

If Colorado goes to the Big 12, that’s 13 schools. If the Arizona schools add on, that’s 15. There would need to be a 16th school. Utah would be the most logical choice.

IF THE ARIZONA SCHOOLS STAY IN THE PAC-12

If the Arizona schools stay in the Pac-12, the Big 12 would probably consider UConn or Memphis, adding a team in the Central or Eastern time zone. Colorado would mark the end of Big 12 westward expansion, probably cementing the Pac-12’s survival. If the Arizona schools leave, as we noted above, Utah is probably gone, too, and that kneecaps the Pac-12 by wiping out its two-time defending football champion and a school that is very successful in women’s basketball, gymnastics and other sports. You can see how much of a hinge point the Arizona schools really are.

BOISE STATE

The Pac-12 and Boise State aren’t a good fit academically. Football value might make the Pac-12 reconsider, but replacing the Arizona schools with Boise State — in addition to San Diego State and SMU — would not be a net gain for the Pac-12 in terms of TV revenue, eyeballs or enrollment numbers on the academic side.

Boise State, if added to the Pac-12, would not make Oregon and Washington reconsider leaving for the Big 12 or Big Ten.

FRESNO STATE

Fresno State’s presence in California — and not that far from Los Angeles (farther than San Diego by roughly 100 miles) — ostensibly gives the Pac-12 a chance to create a deeper presence in California, especially if it can add San Diego State. However, Fresno State’s football brand is not as robust as Boise State’s. If we have established that Boise State isn’t going to make Oregon and Washington reconsider leaving the Pac-12, Fresno State isn’t going to be any different.

UNLV

If Boise State and Fresno State don’t move the needle, neither will UNLV. That will not solve the Oregon-Washington exit problem, either. The Pac-12 conducts many of its biggest games and tournaments in Las Vegas, so the Rebels might be a stopgap option as an addition, but that’s far less than a full, complete solution.

GONZAGA IN HOOPS

The Pac-12 could add Gonzaga in basketball only, but we’re talking about basketball. That’s not going to solve any football problems for Oregon, Washington or anyone else.

AAC OPTIONS

Brett Yormark already brought the AAC’s better football brands — Cincinnati, Houston and UCF — into the Big 12. Why would any of those schools rethink being in the Big 12 now, in light of the Colorado news and the possibility the Pac-12 could splinter and die?

OREGON STATE TO THE BIG 12

This seems like a remote possibility, but in college sports realignment, it shouldn’t be completely written off. Many highly improbable plot twists emerge in this industry.

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Story originally appeared on Trojans Wire