Eric Rueb makes his annual boys hoops division tourney picks and they are suspiciously good
The high school basketball playoffs are here and while we’ll have to wait for March Madness, February Fun doesn’t have bad ring to it.
The Rhode Island Interscholastic League boys and division tournaments begin on Thursday and Friday with preliminary-round play before getting into next week’s quarterfinal games. Next weekend, neutral sites will host semifinal games that set us up for seven championship games — three boys, four girls — in downtown Providence from March 4 through 6.
So, who’s going to get the chance to play in the Amica Mutual Pavilion?
While I get the allure of playing downtown in an arena, people who didn’t even go to the school worship simply because they grew up unaware there was a Division I college hoops team south of Warwick. Games at a packed gym like at Brown, Bryant, Rhode Island College or Providence’s Alumni Hall are more enjoyable from my perspective because of the atmosphere they provide. It might be a very bad take and I’m sure I’ll be over it once the games are happening.
(Also, can we stop pretending the Ryan Center isn’t the state’s best basketball arena? It looks nicer, the seating situation is better, it’s not 20 degrees in there and you can park — for free!)
As the godfather of the high school sports prediction game, I’m not about to stop now. I’ve watched the games, ran the numbers, checked the stats — and flipped my coin. It’s time to tell you who I think is going to raise trophies and celebrate on the court in Providence.
Eric Rueb’s Boys Basketball Division Tournament predictions
Division I
The race for the D-I title is a three-team contest and I’m terrified not including the fourth team in the conversation. There’s one team I think is a lock to play in Providence and, honestly, I’m more excited about the potential of crazy conspiracy theories if they don’t boat race everyone on their way to the final.
With 13 teams qualified for the postseason, Division I has five preliminary round games Thursday and Friday.
There’s probably plenty of Hendricken alums extremely offended the fourth-seeded Hawks have to play this week, but the extra game is only going to help this young team, which I’ll take to beat No. 13 Westerly.
My Townie-red blood won’t let me pick No. 12 Central over No. 5 East Providence, but if the Townies start looking toward the quarterfinals, the long and athletic Knights could win this one. Picking against a Gary Reedy-led team in the first round is kind of like picking against Tom Izzo, so give me No. 6 Cumberland over No. 11 Mount Pleasant as the Clippers force the Kilties to play at a pace they don’t want to.
The one upset I’ll ride with is No. 10 Narragansett over No. 7 Portsmouth, but only because I’m planning to hit the game and the trash I’ll have to eat if I’m wrong will be fun to deal with. I was looking forward to picking No. 9 North Kingstown as a darkhorse in this tourney, but I’ve seen what No. 8 Smithfield does on its home court and that’s an advantage too large to ignore.
The quarterfinals is where the madness begins in Division I.
Smithfield is absolutely going to put a scare into No. 1 Classical, but the Purple’s abundance of scorers will prove to be too much. If No. 2 Barrington is at full health, they’ll get by Narragansett; if the Eagles aren’t at full health, I’ll still take them.
La Salle’s length will prove to be too much for Cumberland to handle. I just need it on the record that I’d take East Providence over Hendricken at a neutral site, but a quarterfinal game at Hendricken is going to be a tough ticket, so I’ll go with the Hawks. Hope they let me keep my diploma.
My finals are simple — give me Classical over Hendricken and La Salle over Barrington. The larger court at RIC, host of the semifinals, favors the Purple so much against the Hawks and, while I don’t report high school injuries, I do factor them into my picks. Plus, I’m not a conspiracy guy but I do enjoy listening to them and the crowd for Classical-La Salle is probably the biggest seller of the entire tourney.
So, who wins? The Purple. La Salle’s height is going to be a problem, but on a massive court, I don’t think the Rams can play at a breakneck pace.
Division II
Spoiler alert: I’m taking Lincoln. I was a year early on them last year, but this year the Lions have proven just how good they are and I believe it’s enough to even overcome the Rueb Jinx.
This tournament is going to provide the most drama because it always does. The potential matchups are absolutely delicious.
No. 5 Rogers gets one final home game in its old gym up against No. 12 Pilgrim and they won’t close the place down with an L. My brain tells me that playing at No. 6 Shea’s small court is going to benefit Middletown, but I’m going to ride with the Raiders knowing I’m going to get meme’d to death in my Instagram DMs. I want to give No. 7 Burrillville the same type of credit playing on its home court, but I’ve seen what happens when the Broncos go cold and that’s why I’ll lean on No. 10 South Kingstown in the upset. Give me No. 8 Cranston West over No. 9 Coventry simply because, in a mascot fight, a Falcon would destroy a Knotty Oaker.
In the quarters, No. 1 Lincoln rolls Cranston West and No. 2 St. Raphael takes care of business against South Kingstown. Ticket prices on StubHub are going to be through the roof as No. 3 Tolman hosts Shea, but I love the Raiders’ size and I’ll take them to pull off the upset. The Panther Pen isn’t going to love this, but Rogers has been great down the stretch and I’m giving them the upset over No. 4 Johnston.
In the semifinals, Lincoln beats Rogers and if that pick is wrong, it’s beating Johnston. St. Raphael and Shea should be interesting but I’ll go with the Saints simply because I believe a bigger court favors their up-and-down style of play.
(And not to bring conspiracies up again, but you think Ruben Garces isn’t going to be coaching in a game on the floor he played on in college for the state's most favorite team?)
In the final, I'm taking Lincoln and the Lions might be the best team that steps on that court in March, putting on the most impressive performance the AMP will see for the entirety of the month.
Division III
Last year, D-III provided the craziness and hopefully the tournament will do the same this winter, which will make looking back on these picks hilarious.
The preliminary round sees five games and we’re not wasting time making these picks, and while they’re chalky — give me No. 4 Moses Brown over No. 13 Paul Cuffee, No. 5 North Smithfield over No. 12 Exeter-West Greenwich, No. 6 West Warwick over No. 11 Davies and No. 8 Prout over No. 9 Blackstone Valley Prep — I will take No. 10 Ponaganset over No. 7 Mount St. Charles simply because I’m apparently all-in on conspiracy theories for this tournament. I hate myself.
No. 1 North Providence entered the season as the favorite and enters the playoffs the same way, so I’ll take the Cougars over No. 8 Prout. The tourney will be more fun the more games Kyle Delves plays, so we’ll take No. 2 Juanita Sanchez over Ponaganset. Nobody has been hotter down the homestretch than No. 3 Central Falls and the Warriors will come out to play against No. 6 West Warwick. Last year, I picked Moses Brown to win Division III and they got bounced in the quarters and, since I hold grudges, I’ll take North Smithfield to beat the Quakers this year.
A grudge victory for the Northmen over North Providence in the semifinals would be a good story, but there’s a bigger one I’m thinking about, so I’m taking the Cougars. It would be tremendous if Delves posted 40 to get Juanita Sanchez to the final and make it a rematch of last year, but Central Falls is playing its best basketball and the right time of the season, so, again, Warriors.
But I’m a sucker for a good story and North Providence playing and winning for teammate Gary Cleveland is one I’d love to write as I’m fighting through tears. Give me the Cougars over the Warriors, giving NP its second straight Division III title.
This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Eric Rueb's picks for the 2024 RIIL Boys Basketball Division Tournaments
